Portland @ Sacramento

Tip-off 7:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for POR

Sim

69%

Books

73%

ESPN model

77%

Median score

122-115

POR - SAC

POR -7.5

52%

sim cover rate

Total 232.5

60%

over · sim avg 238

Moneyline

+260

SAC · POR -325

NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details

How the sim saw it

The sim has Portland winning 68.5% of 5,000 games, against 73% from the books. The median score is Sacramento 115, Portland 122. In the most typical game: Portland leads by as many as 10 in the first half; Portland leads 61-59 at the break. Portland's 9-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing. Avdija puts Portland ahead for good with 0:37 left in the 3rd. Lillard finds Avdija 5 times. Hunter goes 5 of 8 off Sacramento's bench. Portland leads by 10 at its high point in the 4th. Sacramento gets within 3. LaVine scores last; final 122-114 Portland.

Sacramento wins 1,574 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 17+ threes (it wins 53%), wins the turnover battle (46%) or gets 23+ from Acuff (40%). The matchup to watch is Sacramento's ball security against Portland's hands. Portland covers -7.5 in 52% and the game goes over 232.5 in 60%.

Full breakdown

Last time they met (Apr 12), Portland won in Portland, 122-110.
Tonight Sacramento is without Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud.
Tonight Portland is without Shaedon Sharpe.
Sacramento went 22-60 last season (26th best record in the NBA).
Portland went 42-40 last season (18th best record in the NBA).
Portland won the season series 4-0.
Malik Monk missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Jrue Holiday missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Hansen Yang missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Sacramento: gone: DeMar DeRozan (now DEN), Russell Westbrook (off the league rosters), Dennis Schröder (now CHA); new: Darius Acuff Jr. (no NBA minutes last season), Leaky Black (from WAS), De'Andre Hunter (from CLE), Emanuel Sharp (no NBA minutes last season), Jonathan Mogbo (from TOR), Alex Karaban (no NBA minutes last season).
Portland: gone: Jerami Grant (now MEM), Kris Murray (now MEM); new: Ja Morant (from MEM), Vít Krejčí (from ATL), Micah Potter (from IND), John Tonje (from BOS).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
SAC: Acuff, Murray, LaVine, Sabonis, Monk
Bench: Plowden, Hunter, Black, Achiuwa, Clifford, Sharp (+2 under 8 min)
Out: Cardwell, Raynaud, Simmons
Maybe: Monk (90% to play, minutes scaled)
POR: Lillard, Avdija, Camara, Holiday, Morant
Bench: Clingan, Henderson, Krejčí, Cissoko, Potter, Williams (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Carlson, Sharpe, Youngblood
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +4.3 points vs their usual FG% against Zach LaVine and +3.1 against Deni Avdija.
The stoppers on threes: Toumani Camara held shooters 3.1 points under their usual 3P%, Jrue Holiday held shooters 1.8 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Damian Lillard sees LaVine on 14% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Sacramento's ball security vs Portland's hands.
Sacramento turned it over on 13.5% of possessions last season (15th fewest).
Portland forced turnovers on 14.5% (7th most), with 8.3 steals (18th) and 5.5 blocks (7th) a game.
Shot diets.
Sacramento: 33.9% of shots from three (30th), 25.6% at the rim (28th).
Portland: 46.9% of shots from three (3rd), 34.1% at the rim (4th).
Sacramento's defense: 3rd fewest rim attempts allowed, 29th lowest opponent three-point % (37.9%).
Portland's defense: 18th fewest rim attempts allowed, 15th lowest opponent three-point % (35.8%).
Portland's offense runs through Deni Avdija on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 6.9 a game last season, 17th most in the NBA.
0.88 points per play (top 41%), turnover on 20% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Portland's roll men scored 1.10 (17th in the league). Donovan Clingan alone: 1.08.
Sacramento faced 16.7 of those a game (21st most) and ranked 29th defending them. Against the roll man: 27th.
In the sim: 0.60 Avdija-to-Lillard baskets a game.
With 5+ Avdija assists, Portland wins 72.4%.
Sacramento's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, the pick-and-roll ball handler, transition, isolation. It ranked 28th, 30th, 24th, 18th in points per play on them.
Portland's defense ranked 16th, 25th, 9th, 17th against those same four.
Where Sacramento can hit back:
- Portland was 25th defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. Malik Monk ran 3.5 a game at 0.80 per play
- Portland was 17th defending isolation. Zach LaVine ran 1.5 a game at 0.84 per play
One check against real life:
Deni Avdija scored 28.5 points in his 4 games against Sacramento last season, 35 of them on Dec 18. In our 5,000 sims: 20.6.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Portland leads by as many as 10 in the first half; Portland leads 61-59 at the break
- Portland's 9-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing
- Avdija puts Portland ahead for good with 0:37 left in the 3rd
- Lillard finds Avdija 5 times
- Hunter goes 5 of 8 off Sacramento's bench
- Portland leads by 10 at its high point in the 4th. Sacramento gets within 3. LaVine scores last; final 122-114 Portland
How Sacramento wins (1,574 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.3 a game in its wins, 13.1 in its losses. At 17 or more, it wins 53%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 46%
- Acuff scores 23 or more: then it wins 40%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Portland wins 68.5%. The books (Draft Kings) have Portland at 73%, ESPN's model at 77%.
Median score: Sacramento 115, Portland 122
Portland covers -7.5 in 52%
Over 232.5 in 60%
Leans:
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.

