Houston @ San Antonio
Tip-off 6:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for SAS
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has San Antonio winning 66.7% of 5,000 games, against 64% from the books. The median score is San Antonio 114, Houston 108. In the most typical game: San Antonio leads by as many as 11 in the first half; San Antonio leads 59-55 at the break. San Antonio's 12-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Fox puts San Antonio ahead for good with 5:53 left in the 2nd. Smart finds Durant 3 times. Fox goes 4 of 11 off San Antonio's bench. San Antonio leads by 12 at its high point in the 4th. Houston gets within 5. Durant scores last; final 114-107 San Antonio.
Houston wins 1,663 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 14+ threes (it wins 54%), wins the turnover battle (43%) or gets 28+ from Durant (42%). The matchup to watch is San Antonio's ball security against Houston's hands. San Antonio covers -5.5 in 54% and the game goes over 227.5 in 36%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Mar 8), San Antonio won in San Antonio, 145-120.
Tonight San Antonio is without Tobias Harris.
San Antonio went 62-20 last season (2nd best record in the NBA).
Houston went 52-30 last season (8th best record in the NBA).
San Antonio won the season series 3-1.
Jae'Sean Tate missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
San Antonio: new: Maliq Brown (no NBA minutes last season), Ja'Kobi Gillespie (no NBA minutes last season), Tarris Reed Jr. (no NBA minutes last season).
Houston: gone: Josh Okogie (now UTA); new: Fred VanVleet (no NBA minutes last season), Marcus Smart (from LAL), Bogdan Bogdanović (from LAC), Oscar Tshiebwe (from UTA), Julian Phillips (from CHI).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
SAS: Vassell, Wembanyama, Castle, Champagnie, Harper
Bench: Barnes, Kornet, Fox, Johnson (+6 under 8 min)
Out: Harris, Quaintance
Maybe: Fox (50% to play, minutes scaled), Johnson (50% to play, minutes scaled)
HOU: Thompson, Durant, Smith, VanVleet, Sengun
Bench: Smart, Eason, Sheppard, Adams, Bogdanović, Tshiebwe (+4 under 8 min)
Maybe: Sheppard (50% to play, minutes scaled), Adams (50% to play, minutes scaled)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +2.9 points vs their usual FG% against Alperen Sengun and +1.4 against Julian Champagnie.
The stoppers on threes: Victor Wembanyama held shooters 4.9 points under their usual 3P%, Amen Thompson held shooters 2.3 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Victor Wembanyama sees Sengun on 20% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: San Antonio's ball security vs Houston's hands.
San Antonio turned it over on 12.4% of possessions last season (4th fewest).
Houston forced turnovers on 12.9% (21st most), with 8.5 steals (14th) and 5.8 blocks (3rd) a game.
Shot diets.
San Antonio: 42.2% of shots from three (15th), 32.9% at the rim (7th).
Houston: 35.0% of shots from three (28th), 29.1% at the rim (21st).
San Antonio's defense: 5th fewest rim attempts allowed, 8th lowest opponent three-point % (35.2%).
Houston's defense: 11th fewest rim attempts allowed, 7th lowest opponent three-point % (35.1%).
San Antonio's offense runs through De'Aaron Fox on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 4.9 a game last season, 34th most in the NBA.
0.95 points per play (top 26%), turnover on 16% of them.
When it goes to the roller: San Antonio's roll men scored 1.26 (1st in the league). Victor Wembanyama alone: 1.25.
Houston faced 19.6 of those a game (2nd most) and ranked 4th defending them. Against the roll man: 1st.
In the sim: 0.88 Fox-to-Wembanyama baskets a game (last season: 1.72).
With 4+ Fox assists, San Antonio wins 70.9%.
Houston's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation. It ranked 18th, 4th, 13th, 16th in points per play on them.
San Antonio's defense ranked 11th, 2nd, 5th, 15th against those same four.
Kevin Durant in one split:
Spot-up shots: 1.31 points per play (top 4%), 3.8 a game.
Isolation: 1.02 points per play (top 21%), 4.4 a game.
San Antonio's defense: 15th against isolation, 11th against spot-up shots.
Where Houston can hit back:
- San Antonio was 25th defending off-screen shots. Kevin Durant ran 1.6 a game at 0.91 per play
- San Antonio was 21st defending putbacks. Steven Adams ran 2.5 a game at 0.97 per play
One check against real life:
De'Aaron Fox scored 17.3 points in his 3 games against Houston last season, 20 of them on Mar 8. In our 5,000 sims: 9.0.
Kevin Durant scored 22.2 points in his 4 games against San Antonio last season, 24 of them on Jan 28. In our 5,000 sims: 22.4.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- San Antonio leads by as many as 11 in the first half; San Antonio leads 59-55 at the break
- San Antonio's 12-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- Fox puts San Antonio ahead for good with 5:53 left in the 2nd
- Smart finds Durant 3 times
- Fox goes 4 of 11 off San Antonio's bench
- San Antonio leads by 12 at its high point in the 4th. Houston gets within 5. Durant scores last; final 114-107 San Antonio
How Houston wins (1,663 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 12.4 a game in its wins, 10.6 in its losses. At 14 or more, it wins 54%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 43%
- Durant scores 28 or more: then it wins 42%
Across all 5,000 sims:
San Antonio wins 66.7%. The books (Draft Kings) have San Antonio at 64%, ESPN's model at 73%.
