Golden State @ Phoenix
Tip-off 7:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for PHX
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Phoenix winning 55.8% of 5,000 games, against 76% from the books. The median score is Phoenix 114, Golden State 112. In the most typical game: Phoenix leads by as many as 7 in the first half; Phoenix leads 56-53 at the break. Golden State's 8-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. J. Green puts Phoenix ahead for good with 5:26 left in the 4th. D. Green finds Curry 4 times. Payton goes 5 of 8 off Golden State's bench. Phoenix leads by 7 at its high point in the 4th. Golden State pulls even late. Curry scores last; final 115-112 Phoenix.
Golden State wins 2,210 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 19+ threes (it wins 69%), wins the turnover battle (60%) or gets 33+ from Curry (59%). The matchup to watch is Phoenix's ball security against Golden State's hands. Phoenix covers -9.5 in 33% and the game goes over 221.5 in 59%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Feb 5), Golden State won in Phoenix, 101-97.
Tonight Phoenix is without Mark Williams.
Tonight Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski and Kristaps Porziņģis.
Phoenix went 45-37 last season (13th best record in the NBA).
Golden State went 37-45 last season (20th best record in the NBA).
Golden State won the season series 3-1.
Rasheer Fleming missed 4 of the 4 meetings.
Khaman Maluach missed 4 of the 4 meetings.
Al Horford missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Will Richard missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Phoenix: gone: Royce O'Neale (now CHA), Grayson Allen (now CHA); new: Miles Bridges (from CHA), Luke Kennard (from ATL), Pat Spencer (from GSW), Drew Timme (from LAL), Duop Reath (from POR).
Golden State: gone: Pat Spencer (now PHX); new: Yaxel Lendeborg (no NBA minutes last season), Georges Niang (from UTA), Brandon Williams (from DAL), Graham Ike (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
PHX: Booker, Bridges, Brooks, Gillespie, J. Green
Bench: Goodwin, Dunn, Spencer, Kennard, Bouyea (+5 under 8 min)
Out: M. Williams
Maybe: Kennard (50% to play, minutes scaled), Ighodaro (20% to play, minutes scaled)
GSW: Lendeborg, Curry, D. Green, Melton, Santos
Bench: Horford, Niang, B. Williams, Richard, Cryer, Payton, Ike (+1 under 8 min)
Out: Bassey, Butler, Moody, Podziemski, Porziņģis
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +5.8 points vs their usual FG% against De'Anthony Melton and +1.9 against Collin Gillespie.
The stoppers on threes: Collin Gillespie held shooters 3.1 points under their usual 3P%, Draymond Green held shooters 1.9 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Collin Gillespie sees Melton on 19% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Phoenix's ball security vs Golden State's hands.
Phoenix turned it over on 13.6% of possessions last season (16th fewest).
Golden State forced turnovers on 15.0% (4th most), with 9.7 steals (2nd) and 4.2 blocks (26th) a game.
Shot diets.
Phoenix: 45.3% of shots from three (7th), 25.0% at the rim (29th).
Golden State: 49.7% of shots from three (1st), 27.8% at the rim (25th).
Phoenix's defense: 16th fewest rim attempts allowed, 2nd lowest opponent three-point % (34.7%).
Golden State's defense: 10th fewest rim attempts allowed, 19th lowest opponent three-point % (36.0%).
Phoenix's offense runs through Devin Booker on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 8.1 a game last season, 7th most in the NBA.
0.93 points per play (top 31%), turnover on 14% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Phoenix's roll men scored 1.08 (20th in the league). Oso Ighodaro alone: 1.11.
Golden State faced 15.5 of those a game (26th most) and ranked 15th defending them. Against the roll man: 7th.
In the sim: 1.14 Booker-to-Bridges baskets a game.
With 7+ Booker assists, Phoenix wins 62.6%.
Golden State's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 14th, 27th, 18th, 4th in points per play on them.
Phoenix's defense ranked 9th, 5th, 11th, 20th against those same four.
Stephen Curry in one split:
Cuts: 1.51 points per play (top 13%), 1.6 a game.
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.97 points per play (top 21%), 4.9 a game.
Phoenix's defense: 11th against the pick-and-roll ball handler, 20th against cuts.
Where Golden State can hit back:
- Phoenix was 29th defending putbacks. Gary Payton II ran 0.7 a game at 1.19 per play
- Phoenix was 24th defending the roll man. Draymond Green ran 1.2 a game at 0.97 per play
One check against real life:
Devin Booker scored 33.7 points in his 3 games against Golden State last season, 38 of them on Dec 20. In our 5,000 sims: 25.5.