Most typical game, play by play (POR score first)

Quarter 1

Q1SACNique Clifford misses three0-0

Q1PORToumani Camara turns it over0-0

Q1SACDomantas Sabonis scores at the rim0-2

Q1PORDamian Lillard goes to the line, makes 1 of 21-2

Q1SACDarius Acuff Jr. scores at the rim1-4

Q1PORDeni Avdija scores three (assist Vít Krejčí)4-4

Q1SACMalik Monk scores corner three (assist Keegan Murray)4-7

Q1PORSidy Cissoko misses three, offensive rebound4-7

Q1PORJrue Holiday misses corner three4-7

Q1SACZach LaVine misses at the rim4-7

Q1PORDamian Lillard scores from midrange6-7

Q1SACKeegan Murray scores three (assist Domantas Sabonis)6-10

Q1PORJrue Holiday misses three6-10

Q1SACDarius Acuff Jr. goes to the line, makes 1 of 26-11

Q1PORDamian Lillard misses three, offensive rebound6-11

Q1PORScoot Henderson scores at the rim8-11

Q1SACDarius Acuff Jr. misses three8-11

Q1PORDamian Lillard scores at the rim10-11

Q1SACNique Clifford misses three10-11

Q1PORJa Morant misses in the paint10-11

Q1SACKeegan Murray scores in the paint (assist Darius Acuff Jr.), and one10-14

Q1PORRobert Williams III goes to the line, makes 1 of 211-14

Q1SACDaeqwon Plowden scores at the rim11-16

Q1PORJrue Holiday goes to the line, makes 2 of 213-16

Q1SACKeegan Murray scores in the paint (assist Darius Acuff Jr.)13-18

Q1PORJayson Kent scores at the rim15-18

Q1SACNique Clifford turns it over15-18

Q1PORDamian Lillard scores three18-18

Q1SACDarius Acuff Jr. goes to the line, makes 1 of 218-19

Q1PORDamian Lillard scores at the rim20-19

Q1SACLeaky Black misses three20-19

Q1PORMicah Potter misses corner three20-19

Q1SACPrecious Achiuwa misses in the paint20-19

Q1PORDamian Lillard scores from midrange22-19

Q1SACMalik Monk scores three22-22

Q1PORDeni Avdija misses at the rim22-22

Q1SACZach LaVine misses from midrange22-22

Q1PORDamian Lillard misses three, offensive rebound22-22

Q1PORDamian Lillard misses in the paint22-22

Q1SACDomantas Sabonis misses at the rim, offensive rebound22-22

Q1SACDaeqwon Plowden scores at the rim (assist Darius Acuff Jr.)22-24

Q1PORDeni Avdija scores at the rim (assist Damian Lillard)24-24

Q1SACDarius Acuff Jr. scores at the rim (assist Nique Clifford)24-26

Q1PORVít Krejčí misses in the paint, offensive rebound24-26

Q1PORJa Morant scores three (assist Sidy Cissoko)27-26

Q1SACMalik Monk misses three, offensive rebound27-26

Q1SACDomantas Sabonis scores at the rim (assist Daeqwon Plowden)27-28

Q1PORJrue Holiday misses three, offensive rebound27-28

Q1PORDamian Lillard scores at the rim29-28

Q1SACDarius Acuff Jr. scores at the rim29-30

Q1PORJrue Holiday scores three (assist Toumani Camara)32-30

Q1SACDe'Andre Hunter scores in the paint (assist Malik Monk)32-32

Q1PORJa Morant misses at the rim32-32

Q1SACLeaky Black misses three32-32

Q1PORDonovan Clingan misses three32-32

