Denver @ Oklahoma City

Tip-off 6:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for OKC

Sim

86%

Books

74%

ESPN model

75%

Median score

108-123

DEN - OKC

OKC -8.5

70%

sim cover rate

Total 235.5

39%

over · sim avg 231

Moneyline

-340

OKC · DEN +270

NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details

How the sim saw it

The sim has Oklahoma City winning 86.0% of 5,000 games, against 74% from the books. The median score is Oklahoma City 122, Denver 108. In the most typical game: Oklahoma City leads by as many as 25 in the first half; Oklahoma City leads 69-44 at the break. Oklahoma City's 11-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Gilgeous-Alexander puts Oklahoma City ahead for good with 12:00 left in the 1st. Jokić finds Gordon 3 times. McCain goes 7 of 10 off Oklahoma City's bench. Oklahoma City leads by 33 at its high point in the 4th. Denver gets within 16. Nembhard scores last; final 124-108 Oklahoma City.

Denver wins 699 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 13+ threes (it wins 25%), wins the turnover battle (33%) or gets 30+ from Jokić (22%). The matchup to watch is Denver's ball security against Oklahoma City's hands. Oklahoma City covers -8.5 in 70% and the game goes over 235.5 in 39%.

Full breakdown

Last time they met (Apr 10), Denver won in Denver, 127-107.
Tonight Oklahoma City is without Nikola Topić.
Tonight Denver is without Julian Strawther.
Oklahoma City went 64-18 last season (best record in the NBA).
Denver went 54-28 last season (5th best record in the NBA).
Oklahoma City won the season series 3-1.
Chet Holmgren missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Ajay Mitchell missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Isaiah Hartenstein missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Alex Caruso missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Brooks Barnhizer missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Christian Braun missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Cameron Johnson missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Zeke Nnaji missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Oklahoma City: gone: Luguentz Dort (now ATL), Isaiah Joe (now DET), Aaron Wiggins (now ATL); new: Jared McCain (from PHI), Aday Mara (no NBA minutes last season), Josh Dix (no NBA minutes last season), Bennett Stirtz (no NBA minutes last season).
Denver: gone: Tim Hardaway Jr. (now MIA), Bruce Brown (off the league rosters), Peyton Watson (now CLE); new: DeMar DeRozan (from SAC), Marvin Bagley III (from WAS), Ryan Nembhard (from DAL), Cam Whitmore (from WAS), Tyus Jones (from ORL), Trevon Brazile (rookie, #35 pick), Bryce Hopkins (rookie, #49 pick).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
OKC: Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, J. Williams, Wallace, Mitchell
Bench: Hartenstein, Caruso, J. Williams, McCain, K. Williams (+4 under 8 min)
Out: Oweh, Sorber, Topić
No NBA history: Dix (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies)
DEN: Murray, Jokić, Braun, Johnson, Gordon
Bench: DeRozan, Bagley, Nembhard, S. Jones, Whitmore, T. Jones (+4 under 8 min)
Out: Strawther
Maybe: S. Jones (50% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Brazile (#35 pick, 3 min from past rookies), Hopkins (#49 pick, 3 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +7.2 points vs their usual FG% against DeMar DeRozan and +3.0 against Nikola Jokić.
The stoppers on threes: Aaron Gordon held shooters 11.9 points under their usual 3P%, Christian Braun held shooters 4.4 points under their usual 3P%.
The matchup to watch: Denver's ball security vs Oklahoma City's hands.
Denver turned it over on 12.0% of possessions last season (3rd fewest).
Oklahoma City forced turnovers on 15.6% (2nd most), with 9.7 steals (2nd) and 5.5 blocks (6th) a game.
Shot diets.
Oklahoma City: 42.6% of shots from three (13th), 30.0% at the rim (15th).
Denver: 40.8% of shots from three (17th), 29.2% at the rim (19th).
Oklahoma City's defense: 2nd fewest rim attempts allowed, 25th lowest opponent three-point % (36.9%).
Denver's defense: 6th fewest rim attempts allowed, 3rd lowest opponent three-point % (34.9%).
Oklahoma City's offense runs through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 9.2 a game last season, 2nd most in the NBA.
1.20 points per play (top 4%), turnover on 9% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Oklahoma City's roll men scored 1.11 (15th in the league). Chet Holmgren alone: 1.33.
Denver faced 17.1 of those a game (18th most) and ranked 18th defending them. Against the roll man: 11th.
In the sim: 1.14 Gilgeous-Alexander-to-Holmgren baskets a game (last season: 1.42).
With 8+ Gilgeous-Alexander assists, Oklahoma City wins 89.7%.
Denver's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 1st, 4th, 8th, 14th in points per play on them.
Oklahoma City's defense ranked 18th, 1st, 2nd, 4th against those same four.
Nikola Jokić in one split:
Spot-up shots: 1.11 points per play (top 32%), 2.4 a game.
Post-ups: 1.13 points per play (top 25%), 5.5 a game.
Oklahoma City's defense: 4th against post-ups, 18th against spot-up shots.
Where Denver can hit back:
- Oklahoma City was 18th defending spot-up shots. Cameron Johnson ran 3.2 a game at 1.28 per play
- Oklahoma City was 9th defending off-screen shots. Nikola Jokić ran 1.2 a game at 1.45 per play
One check against real life:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 35.0 points in his 3 games against Denver last season, 36 of them on Feb 27. In our 5,000 sims: 35.5.
Nikola Jokić scored 23.7 points in his 3 games against Oklahoma City last season, 32 of them on Mar 9. In our 5,000 sims: 24.3.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Oklahoma City leads by as many as 25 in the first half; Oklahoma City leads 69-44 at the break
- Oklahoma City's 11-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- Gilgeous-Alexander puts Oklahoma City ahead for good with 12:00 left in the 1st
- Jokić finds Gordon 3 times
- McCain goes 7 of 10 off Oklahoma City's bench
- Oklahoma City leads by 33 at its high point in the 4th. Denver gets within 16. Nembhard scores last; final 124-108 Oklahoma City
How Denver wins (699 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 12.8 a game in its wins, 10.6 in its losses. At 13 or more, it wins 25%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 33%
- Jokić scores 30 or more: then it wins 22%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Oklahoma City wins 86.0%. The books (Draft Kings) have Oklahoma City at 74%, ESPN's model at 75%.
Median score: Oklahoma City 122, Denver 108
Oklahoma City covers -8.5 in 70%
Over 235.5 in 39%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): DeMar DeRozan points line 13.5, sim 11.0; DeMar DeRozan pts+reb line 15.5, sim 13.4; Jared McCain points line 9.5, sim 7.8
Caution: tonight the sim sits 0.9 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Nikola Jokić under 10.5 assists (93%, sim avg 6.7)
- Aaron Gordon under 20.5 pts+reb (88%, sim avg 14.4)
- Aaron Gordon under 16.5 pts+ast (84%, sim avg 11.7)
- Aaron Gordon under 14.5 points (83%, sim avg 10.0)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.