Stephen Curry scored 23.7 points in his 3 games against Phoenix last season, 28 of them on Dec 20. In our 5,000 sims: 26.8.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Phoenix leads by as many as 7 in the first half; Phoenix leads 56-53 at the break
- Golden State's 8-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- J. Green puts Phoenix ahead for good with 5:26 left in the 4th
- D. Green finds Curry 4 times
- Payton goes 5 of 8 off Golden State's bench
- Phoenix leads by 7 at its high point in the 4th. Golden State pulls even late. Curry scores last; final 115-112 Phoenix
How Golden State wins (2,210 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 17.2 a game in its wins, 14.8 in its losses. At 19 or more, it wins 69%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 60%
- Curry scores 33 or more: then it wins 59%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Phoenix wins 55.8%. The books (Draft Kings) have Phoenix at 76%, ESPN's model at 68%.
Median score: Phoenix 114, Golden State 112
Phoenix covers -9.5 in 33%
Over 221.5 in 59%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Miles Bridges rebounds line 5.5, sim 6.7; Miles Bridges pts+reb line 21.5, sim 23.4; Yaxel Lendeborg pts+ast line 21.5, sim 20.4
Caution: tonight the sim sits 0.8 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Khaman Maluach under 18.5 pts+reb (100%, sim avg 3.6)
- Khaman Maluach under 8.5 rebounds (100%, sim avg 1.8)
- Khaman Maluach under 9.5 points (100%, sim avg 1.7)
- Jalen Green under 23.5 pts+ast (77%, sim avg 19.2)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (GSW score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sat Oct 24, 9:17 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khaman Maluach | under 18.5 pts+reb | 100% | -116 | 18 ✓ |
| Khaman Maluach | under 8.5 rebounds | 100% | -127 | 9 ✗ |
| Khaman Maluach | under 9.5 points | 100% | -113 | 9 ✓ |
| Jalen Green | under 23.5 pts+ast | 77% | -116 | 13 ✓ |
| Jalen Green | under 3.5 assists | 75% | -146 | 1 ✓ |
| Jalen Green | under 19.5 points | 70% | -113 | 12 ✓ |
| Jalen Green | under 23.5 pts+reb | 69% | -122 | 14 ✓ |
| Devin Booker | over 3.5 rebounds | 65% | -159 | 7 ✓ |
| Dillon Brooks | over 1.5 threes | 64% | -173 | 1 ✗ |
| Devin Booker | over 1.5 threes | 63% | -128 | 2 ✓ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khaman Maluach | pts+reb | 18.5 | 3.6 | 0% | under 100% | |
| Khaman Maluach | rebounds | 8.5 | 1.8 | 0% | under 100% | |
| Khaman Maluach | points | 9.5 | 1.7 | 0% | under 100% | |
| Jalen Green | pts+ast | 23.5 | 19.2 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Jalen Green | assists | 3.5 | 2.6 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Jalen Green | points | 19.5 | 16.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Jalen Green | pts+reb | 23.5 | 20.6 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Miles Bridgesnew team | rebounds | 5.5 | 6.7 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Devin Booker | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.4 | 65% | over 65% | |
| Dillon Brooks | threes | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Devin Booker | threes | 1.5 | 2.2 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Collin Gillespie | threes | 2.5 | 2.2 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Jalen Green | threes | 2.5 | 2.2 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Jalen Green | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.0 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Devin Booker | pts+reb | 27.5 | 29.9 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Miles Bridgesnew team | pts+reb | 21.5 | 23.4 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | pts+ast | 21.5 | 20.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | points | 17.5 | 16.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Devin Booker | points | 23.5 | 25.5 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Dillon Brooks | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.1 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Collin Gillespie | points | 10.5 | 9.8 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Miles Bridgesnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.9 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | assists | 3.5 | 3.9 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Devin Booker | pts+ast | 29.5 | 30.9 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Miles Bridgesnew team | points | 15.5 | 16.7 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Dillon Brooks | pts+reb | 19.5 | 20.5 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Devin Booker | assists | 5.5 | 5.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Miles Bridgesnew team | pts+ast | 18.5 | 19.4 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | pts+reb | 24.5 | 24.1 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Dillon Brooks | points | 16.5 | 16.4 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Collin Gillespie | pts+ast | 13.5 | 13.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Collin Gillespie | assists | 3.5 | 3.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Miles Bridgesnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | rebounds | 7.5 | 7.6 | 50% | under 50% |