Median score: San Antonio 114, Houston 108
San Antonio covers -5.5 in 54%
Over 227.5 in 36%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Fred VanVleet assists line 6.5, sim 4.1; Fred VanVleet pts+ast line 18.5, sim 15.1; Marcus Smart threes line 1.5, sim 1.1
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.0 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Dylan Harper under 21.5 pts+ast (87%, sim avg 15.5)
- Dylan Harper under 22.5 pts+reb (86%, sim avg 16.3)
- Dylan Harper under 17.5 points (85%, sim avg 12.2)
- Alperen Sengun under 9.5 rebounds (84%, sim avg 7.0)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (HOU score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | pts+ast | 20.5 | 12.2 | 6% | under 94% | |
| De'Aaron Fox | pts+reb | 18.5 | 10.9 | 6% | under 94% | |
| De'Aaron Fox | assists | 5.5 | 3.2 | 10% | under 90% | |
| De'Aaron Fox | rebounds | 3.5 | 1.9 | 12% | under 88% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | assists | 6.5 | 4.1 | 12% | under 88% | |
| De'Aaron Fox | points | 14.5 | 9.0 | 12% | under 88% | |
| Dylan Harper | pts+ast | 21.5 | 15.5 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Dylan Harper | pts+reb | 22.5 | 16.3 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Dylan Harper | points | 17.5 | 12.2 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Alperen Sengun | rebounds | 9.5 | 7.0 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Tari Eason | threes | 1.5 | 0.8 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Alperen Sengun | assists | 5.5 | 3.9 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Tari Eason | pts+reb | 13.5 | 9.9 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Amen Thompson | pts+reb | 24.5 | 19.9 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Alperen Sengun | pts+reb | 27.5 | 22.9 | 22% | under 78% | |
| De'Aaron Fox | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Dylan Harper | assists | 4.5 | 3.3 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Alperen Sengun | pts+ast | 23.5 | 19.8 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Dylan Harper | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | pts+ast | 18.5 | 15.1 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Tari Eason | points | 8.5 | 6.3 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Amen Thompson | pts+ast | 20.5 | 17.3 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Amen Thompson | points | 16.5 | 13.5 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Devin Vassell | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.8 | 71% | over 71% | |
| Alperen Sengun | points | 18.5 | 15.9 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Victor Wembanyama | threes | 1.5 | 2.4 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Devin Vassell | threes | 1.5 | 2.4 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Tari Eason | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.7 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | pts+ast | 15.5 | 13.1 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Devin Vassell | pts+ast | 13.5 | 16.9 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Marcus Smartnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Devin Vassell | pts+reb | 15.5 | 18.8 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Stephon Castle | assists | 6.5 | 7.9 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Kevin Durant | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.7 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Julian Champagnie | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.6 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Amen Thompson | rebounds | 7.5 | 6.5 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Kevin Durant | pts+ast | 28.5 | 25.7 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Marcus Smartnew team | pts+ast | 10.5 | 8.9 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Amen Thompson | assists | 4.5 | 3.8 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | assists | 1.5 | 1.2 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Stephon Castle | pts+ast | 23.5 | 26.3 | 65% | over 65% | |
| Kevin Durant | pts+reb | 29.5 | 27.0 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | points | 13.5 | 11.8 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | pts+reb | 19.5 | 17.6 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Kevin Durant | points | 24.5 | 22.4 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.1 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Devin Vassell | points | 11.5 | 14.0 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | pts+reb | 15.5 | 13.9 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Victor Wembanyama | assists | 3.5 | 3.1 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Victor Wembanyama | pts+reb | 36.5 | 39.3 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Kevin Durant | threes | 1.5 | 2.1 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Victor Wembanyama | rebounds | 10.5 | 11.6 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Julian Champagnie | threes | 2.5 | 2.2 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Marcus Smartnew team | points | 7.5 | 6.7 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Dylan Harper | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.1 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Victor Wembanyama | pts+ast | 28.5 | 30.7 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Marcus Smartnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.3 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Victor Wembanyama | points | 25.5 | 27.7 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | points | 11.5 | 11.0 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Kevin Durant | assists | 3.5 | 3.3 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.9 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Stephon Castle | pts+reb | 22.5 | 23.9 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Julian Champagnie | pts+reb | 14.5 | 15.7 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Devin Vassell | assists | 2.5 | 2.9 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Stephon Castle | points | 17.5 | 18.4 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Stephon Castle | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Stephon Castle | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Julian Champagnie | assists | 1.5 | 1.7 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Julian Champagnie | points | 9.5 | 10.1 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Julian Champagnie | pts+ast | 11.5 | 11.8 | 50% | under 50% |