LA @ Oklahoma City
Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for OKC
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Oklahoma City winning 84.5% of 5,000 games, against 89% from the books. The median score is Oklahoma City 117, LA 103. In the most typical game: Oklahoma City leads by as many as 16 in the first half; Oklahoma City leads 56-40 at the break. Oklahoma City's 8-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Mitchell puts Oklahoma City ahead for good with 2:41 left in the 1st. J. Williams finds J. Williams 3 times. Garland finds Lopez 4 times. Lopez goes 5 of 13 off LA's bench. Oklahoma City leads by 18 at its high point in the 4th. LA gets within 13. Garland scores last; final 118-103 Oklahoma City.
LA wins 775 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 17+ threes (it wins 33%), wins the turnover battle (35%) or gets 32+ from Garland (27%). The matchup to watch is Oklahoma City's ball security against LA's hands. Oklahoma City covers -15.5 in 49% and the game goes over 224.5 in 40%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Apr 8), Oklahoma City won in LA, 128-110.
Tonight Oklahoma City is without Nikola Topić.
Tonight LA is without Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller and Max Strus.
Oklahoma City went 64-18 last season (best record in the NBA).
LA went 42-40 last season (18th best record in the NBA).
Oklahoma City won the season series 3-0.
Kenrich Williams missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Brooks Barnhizer missed 3 of the 3 meetings.
Oklahoma City: gone: Luguentz Dort (now ATL), Isaiah Joe (now DET), Aaron Wiggins (now ATL); new: Jared McCain (from PHI), Aday Mara (no NBA minutes last season), Josh Dix (no NBA minutes last season), Bennett Stirtz (no NBA minutes last season).
LA: gone: Kawhi Leonard (now TOR), John Collins (now DET), James Harden (now CLE), Ivica Zubac (now IND); new: Darius Garland (from CLE), Rui Hachimura (from LAL), Keaton Wagler (no NBA minutes last season), Isaiah Jackson (from IND), Jalen Pickett (from DEN), Gradey Dick (from TOR), Baba Miller (no NBA minutes last season), Nick Martinelli (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
OKC: Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, J. Williams, Wallace, Mitchell
Bench: Hartenstein, Caruso, J. Williams, McCain, K. Williams, Mara (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Oweh, Sorber, Topić
No NBA history: Dix (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies)
LAC: Garland, Hachimura, Dunn, Jones, Wagler
Bench: Lopez, Sanders, Jackson, Pickett, Dick (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Beal, Ingram, J. Miller, Niederhäuser, Strus
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +7.0 points vs their usual FG% against Rui Hachimura and +2.6 against Darius Garland.
The stoppers on threes: Brook Lopez held shooters 1.9 points under their usual 3P%, Chet Holmgren held shooters 1.9 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Chet Holmgren sees Hachimura on 59% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Oklahoma City's ball security vs LA's hands.
Oklahoma City turned it over on 11.8% of possessions last season (fewest).
LA forced turnovers on 13.7% (15th most), with 9.0 steals (7th) and 4.9 blocks (14th) a game.
Shot diets.
Oklahoma City: 42.6% of shots from three (13th), 30.0% at the rim (15th).
LA: 40.4% of shots from three (19th), 29.6% at the rim (17th).
Oklahoma City's defense: 2nd fewest rim attempts allowed, 25th lowest opponent three-point % (36.9%).
LA's defense: 8th fewest rim attempts allowed, 22nd lowest opponent three-point % (36.4%).
Oklahoma City's offense runs through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 9.2 a game last season, 2nd most in the NBA.
1.20 points per play (top 4%), turnover on 9% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Oklahoma City's roll men scored 1.11 (15th in the league). Chet Holmgren alone: 1.33.
LA faced 17.6 of those a game (15th most) and ranked 7th defending them. Against the roll man: 17th.
In the sim: 1.15 Gilgeous-Alexander-to-Holmgren baskets a game (last season: 1.42).
With 7+ Gilgeous-Alexander assists, Oklahoma City wins 89.2%.
LA's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation. It ranked 5th, 3rd, 5th, 5th in points per play on them.
Oklahoma City's defense ranked 18th, 1st, 2nd, 2nd against those same four.
Darius Garland in one split:
Spot-up shots: 1.08 points per play (top 39%), 3.1 a game.
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.89 points per play (top 38%), 7.8 a game.
Oklahoma City's defense: 2nd against the pick-and-roll ball handler, 18th against spot-up shots.
Where LA can hit back:
- Oklahoma City was 18th defending spot-up shots. Rui Hachimura ran 4.1 a game at 1.26 per play
- Oklahoma City was 9th defending off-screen shots. Rui Hachimura ran 0.7 a game at 1.28 per play
One check against real life:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 27.3 points in his 3 games against LA last season, 32 of them on Dec 18. In our 5,000 sims: 33.8.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Oklahoma City leads by as many as 16 in the first half; Oklahoma City leads 56-40 at the break
- Oklahoma City's 8-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- Mitchell puts Oklahoma City ahead for good with 2:41 left in the 1st
- J. Williams finds J. Williams 3 times
- Garland finds Lopez 4 times
- Lopez goes 5 of 13 off LA's bench
- Oklahoma City leads by 18 at its high point in the 4th. LA gets within 13. Garland scores last; final 118-103 Oklahoma City
How LA wins (775 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 16.3 a game in its wins, 13.5 in its losses. At 17 or more, it wins 33%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 35%
- Garland scores 32 or more: then it wins 27%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Oklahoma City wins 84.5%. The books (Draft Kings) have Oklahoma City at 89%, ESPN's model at 90%.
