Minnesota @ Miami
Tip-off 4:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for MIA
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Miami winning 50.7% of 5,000 games, against 53% from the books. The median score is Miami 122, Minnesota 121. In the most typical game: Miami leads by as many as 14 in the first half; tied 60-60 at the break. Minnesota's 17-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. Mitchell puts Miami ahead for good with 1:24 left in the 4th. Mitchell finds Adebayo 3 times. Hyland finds McDaniels 4 times. Ball goes 7 of 19 off Minnesota's bench. Miami leads by 3 at its high point in the 4th. Minnesota pulls even late. Hyland scores last; final 122-121 Miami.
Minnesota wins 2,467 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 17+ threes (it wins 70%), wins the turnover battle (61%) or gets 35+ from Edwards (63%). The matchup to watch is Miami's ball security against Minnesota's hands. Miami covers -1.5 in 48% and the game goes over 240.5 in 55%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Jan 6), Minnesota won in Minnesota, 122-94.
Tonight Minnesota is without Donte DiVincenzo.
Miami went 43-39 last season (17th best record in the NBA).
Minnesota went 49-33 last season (10th best record in the NBA).
Minnesota won the season series 2-0.
Terrence Shannon Jr. missed 2 of the 2 meetings.
Miami: gone: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (now MIL), Norman Powell (now CHI), Kel'el Ware (now MIL); new: Giannis Antetokounmpo (from MIL), Bobby Portis (from MIL), Tim Hardaway Jr. (from DEN), Nick Richards (from CHI), Klay Thompson (from DAL).
Minnesota: gone: Julius Randle (now BKN), Naz Reid (now CHA), Mike Conley (now BOS); new: Cody Williams (from UTA), LaMelo Ball (from CHA), Ayo Dosunmu (from CHI), Trey Lyles (no NBA minutes last season), Jonathan Kuminga (from GSW).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
MIA: Adebayo, Mitchell, Larsson, Wiggins, Antetokounmpo
Bench: Portis, Hardaway, Fontecchio, Richards, Thompson, Smith
MIN: Edwards, McDaniels, Gobert, Dosunmu, Williams
Bench: Ball, Shannon, Lyles, Kuminga, Hyland, Clark
Out: DiVincenzo
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +3.7 points vs their usual FG% against LaMelo Ball and +2.5 against Cody Williams.
The stoppers on threes: Ayo Dosunmu held shooters 5.6 points under their usual 3P%, Davion Mitchell held shooters 1.4 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Davion Mitchell sees Ball on 44% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Miami's ball security vs Minnesota's hands.
Miami turned it over on 12.4% of possessions last season (5th fewest).
Minnesota forced turnovers on 13.8% (14th most), with 8.7 steals (12th) and 5.8 blocks (2nd) a game.
Shot diets.
Miami: 40.6% of shots from three (18th), 31.0% at the rim (12th).
Minnesota: 42.0% of shots from three (16th), 31.3% at the rim (10th).
Miami's defense: 12th fewest rim attempts allowed, 17th lowest opponent three-point % (35.9%).
Minnesota's defense: 25th fewest rim attempts allowed, 13th lowest opponent three-point % (35.5%).
Miami's offense runs through Giannis Antetokounmpo on post-ups: 4.6 a game last season, 4th most in the NBA.
1.11 points per play (top 27%), turnover on 17% of them.
Minnesota faced 2.6 of those a game (30th most) and ranked 30th defending them.
In the sim: 0.89 Antetokounmpo-to-Adebayo baskets a game.
With 5+ Antetokounmpo assists, Miami wins 56.2%.
Minnesota's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation. It ranked 3rd, 8th, 12th, 6th in points per play on them.
Miami's defense ranked 7th, 17th, 23rd, 13th against those same four.
Anthony Edwards in one split:
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 1.00 points per play (top 15%), 6.1 a game.
Isolation: 1.04 points per play (top 19%), 6.2 a game.
Miami's defense: 13th against isolation, 23rd against the pick-and-roll ball handler.
Where Minnesota can hit back:
- Miami was 26th defending off-screen shots. Anthony Edwards ran 1.2 a game at 1.10 per play
- Miami was 25th defending putbacks. Rudy Gobert ran 2.7 a game at 1.21 per play
One check against real life:
Anthony Edwards scored 29.5 points in his 2 games against Miami last season, 33 of them on Jan 3. In our 5,000 sims: 28.4.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Miami leads by as many as 14 in the first half; tied 60-60 at the break
- Minnesota's 17-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- Mitchell puts Miami ahead for good with 1:24 left in the 4th
- Mitchell finds Adebayo 3 times
- Hyland finds McDaniels 4 times
- Ball goes 7 of 19 off Minnesota's bench
- Miami leads by 3 at its high point in the 4th. Minnesota pulls even late. Hyland scores last; final 122-121 Miami
How Minnesota wins (2,467 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.6 a game in its wins, 13.4 in its losses. At 17 or more, it wins 70%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 61%
- Edwards scores 35 or more: then it wins 63%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Miami wins 50.7%. The books (Draft Kings) have Miami at 53%, ESPN's model at 52%.
