Sims
Every game we've simmed, newest slate run for each. The pick is the side the sim favors; the gap is sim minus books, in percentage points; final shows who won, with ✓ when the sim's pick was right. Gaps over 15 are highlighted: usually the sim is missing news.
Season so far
Every finished game the sim called before it started, against the books' pick. Split = games where the sim and the books picked different sides, the sim's record on those. Log-loss: lower is better, it punishes confident misses. A few weeks of games is noise; read the trend, not one night.
| Sport | Games | Sim | Books | Split | Sim log-loss | Books log-loss | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 38 | 25-13 | 28-10 | 3-6 | 0.596 | 0.545 | books |
| NFL | 13 | 6-7 | 9-4 | 1-4 | 0.743 | 0.694 | books |
| UFC | 14 | 7-7 | 12-2 | 1-6 | 0.684 | 0.670 | books |
By gap
Gap = how far the sim and the books disagree on the winner, in points, either direction. All sports together.
| Gap | Games | Sim | Books | Split | Sim log-loss | Books log-loss | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-5 pts | 29 | 15-14 | 19-10 | 0-4 | 0.689 | 0.666 | books |
| 6-10 pts | 12 | 8-4 | 11-1 | 1-4 | 0.554 | 0.544 | books |
| 11+ pts | 24 | 15-9 | 19-5 | 4-8 | 0.636 | 0.553 | books |
Prop ideas
Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price. Each NBA game page lists the sim's top 10.