Most typical game, play by play (DEN score first)

Quarter 1

Q1OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores at the rim0-2

Q1DENJamal Murray turns it over0-2

Q1OKCKenrich Williams scores in the paint0-4

Q1DENJamal Murray turns it over0-4

Q1OKCJalen Williams misses three, offensive rebound0-4

Q1OKCJalen Williams scores at the rim (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)0-6

Q1DENJamal Murray scores in the paint (assist Nikola Jokić)2-6

Q1OKCJaylin Williams misses corner three2-6

Q1DENTyus Jones misses in the paint2-6

Q1OKCCason Wallace misses at the rim2-6

Q1DENAaron Gordon scores at the rim4-6

Q1OKCAday Mara turns it over4-6

Q1DENNikola Jokić misses in the paint4-6

Q1OKCIsaiah Hartenstein turns it over4-6

Q1DENMarvin Bagley III misses at the rim4-6

Q1OKCJalen Williams scores corner three (assist Ajay Mitchell)4-9

Q1DENDeMar DeRozan misses at the rim4-9

Q1OKCJared McCain scores three4-12

Q1DENBryce Hopkins scores at the rim (assist Nikola Jokić)6-12

Q1OKCJalen Williams misses in the paint6-12

Q1DENJamal Murray misses from midrange6-12

Q1OKCBrooks Barnhizer misses three6-12

Q1DENNikola Jokić misses three6-12

Q1OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses in the paint, offensive rebound6-12