Median score: Miami 122, Minnesota 121
Miami covers -1.5 in 48%
Over 240.5 in 55%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Giannis Antetokounmpo pts+reb line 39.5, sim 26.2; Giannis Antetokounmpo pts+ast line 35.5, sim 23.7; Giannis Antetokounmpo rebounds line 11.5, sim 6.7
- Davion Mitchell over 5.5 assists (79%, sim avg 7.7)
- Bam Adebayo over 16.5 points (79%, sim avg 21.9)
- Andrew Wiggins over 1.5 assists (76%, sim avg 2.7)
- Davion Mitchell over 0.5 threes (76%, sim avg 1.4)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (MIN score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | pts+reb | 39.5 | 26.2 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | pts+ast | 35.5 | 23.7 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | rebounds | 11.5 | 6.7 | 4% | under 96% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | assists | 7.5 | 4.2 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | points | 28.5 | 19.5 | 7% | under 93% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | pts+reb | 17.5 | 11.9 | 12% | under 88% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | rebounds | 5.5 | 3.4 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | points | 12.5 | 8.6 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Klay Thompsonnew team | pts+reb | 13.5 | 9.1 | 18% | under 82% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | pts+ast | 27.5 | 21.6 | 18% | under 82% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | assists | 7.5 | 5.4 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Klay Thompsonnew team | points | 11.5 | 7.6 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Klay Thompsonnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.5 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Davion Mitchell | assists | 5.5 | 7.7 | 79% | over 79% | |
| Bam Adebayo | points | 16.5 | 21.9 | 79% | over 79% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | pts+reb | 24.5 | 19.8 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | assists | 1.5 | 2.7 | 76% | over 76% | |
| Davion Mitchell | threes | 0.5 | 1.4 | 76% | over 76% | |
| Bam Adebayo | pts+ast | 20.5 | 25.5 | 76% | over 76% | |
| Pelle Larsson | assists | 2.5 | 4.0 | 76% | over 76% | |
| Pelle Larsson | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.9 | 75% | over 75% | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.new team | pts+reb | 11.5 | 8.7 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.9 | 75% | over 75% | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.new team | points | 9.5 | 6.9 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Klay Thompsonnew team | threes | 2.5 | 1.7 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.new team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.8 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Bam Adebayo | pts+reb | 26.5 | 31.4 | 73% | over 73% | |
| Davion Mitchell | pts+ast | 14.5 | 18.0 | 73% | over 73% | |
| Rudy Gobert | pts+reb | 21.5 | 18.7 | 28% | under 72% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | points | 19.5 | 16.2 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | pts+ast | 15.5 | 19.4 | 72% | over 72% | |
| Bam Adebayo | assists | 2.5 | 3.7 | 71% | over 71% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.6 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | pts+reb | 17.5 | 21.3 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Pelle Larsson | pts+ast | 13.5 | 16.6 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Pelle Larsson | pts+reb | 13.5 | 16.5 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Bobby Portis Jr. | pts+reb | 16.5 | 14.2 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Bobby Portis Jr. | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | points | 13.5 | 16.6 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | pts+reb | 21.5 | 19.1 | 33% | under 67% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | threes | 3.5 | 2.9 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Pelle Larsson | threes | 0.5 | 1.1 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Rudy Gobert | rebounds | 11.5 | 10.4 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | pts+ast | 18.5 | 16.5 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | pts+ast | 15.5 | 18.1 | 65% | over 65% | |
| Rudy Gobert | points | 9.5 | 8.3 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Pelle Larsson | points | 10.5 | 12.6 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Bobby Portis Jr. | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.9 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | pts+reb | 15.5 | 18.0 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | threes | 1.5 | 2.1 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Bobby Portis Jr. | points | 10.5 | 9.4 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Davion Mitchell | points | 8.5 | 10.4 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Davion Mitchell | pts+reb | 11.5 | 13.4 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | points | 15.5 | 14.1 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.new team | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Davion Mitchell | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.0 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | points | 12.5 | 14.1 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | assists | 2.5 | 2.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | assists | 3.5 | 4.0 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.0 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Anthony Edwards | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.3 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Anthony Edwards | pts+reb | 32.5 | 33.8 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | threes | 0.5 | 0.6 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Anthony Edwards | points | 27.5 | 28.4 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Bam Adebayo | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Anthony Edwards | threes | 3.5 | 3.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Anthony Edwards | pts+ast | 31.5 | 32.1 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Bam Adebayo | rebounds | 9.5 | 9.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Anthony Edwards | assists | 3.5 | 3.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 50% | under 50% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.7 | 50% | under 50% |