Q1SACDomantas Sabonis scores at the rim (assist Darius Acuff Jr.)32-34

Q1PORSidy Cissoko turns it over32-34

Quarter 2

Q2SACLeaky Black scores three (assist Malik Monk)32-37

Q2PORDeni Avdija scores three (assist Damian Lillard)35-37

Q2SACEmanuel Sharp misses in the paint35-37

Q2PORJa Morant misses at the rim35-37

Q2SACZach LaVine misses three35-37

Q2PORDamian Lillard scores from midrange37-37

Q2SACMalik Monk misses in the paint37-37

Q2PORMicah Potter misses corner three37-37

Q2SACDe'Andre Hunter scores in the paint (assist Darius Acuff Jr.)37-39

Q2PORJa Morant scores at the rim39-39

Q2SACDe'Andre Hunter goes to the line, makes 1 of 239-40

Q2PORToumani Camara misses corner three39-40

Q2SACDe'Andre Hunter misses in the paint39-40

Q2PORDamian Lillard misses three, offensive rebound39-40

Q2PORDamian Lillard misses at the rim39-40

Q2SACZach LaVine turns it over39-40

Q2PORDeni Avdija scores three (assist Jrue Holiday)42-40

Q2SACDe'Andre Hunter misses three42-40

Q2PORJrue Holiday turns it over42-40

Q2SACDomantas Sabonis turns it over42-40

Q2PORJrue Holiday misses three42-40

Q2SACMalik Monk turns it over42-40

Q2PORVít Krejčí turns it over42-40

Q2SACDarius Acuff Jr. misses in the paint42-40

Q2PORDeni Avdija scores three45-40

Q2SACKeegan Murray scores three (assist Domantas Sabonis)45-43

Q2PORDonovan Clingan misses three45-43

Q2SACDaeqwon Plowden misses corner three, offensive rebound45-43

Q2SACDaeqwon Plowden misses three45-43

Q2PORDamian Lillard misses at the rim, offensive rebound45-43

Q2PORToumani Camara scores three48-43

Q2SACDarius Acuff Jr. turns it over48-43

Q2PORSidy Cissoko scores three (assist Deni Avdija)51-43

Q2SACDarius Acuff Jr. turns it over51-43

Q2PORDamian Lillard misses three51-43

Q2SACDarius Acuff Jr. goes to the line, makes 1 of 251-44

Q2PORDamian Lillard scores three54-44

Q2SACDe'Andre Hunter scores three (assist Nique Clifford)54-47

Q2PORJrue Holiday misses three54-47

Q2SACKeegan Murray misses in the paint54-47

Q2PORJa Morant turns it over54-47

Q2SACZach LaVine scores corner three (assist Leaky Black)54-50

Q2PORDonovan Clingan turns it over54-50

Q2SACDomantas Sabonis scores at the rim (assist Malik Monk)54-52

Q2PORDamian Lillard scores at the rim (assist Donovan Clingan)56-52

Q2SACDe'Andre Hunter scores in the paint (assist Leaky Black)56-54

Q2PORToumani Camara misses three56-54

Q2SACDe'Andre Hunter misses at the rim, offensive rebound56-54

Q2SACPrecious Achiuwa scores at the rim (assist Domantas Sabonis)56-56

Q2PORVít Krejčí misses three, offensive rebound56-56

Q2PORJrue Holiday turns it over56-56

Q2SACPrecious Achiuwa misses in the paint, offensive rebound56-56

Q2SACMalik Monk misses in the paint, offensive rebound56-56

Q2SACZach LaVine misses three, offensive rebound56-56

Q2SACZach LaVine scores three (assist Malik Monk)56-59