Q1OKCJared McCain scores from midrange6-14

Q1DENJamal Murray misses three, offensive rebound6-14

Q1DENNikola Jokić scores in the paint8-14

Q1OKCAjay Mitchell goes to the line, makes 1 of 28-15

Q1DENJamal Murray misses three8-15

Q1OKCJalen Williams scores in the paint8-17

Q1DENJamal Murray misses from midrange8-17

Q1OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander turns it over8-17

Q1DENDeMar DeRozan turns it over8-17

Q1OKCCason Wallace scores at the rim (assist Alex Caruso)8-19

Q1DENCameron Johnson turns it over8-19

Q1OKCJalen Williams misses at the rim8-19

Q1DENChristian Braun misses three8-19

Q1OKCChet Holmgren scores in the paint8-21

Q1DENMarvin Bagley III scores in the paint (assist Cameron Johnson), and one11-21

Q1OKCAjay Mitchell turns it over11-21

Q1DENChristian Braun goes to the line, makes 1 of 212-21

Q1OKCJalen Williams misses from midrange12-21

Q1DENAaron Gordon scores corner three (assist Christian Braun)15-21

Q1OKCAlex Caruso scores corner three (assist Isaiah Hartenstein)15-24

Q1DENDeMar DeRozan scores in the paint17-24

Q1OKCCason Wallace scores at the rim17-26

Q1DENTrevon Brazile misses in the paint17-26

Q1OKCBrooks Barnhizer scores three (assist Isaiah Hartenstein)17-29

Q1DENRyan Nembhard misses at the rim17-29

Q1OKCAjay Mitchell misses in the paint17-29

Q1DENAaron Gordon misses at the rim17-29

Q1OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander goes to the line, makes 2 of 217-31

Q1DENTyus Jones misses in the paint17-31

Quarter 2

Q2OKCAday Mara goes to the line, makes 2 of 217-33

Q2DENAaron Gordon misses in the paint17-33

Q2OKCAday Mara scores at the rim17-35

Q2DENNikola Jokić misses at the rim, offensive rebound17-35

Q2DENChristian Braun scores at the rim (assist Cameron Johnson)19-35

Q2OKCChet Holmgren goes to the line, makes 2 of 219-37

Q2DENCameron Johnson misses from midrange19-37

Q2OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander turns it over19-37

Q2DENNikola Jokić goes to the line, makes 1 of 220-37

Q2OKCJosh Dix scores in the paint20-39

Q2DENCameron Johnson scores at the rim22-39

Q2OKCChet Holmgren misses in the paint22-39

Q2DENAaron Gordon scores in the paint24-39

Q2OKCAjay Mitchell misses three, offensive rebound24-39

Q2OKCAjay Mitchell scores in the paint24-41

Q2DENNikola Jokić scores at the rim (assist Ryan Nembhard)26-41

Q2OKCAlex Caruso misses corner three26-41

Q2DENDeMar DeRozan misses from midrange26-41

Q2OKCAjay Mitchell scores at the rim26-43

Q2DENAaron Gordon scores at the rim (assist Jamal Murray)28-43

Q2OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three28-43

Q2DENDeMar DeRozan goes to the line, makes 2 of 230-43

Q2OKCJalen Williams scores at the rim30-45

Q2DENChristian Braun misses at the rim30-45

Q2OKCJared McCain scores in the paint (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)30-47

