CIN @ BAL
Kickoff 10:00 AM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for BAL
Big disagreement with the books. Usually that means the sim is missing something (a quarterback change, line injuries, news). Check before trusting it.
NFL backtest: the books beat this sim on every period. Read it as context, not a bet. Details
Out: Jaylinn Hawkins, Tavius Robinson, T.J. Tampa, Tanner Hudson, Swayze Bozeman
How the sim saw it
The sim has the Ravens winning 69.0% of 5,000 games, against 48% from the books. The median score is Ravens 28, Bengals 21. In the most typical game: At the half: Ravens 21, Bengals 7. Biggest leads: Ravens by 14, Bengals by 0. Q1: Tyler Huntley to Justice Hill, 33 yards for the longest score of the day. Turnovers: Bengals 1. 0 lead changes. Final: Ravens 28-21.
The Bengals win 1,537 of the 5,000. Their chances rise when Joe Burrow throws for 314+ (they win 52%), with no interceptions (36%) or when they run for 112+ (62%). The Bengals cover -1.5 in 29% and the game goes over 47.5 in 54%. Typical lines: Tyler Huntley: 212 passing yards, 24 rushing yards; Joe Burrow: 254 passing yards; Zay Flowers: 5.7 catches for 74 yards; Ja'Marr Chase: 6.9 catches for 72 yards.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Bengals won 35-13 in Baltimore.
The Ravens are 4-3 this season.
The Bengals are 4-2 this season.
Out tonight, starters only: Jaylinn Hawkins, Tavius Robinson.
Who's in the sim:
BAL: QB Tyler Huntley
Targets: Flowers 30%, Andrews 20%, Bateman 15%, Hill 13%
Carries: Henry 25, Hill 4
CIN: QB Joe Burrow
Targets: Chase 28%, Higgins 21%, Brown 14%, Gesicki 12%
Carries: Brown 14, Perine 5
Flagged: Nick Vannett (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)
Who gets hunted: Tyler Huntley.
The Ravens line has given up a sack on 7.6% of dropbacks (9th most). The Bengals get home on 9.0% (2nd most).
Down the field, the Ravens allow 50.0% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (3rd most in the league).
The matchup: how each team moves the ball.
The Ravens: run-leaning on early downs (23rd in pass rate over expected), 7.3 yards per dropback (4th), 4.5 per carry (7th). The Bengals defense: 20th against the pass, 22nd against the run.
The Bengals: pass-leaning on early downs (1st in pass rate over expected), 6.9 yards per dropback (8th), 3.6 per carry (25th). The Ravens defense: 15th against the pass, 7th against the run.
The Ravens engine: play-action. 18.5% of their throws (16th most), 10.5 yards per attempt (4th).
The Bengals rank 22nd defending play-action (8.8 yards per attempt allowed).
Zay Flowers in one split:
Straight dropbacks: 11.4 yards per target on 47 targets (top 5% of receivers).
The Bengals rank 22nd against straight dropbacks.
Where the Bengals hit back:
- The Ravens are 3rd worst defending deep shots (50.0% completed). Tee Higgins sees the most of those targets.
- The Ravens are 26th worst defending the run (3.6 yards per carry). Chase Brown gets the carries.
One check against real life:
Tyler Huntley threw for 298 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 215.
Zay Flowers caught 8 for 137. The sims: 5.7 for 79.
Joe Burrow threw for 292 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 258.
Ja'Marr Chase caught 5 for 62. The sims: 6.9 for 77.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- At the half: Ravens 21, Bengals 7
- Biggest leads: Ravens by 14, Bengals by 0
- Q1: Tyler Huntley to Justice Hill, 33 yards for the longest score of the day
- Turnovers: Bengals 1
- 0 lead changes. Final: Ravens 28-21
How the Bengals win (1,537 of the 5,000):
- Joe Burrow throws for 314+: then they win 52%
- No interceptions: 36%, vs 23% with one or more
- 112+ rushing yards: 62%
Across all 5,000 sims:
The Ravens win 69.0%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 48%.
Median score: Ravens 28, Bengals 21
The Bengals cover -1.5 in 29%
Over 47.5 in 54%
Typical lines:
- Tyler Huntley: 212 passing yards, 24 rushing yards
- Joe Burrow: 254 passing yards
- Zay Flowers: 5.7 catches for 74 yards
- Ja'Marr Chase: 6.9 catches for 72 yards
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Player projections
Median, with the 10th-90th percentile range.
| Player | Team | Role | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | QB | pass yds 212 (141-294.1) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 24 (7-50) |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RUSH/REC | rush yds 127 (71-195) · rec yds 9 (0-33) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RUSH/REC | rush yds 19 (4-43) · rec yds 17 (2-46) · catches 2 (1-5) |
| Rasheen Ali | BAL | RUSH/REC | rush yds 1 (0-11) · rec yds 0 (0-20) · catches 0 (0-2) |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | RUSH/REC | rush yds 1 (0-12) · rec yds 74 (30-134) · catches 6 (3-9) |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | REC | rec yds 33 (9-70) · catches 4 (1-6) |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | REC | rec yds 29 (3-71) · catches 2 (1-5) |
| Devontez Walker | BAL | REC | rec yds 4 (0-35) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Nick Vannett | BAL | REC | rec yds 3 (0-23) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | BAL | REC | rec yds 0 (0-18) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | pass yds 254 (174-344.1) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 8 (0-27) |
| Chase Brown | CIN | RUSH/REC | rush yds 44 (15-87) · rec yds 24 (7-52) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Samaje Perine | CIN | RUSH/REC | rush yds 14 (2-38) · rec yds 10 (0-34) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Tahj Brooks | CIN | RUSH | rush yds 0 (-1-9) |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-2) · rec yds 72 (32-128) · catches 7 (4-10) |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | REC | rec yds 58 (19-113) · catches 5 (2-8) |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN | REC | rec yds 28 (5-66) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| Drew Sample | CIN | REC | rec yds 9 (0-30) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Mitchell Tinsley | CIN | REC | rec yds 5 (0-31) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Erick All | CIN | REC | rec yds 7 (0-28) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Dohnte Meyers | CIN | REC | rec yds 4 (0-25.1) · catches 1 (0-2) |