Q2PORDamian Lillard scores at the rim (assist Jrue Holiday)58-59

Q2SACDomantas Sabonis misses in the paint58-59

Q2PORDamian Lillard scores from midrange, and one61-59

Quarter 3

Q3SACKeegan Murray scores three (assist De'Andre Hunter)61-62

Q3PORDeni Avdija turns it over61-62

Q3SACDarius Acuff Jr. turns it over61-62

Q3PORJa Morant misses from midrange61-62

Q3SACDarius Acuff Jr. scores at the rim (assist Zach LaVine)61-64

Q3PORDeni Avdija goes to the line, makes 2 of 263-64

Q3SACZach LaVine misses three63-64

Q3PORJa Morant scores three (assist Deni Avdija)66-64

Q3SACLeaky Black scores corner three (assist Darius Acuff Jr.)66-67

Q3PORDeni Avdija scores at the rim (assist Damian Lillard)68-67

Q3SACEmanuel Sharp misses at the rim68-67

Q3PORToumani Camara misses in the paint68-67

Q3SACDarius Acuff Jr. scores at the rim (assist Daeqwon Plowden)68-69

Q3PORJa Morant misses three68-69

Q3SACZach LaVine scores three68-72

Q3PORScoot Henderson scores in the paint70-72

Q3SACDe'Andre Hunter goes to the line, makes 1 of 270-73

Q3SACPrecious Achiuwa scores at the rim (assist Darius Acuff Jr.)70-75

Q3PORDamian Lillard misses in the paint70-75

Q3SACZach LaVine scores at the rim70-77

Q3PORDonovan Clingan misses at the rim, offensive rebound70-77

Q3PORJa Morant scores at the rim72-77

Q3SACDarius Acuff Jr. misses at the rim, offensive rebound72-77

Q3SACDarius Acuff Jr. scores at the rim (assist Domantas Sabonis)72-79

Q3PORDeni Avdija misses three72-79

Q3SACDomantas Sabonis misses at the rim72-79

Q3PORDeni Avdija misses at the rim72-79

Q3SACEmanuel Sharp scores corner three (assist Leaky Black)72-82

Q3PORToumani Camara scores three (assist Deni Avdija)75-82

Q3SACKeegan Murray misses three75-82

Q3PORJa Morant misses in the paint75-82

Q3SACEmanuel Sharp scores in the paint (assist Precious Achiuwa)75-84

Q3PORDamian Lillard misses at the rim, offensive rebound75-84

Q3PORDeni Avdija scores at the rim77-84

Q3SACKeegan Murray misses three77-84

Q3PORDeni Avdija scores three (assist Donovan Clingan)80-84

Q3SACNique Clifford scores at the rim80-86

Q3PORVít Krejčí misses three, offensive rebound80-86

Q3PORScoot Henderson misses three, offensive rebound80-86

Q3PORVít Krejčí misses corner three, offensive rebound80-86

Q3PORJa Morant goes to the line, makes 2 of 282-86

Q3SACPrecious Achiuwa turns it over82-86

Q3PORDamian Lillard goes to the line, makes 2 of 284-86

Q3SACKeegan Murray misses corner three84-86

Q3PORHansen Yang turns it over84-86

Q3SACDarius Acuff Jr. misses three, offensive rebound84-86

Q3SACDomantas Sabonis scores at the rim (assist Emanuel Sharp)84-88

Q3PORVít Krejčí misses three, offensive rebound84-88

Q3PORDeni Avdija misses three84-88

Q3SACDarius Acuff Jr. goes to the line, makes 2 of 284-90

Q3PORMicah Potter scores three (assist Jrue Holiday)87-90

Q3SACNique Clifford turns it over87-90