Q2DENDaRon Holmes II goes to the line, makes 2 of 232-47

Q2OKCChet Holmgren scores at the rim (assist Jalen Williams)32-49

Q2DENJamal Murray misses in the paint32-49

Q2OKCAlex Caruso turns it over32-49

Q2DENNikola Jokić misses in the paint32-49

Q2OKCIsaiah Hartenstein misses in the paint32-49

Q2DENAaron Gordon misses in the paint32-49

Q2OKCJared McCain scores at the rim32-51

Q2DENJamal Murray misses at the rim32-51

Q2OKCAjay Mitchell scores at the rim32-53

Q2DENJamal Murray scores in the paint34-53

Q2OKCIsaiah Hartenstein scores in the paint34-55

Q2DENAaron Gordon goes to the line, makes 1 of 235-55

Q2OKCJared McCain scores corner three (assist Brooks Barnhizer)35-58

Q2DENNikola Jokić scores in the paint (assist Jamal Murray)37-58

Q2OKCAjay Mitchell misses at the rim, offensive rebound37-58

Q2OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses at the rim37-58

Q2DENMarvin Bagley III scores corner three (assist Nikola Jokić)40-58

Q2OKCJared McCain misses corner three, offensive rebound40-58

Q2OKCChet Holmgren scores three (assist Ajay Mitchell)40-61

Q2DENAaron Gordon scores at the rim42-61

Q2OKCChet Holmgren scores three (assist Ajay Mitchell)42-64

Q2DENCameron Johnson scores at the rim (assist Nikola Jokić)44-64

Q2OKCAjay Mitchell goes to the line, makes 2 of 244-66

Q2DENNikola Jokić turns it over44-66

Q2OKCJosh Dix scores corner three (assist Jared McCain)44-69

Q2DENAaron Gordon misses three44-69

Q2OKCKenrich Williams misses in the paint44-69

Q2DENNikola Jokić turns it over44-69

Quarter 3

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander turns it over44-69

Q3DENJamal Murray misses corner three44-69

Q3OKCAjay Mitchell scores at the rim44-71

Q3DENRyan Nembhard misses three44-71

Q3OKCKenrich Williams misses at the rim44-71

Q3DENJamal Murray scores at the rim (assist Nikola Jokić)46-71

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores in the paint46-73

Q3DENChristian Braun misses in the paint, offensive rebound46-73

Q3DENJamal Murray turns it over46-73

Q3OKCJalen Williams misses three46-73

Q3DENNikola Jokić scores three (assist Ryan Nembhard)49-73

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses in the paint49-73

Q3DENJamal Murray misses from midrange49-73

Q3OKCIsaiah Hartenstein misses at the rim, offensive rebound49-73

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores in the paint, and one49-76

Q3DENTyus Jones misses corner three49-76

Q3OKCJared McCain misses at the rim, offensive rebound49-76

Q3OKCKenrich Williams misses three49-76

Q3DENSpencer Jones scores at the rim51-76

Q3OKCJalen Williams scores at the rim51-78

Q3DENChristian Braun misses corner three, offensive rebound51-78

Q3DENDeMar DeRozan misses three51-78

Q3OKCJalen Williams scores at the rim51-80

Q3DENCameron Johnson misses at the rim, offensive rebound51-80

Q3DENAaron Gordon misses from midrange51-80

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses in the paint, offensive rebound51-80

Q3OKCIsaiah Hartenstein scores at the rim51-82

Q3DENDeMar DeRozan misses from midrange51-82

Q3OKCCason Wallace turns it over51-82

Q3DENChristian Braun scores three (assist DeMar DeRozan)54-82

Q3OKCAlex Caruso misses from midrange54-82

Q3DENDeMar DeRozan scores from midrange56-82

Q3OKCIsaiah Hartenstein scores at the rim (assist Jaylin Williams)56-84

Q3DENCameron Johnson scores at the rim (assist Nikola Jokić)58-84

Q3OKCAjay Mitchell scores at the rim58-86

Q3DENJamal Murray scores in the paint60-86

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses in the paint, offensive rebound60-86

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander goes to the line, makes 1 of 260-87