Median score: Oklahoma City 117, LA 103
Oklahoma City covers -15.5 in 49%
Over 224.5 in 40%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Jared McCain threes line 2.5, sim 1.3; Rui Hachimura pts+reb line 22.5, sim 17.6; Darius Garland pts+reb line 22.5, sim 29.1
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 pts+reb (76%, sim avg 38.3)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 28.5 points (75%, sim avg 33.8)
- Kris Dunn under 1.5 threes (74%, sim avg 1.0)
- Chet Holmgren over 0.5 threes (71%, sim avg 1.2)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (LAC score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sun Oct 25, 8:06 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | over 32.5 pts+reb | 76% | -122 | 40 ✓ |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | over 28.5 points | 75% | -121 | 34 ✓ |
| Kris Dunn | under 1.5 threes | 74% | -227 | 1 ✓ |
| Chet Holmgren | over 0.5 threes | 71% | -176 | 2 ✓ |
| Cason Wallace | under 1.5 threes | 70% | -171 | 0 ✓ |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | over 35.5 pts+ast | 70% | -120 | 39 ✓ |
| Chet Holmgren | under 1.5 assists | 69% | -164 | 0 ✓ |
| Kris Dunn | over 3.5 rebounds | 69% | -140 | 4 ✓ |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | over 3.5 rebounds | 69% | -141 | 6 ✓ |
| Cason Wallace | under 8.5 points | 68% | -116 | 4 ✓ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCainnew team | threes | 2.5 | 1.3 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Rui Hachimuranew team | pts+reb | 22.5 | 17.6 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Darius Garlandnew team | pts+reb | 22.5 | 29.1 | 80% | over 80% | |
| Rui Hachimuranew team | points | 16.5 | 12.6 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Jared McCainnew team | points | 10.5 | 7.5 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | pts+reb | 32.5 | 38.3 | 76% | over 76% | |
| Darius Garlandnew team | pts+ast | 27.5 | 33.0 | 76% | over 76% | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | points | 28.5 | 33.8 | 75% | over 75% | |
| Darius Garlandnew team | points | 20.5 | 25.5 | 74% | over 74% | |
| Kris Dunn | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Darius Garlandnew team | threes | 2.5 | 3.7 | 72% | over 72% | |
| Isaiah Jacksonnew team | pts+reb | 13.5 | 11.4 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Chet Holmgren | threes | 0.5 | 1.2 | 71% | over 71% | |
| Darius Garlandnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.7 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Rui Hachimuranew team | threes | 2.5 | 1.9 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Cason Wallace | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | pts+ast | 35.5 | 39.7 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Chet Holmgren | assists | 1.5 | 1.1 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Kris Dunn | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.6 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.7 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Cason Wallace | points | 8.5 | 6.9 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Cason Wallace | pts+ast | 10.5 | 8.8 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Kris Dunn | assists | 3.5 | 4.5 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | pts+ast | 10.5 | 9.0 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.5 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Cason Wallace | pts+reb | 11.5 | 9.8 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Isaiah Jacksonnew team | points | 7.5 | 6.1 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | pts+reb | 15.5 | 13.8 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Jalen Williams | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jalen Williams | assists | 4.5 | 3.9 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Darius Garlandnew team | assists | 6.5 | 7.5 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | assists | 6.5 | 5.9 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Ajay Mitchell | threes | 0.5 | 0.9 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | points | 7.5 | 6.7 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | assists | 2.5 | 2.3 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Kris Dunn | points | 7.5 | 6.9 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | rebounds | 7.5 | 7.1 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Cason Wallace | assists | 1.5 | 1.9 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | threes | 1.5 | 2.0 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Isaiah Jacksonnew team | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.2 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Ajay Mitchell | pts+ast | 14.5 | 13.8 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Rui Hachimuranew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.0 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Ajay Mitchell | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.0 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Cason Wallace | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.9 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Jalen Williams | pts+ast | 22.5 | 21.9 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jalen Williams | points | 18.5 | 18.0 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Chet Holmgren | rebounds | 8.5 | 8.3 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | points | 10.5 | 10.4 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Kris Dunn | pts+ast | 11.5 | 11.4 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Jalen Williams | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Kris Dunn | pts+reb | 11.5 | 11.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | pts+reb | 14.5 | 15.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Ajay Mitchell | assists | 2.5 | 2.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Ajay Mitchell | points | 10.5 | 11.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Jalen Williams | pts+reb | 22.5 | 22.5 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Chet Holmgren | pts+reb | 22.5 | 23.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Ajay Mitchell | pts+reb | 13.5 | 14.0 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Chet Holmgren | pts+ast | 15.5 | 15.9 | 50% | over 50% | |
| Chet Holmgren | points | 14.5 | 14.8 | 50% | under 50% |