Q3PORVít Krejčí scores three (assist Toumani Camara)90-90

Q3SACDomantas Sabonis scores at the rim (assist Nique Clifford)90-92

Q3PORDeni Avdija turns it over90-92

Q3SACMalik Monk misses three90-92

Q3PORDeni Avdija scores three (assist Damian Lillard)93-92

Q3SACZach LaVine misses from midrange93-92

Q3PORJa Morant scores three (assist Scoot Henderson)96-92

Quarter 4

Q4SACDarius Acuff Jr. misses three96-92

Q4PORToumani Camara misses at the rim96-92

Q4SACDomantas Sabonis misses three96-92

Q4PORScoot Henderson scores three99-92

Q4SACDarius Acuff Jr. scores at the rim (assist Malik Monk)99-94

Q4PORJa Morant misses in the paint, offensive rebound99-94

Q4PORDeni Avdija misses in the paint99-94

Q4SACNique Clifford misses corner three99-94

Q4PORDamian Lillard turns it over99-94

Q4SACNique Clifford scores at the rim (assist De'Andre Hunter)99-96

Q4PORScoot Henderson scores three (assist Damian Lillard)102-96

Q4SACPrecious Achiuwa turns it over102-96

Q4PORJa Morant scores at the rim104-96

Q4SACZach LaVine goes to the line, makes 2 of 2104-98

Q4PORDamian Lillard goes to the line, makes 2 of 2106-98

Q4SACZach LaVine misses corner three, offensive rebound106-98

Q4SACDaeqwon Plowden scores at the rim106-100

Q4PORRobert Williams III turns it over106-100

Q4SACEmanuel Sharp scores at the rim106-102

Q4PORMicah Potter scores corner three (assist Jrue Holiday)109-102

Q4SACDe'Andre Hunter turns it over109-102

Q4PORDeni Avdija misses three109-102

Q4SACDe'Andre Hunter scores in the paint109-104

Q4PORDamian Lillard turns it over109-104

Q4SACDomantas Sabonis turns it over109-104

Q4PORDamian Lillard turns it over109-104

Q4SACMalik Monk misses at the rim, offensive rebound109-104

Q4SACEmanuel Sharp scores at the rim (assist Zach LaVine)109-106

Q4PORDamian Lillard scores at the rim111-106

Q4SACZach LaVine misses in the paint111-106

Q4PORDamian Lillard scores three114-106

Q4SACNique Clifford scores at the rim114-108

Q4PORDamian Lillard scores three117-108

Q4SACMalik Monk misses corner three117-108

Q4PORJa Morant goes to the line, makes 1 of 2118-108

Q4SACDomantas Sabonis scores at the rim (assist Darius Acuff Jr.), and one118-111

Q4PORDamian Lillard misses three118-111

Q4SACKeegan Murray misses corner three118-111

Q4PORJa Morant misses three118-111

Q4SACNique Clifford misses in the paint118-111

Q4PORJa Morant turns it over118-111

Q4SACZach LaVine misses three118-111

Q4PORMicah Potter scores at the rim (assist Ja Morant)120-111

Q4SACPrecious Achiuwa scores at the rim120-113

Q4PORDeni Avdija scores at the rim (assist Damian Lillard)122-113

Q4SACDomantas Sabonis misses at the rim122-113

Q4PORScoot Henderson misses three122-113

Q4SACZach LaVine goes to the line, makes 1 of 2122-114

Q4PORDonovan Clingan turns it over122-114

Top 10 prop ideas

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