Q3OKCAjay Mitchell scores in the paint (assist Alex Caruso)60-89

Q3DENAaron Gordon scores three (assist Nikola Jokić)63-89

Q3OKCChet Holmgren misses in the paint63-89

Q3DENAaron Gordon misses at the rim63-89

Q3OKCChet Holmgren misses at the rim63-89

Q3DENChristian Braun misses at the rim, offensive rebound63-89

Q3DENDeMar DeRozan scores at the rim65-89

Q3OKCJalen Williams goes to the line, makes 2 of 265-91

Q3DENDeMar DeRozan misses from midrange65-91

Q3OKCAjay Mitchell scores three65-94

Q3DENCameron Johnson misses corner three65-94

Q3OKCChet Holmgren scores at the rim (assist Jaylin Williams)65-96

Q3DENNikola Jokić goes to the line, makes 2 of 267-96

Q3OKCChet Holmgren misses three67-96

Q3DENCameron Johnson scores three (assist DeMar DeRozan)70-96

Q3OKCJaylin Williams turns it over70-96

Q3DENRyan Nembhard misses in the paint, offensive rebound70-96

Q3DENZeke Nnaji misses three70-96

Q3OKCJared McCain scores from midrange (assist Jaylin Williams)70-98

Q3DENDeMar DeRozan scores in the paint (assist Nikola Jokić)72-98

Q3OKCChet Holmgren misses three72-98

Q3DENMarvin Bagley III scores at the rim (assist Nikola Jokić)74-98

Quarter 4

Q4OKCKenrich Williams scores in the paint74-100

Q4DENJamal Murray misses from midrange74-100

Q4OKCCason Wallace scores from midrange74-102

Q4DENChristian Braun scores in the paint (assist Jamal Murray)76-102

Q4OKCJared McCain scores from midrange76-104

Q4DENDeMar DeRozan misses in the paint76-104

Q4OKCChet Holmgren scores at the rim76-106

Q4DENNikola Jokić misses in the paint, offensive rebound76-106

Q4DENTyus Jones turns it over76-106

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses at the rim76-106

Q4DENNikola Jokić misses three76-106

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores at the rim76-108

Q4DENCam Whitmore turns it over76-108

Q4OKCJaylin Williams misses three76-108

Q4DENNikola Jokić scores in the paint (assist Jamal Murray)78-108

Q4OKCIsaiah Hartenstein goes to the line, makes 1 of 278-109

Q4DENCameron Johnson scores at the rim80-109

Q4OKCAjay Mitchell scores at the rim (assist Jalen Williams)80-111

Q4DENNikola Jokić turns it over80-111

Q4OKCJalen Williams goes to the line, makes 2 of 280-113

Q4DENJamal Murray goes to the line, makes 2 of 282-113

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores in the paint82-115

Q4DENNikola Jokić scores at the rim84-115

Q4OKCIsaiah Hartenstein scores in the paint (assist Brooks Barnhizer)84-117

Q4DENAaron Gordon scores at the rim (assist Nikola Jokić)86-117

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three86-117

Q4DENNikola Jokić goes to the line, makes 2 of 288-117

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses at the rim88-117

Q4DENDeMar DeRozan misses from midrange, offensive rebound88-117

Q4DENNikola Jokić misses in the paint88-117

Q4OKCJalen Williams misses in the paint88-117

Q4DENNikola Jokić scores three (assist Aaron Gordon)91-117

Q4OKCJalen Williams misses in the paint91-117

Q4DENJamal Murray misses in the paint, offensive rebound91-117

Q4DENTyus Jones misses three91-117

Q4OKCJalen Williams misses at the rim91-117

Q4DENRyan Nembhard scores from midrange93-117

Q4OKCJaylin Williams scores in the paint (assist Chet Holmgren)93-119

Q4DENAaron Gordon scores at the rim (assist Nikola Jokić)95-119

Q4OKCJalen Williams misses at the rim95-119

Q4DENChristian Braun misses corner three95-119

Q4OKCJalen Williams misses at the rim95-119

Q4DENNikola Jokić goes to the line, makes 2 of 297-119

Q4OKCAday Mara misses three, offensive rebound97-119

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores in the paint (assist Jared McCain)97-121

Q4DENZeke Nnaji scores at the rim (assist Aaron Gordon)99-121

Q4OKCKenrich Williams turns it over99-121

Q4DENCam Whitmore misses in the paint, offensive rebound99-121

Q4DENDeMar DeRozan scores from midrange (assist Nikola Jokić), and one102-121

Q4OKCJared McCain misses three102-121

Q4DENAaron Gordon misses three, offensive rebound102-121

Q4DENDeMar DeRozan turns it over102-121

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses in the paint102-121

Q4DENJamal Murray scores from midrange104-121

Q4OKCJalen Williams misses corner three104-121

Q4DENAaron Gordon goes to the line, makes 1 of 2105-121

Q4OKCAjay Mitchell turns it over105-121

Q4DENChristian Braun misses three105-121

Q4OKCJalen Williams scores three105-124

Q4DENRyan Nembhard scores three (assist Jamal Murray)108-124

Top 10 prop ideas

No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.

All player props

Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.

Player	Market	Line	Sim avg	Sim over	Lean
Nikola Jokić	assists	10.5	6.7	7%	under 93%
Aaron Gordon	pts+reb	20.5	14.4	12%	under 88%
Aaron Gordon	pts+ast	16.5	11.7	16%	under 84%
Aaron Gordon	points	14.5	10.0	17%	under 83%
Jamal Murray	assists	6.5	4.5	17%	under 83%
Christian Braun	threes	1.5	0.8	19%	under 81%
Nikola Jokić	pts+ast	36.5	31.0	21%	under 79%
Cameron Johnson	assists	2.5	1.7	23%	under 77%
Aaron Gordon	assists	2.5	1.7	25%	under 75%
Cameron Johnson	threes	2.5	1.7	26%	under 74%
Aaron Gordon	threes	1.5	1.0	26%	under 74%
Isaiah Hartenstein	rebounds	8.5	7.0	27%	under 73%
Cason Wallace	points	9.5	7.1	27%	under 73%
Cason Wallace	pts+reb	12.5	10.0	28%	under 72%
Isaiah Hartenstein	pts+reb	16.5	14.1	28%	under 72%
Aaron Gordon	rebounds	5.5	4.4	28%	under 72%
Cason Wallace	pts+ast	11.5	9.2	28%	under 72%
DeMar DeRozannew team	points	13.5	11.0	29%	under 71%
Isaiah Hartenstein	pts+ast	11.5	9.5	29%	under 71%
Christian Braun	pts+ast	12.5	10.2	30%	under 70%
Cason Wallace	threes	1.5	1.1	30%	under 70%
Nikola Jokić	pts+reb	39.5	35.7	30%	under 70%
Chet Holmgren	threes	0.5	1.2	70%	over 70%
Chet Holmgren	assists	1.5	1.1	30%	under 70%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	pts+reb	35.5	39.9	70%	over 70%
Christian Braun	points	10.5	8.6	31%	under 69%
Cameron Johnson	pts+ast	14.5	12.2	31%	under 69%
Cameron Johnson	pts+reb	16.5	14.1	31%	under 69%
Jamal Murray	pts+ast	29.5	26.4	32%	under 68%
DeMar DeRozannew team	pts+reb	15.5	13.4	32%	under 68%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	points	31.5	35.5	68%	over 68%
Isaiah Hartenstein	points	8.5	7.1	32%	under 68%
Jared McCainnew team	points	9.5	7.8	33%	under 67%
Cameron Johnson	points	12.5	10.6	33%	under 67%
Cason Wallace	rebounds	3.5	2.9	33%	under 67%
DeMar DeRozannew team	pts+ast	15.5	13.6	33%	under 67%
Nikola Jokić	rebounds	12.5	11.3	34%	under 66%
Christian Braun	pts+reb	14.5	12.9	35%	under 65%
Cason Wallace	assists	2.5	2.1	35%	under 65%
Jalen Williams	assists	4.5	3.9	35%	under 65%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	rebounds	3.5	4.5	65%	over 65%
Jalen Williams	threes	1.5	1.2	35%	under 65%
Nikola Jokić	points	26.5	24.3	36%	under 64%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	pts+ast	38.5	41.6	64%	over 64%
Ajay Mitchell	threes	0.5	1.0	63%	over 63%
Jared McCainnew team	threes	1.5	1.3	38%	under 62%
Christian Braun	rebounds	3.5	4.3	62%	over 62%
DeMar DeRozannew team	threes	0.5	0.5	38%	under 62%
Jalen Williams	pts+ast	23.5	22.2	40%	under 60%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	threes	1.5	2.0	59%	over 59%
Jamal Murray	rebounds	3.5	4.1	59%	over 59%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	assists	6.5	6.1	41%	under 59%
DeMar DeRozannew team	rebounds	2.5	2.4	42%	under 58%
Jalen Williams	rebounds	4.5	4.3	42%	under 58%
Jalen Williams	pts+reb	23.5	22.6	43%	under 57%
Isaiah Hartenstein	assists	2.5	2.4	43%	under 57%
Chet Holmgren	rebounds	7.5	8.1	56%	over 56%
Jamal Murray	points	22.5	21.9	45%	under 55%
Chet Holmgren	pts+reb	22.5	23.5	54%	over 54%
Jamal Murray	pts+reb	26.5	26.0	46%	under 54%
Chet Holmgren	pts+ast	15.5	16.6	54%	over 54%
Chet Holmgren	points	14.5	15.4	54%	over 54%
Jamal Murray	threes	2.5	2.8	53%	over 53%
Jalen Williams	points	18.5	18.3	47%	under 53%
DeMar DeRozannew team	assists	2.5	2.5	47%	under 53%
Nikola Jokić	threes	1.5	1.6	47%	under 53%
Cameron Johnson	rebounds	3.5	3.5	48%	under 52%
Ajay Mitchell	points	11.5	11.8	50%	under 50%
Christian Braun	assists	1.5	1.7	50%	over 50%