Atlanta @ Houston
Tip-off 5:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for HOU
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Houston winning 65.1% of 5,000 games, against 64% from the books. The median score is Houston 116, Atlanta 110. In the most typical game: Atlanta leads by as many as 15 in the first half; Atlanta leads 60-50 at the break. Houston's 18-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing. Sengun puts Houston ahead for good with 5:56 left in the 3rd. Eason goes 4 of 10 off Houston's bench. Houston leads by 17 at its high point in the 4th. Atlanta gets within 3. Sheppard scores last; final 117-111 Houston.
Atlanta wins 1,745 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 16+ threes (it wins 54%), wins the turnover battle (43%) or gets 24+ from Johnson (43%). The matchup to watch is Atlanta's ball security against Houston's hands. Houston covers -4.5 in 55% and the game goes over 229.5 in 44%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Mar 20), Houston won in Houston, 117-95.
Tonight Houston is without Steven Adams.
Tonight Atlanta is without Mouhamed Gueye.
Houston went 52-30 last season (8th best record in the NBA).
Atlanta went 46-36 last season (11th best record in the NBA).
Houston won the season series 2-0.
Houston: gone: Josh Okogie (now UTA); new: Fred VanVleet (no NBA minutes last season), Marcus Smart (from LAL), Bogdan Bogdanović (from LAC), Oscar Tshiebwe (from UTA), Julian Phillips (from CHI), Quadir Copeland (no NBA minutes last season).
Atlanta: gone: Zaccharie Risacher (now DAL), Vít Krejčí (now POR); new: Luguentz Dort (from OKC), Aaron Wiggins (from OKC), Jock Landale (from MEM), Keshon Gilbert (from WAS), Kingston Flemings (no NBA minutes last season), Jalen Wilson (from BKN), Dorian Finney-Smith (from HOU), RayJ Dennis (from IND).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
HOU: Thompson, Durant, Smith, VanVleet, Sengun
Bench: Sheppard, Eason, Smart, Bogdanović, Tshiebwe (+5 under 8 min)
Out: Adams
Maybe: Smart (50% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Copeland (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies)
ATL: Johnson, Alexander-Walker, Daniels, Okongwu, McCollum
Bench: Dort, Wiggins, Landale, Gilbert, Flemings, Kispert, Finney-Smith, Wilson (+2 under 8 min)
Out: Gueye, Veesaar
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +6.1 points vs their usual FG% against Nickeil Alexander-Walker and +2.9 against Alperen Sengun.
The stoppers on threes: Jalen Johnson held shooters 2.7 points under their usual 3P%, Amen Thompson held shooters 2.3 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Amen Thompson sees Alexander-Walker on 31% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Atlanta's ball security vs Houston's hands.
Atlanta turned it over on 12.9% of possessions last season (8th fewest).
Houston forced turnovers on 12.9% (21st most), with 8.5 steals (14th) and 5.8 blocks (3rd) a game.
Shot diets.
Houston: 35.0% of shots from three (28th), 29.1% at the rim (21st).
Atlanta: 42.9% of shots from three (11th), 30.6% at the rim (13th).
Houston's defense: 11th fewest rim attempts allowed, 7th lowest opponent three-point % (35.1%).
Atlanta's defense: 26th fewest rim attempts allowed, 12th lowest opponent three-point % (35.5%).
Houston's offense runs through Alperen Sengun on post-ups: 4.9 a game last season, 3rd most in the NBA.
0.97 points per play (bottom 46%), turnover on 16% of them.
Atlanta faced 4.2 of those a game (12th most) and ranked 7th defending them.
In the sim: 1.05 Sengun-to-Durant baskets a game (last season: 1.62).
With 6+ Sengun assists, Houston wins 71.1%.
Atlanta's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 7th, 16th, 24th, 20th in points per play on them.
Houston's defense ranked 23rd, 12th, 4th, 1st against those same four.
Jalen Johnson in one split:
Spot-up shots: 1.06 points per play (top 45%), 3.2 a game.
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.77 points per play (bottom 34%), 5.4 a game.
Houston's defense: 4th against the pick-and-roll ball handler, 23rd against spot-up shots.
Where Atlanta can hit back:
- Houston was 26th defending handoffs. CJ McCollum ran 1.5 a game at 0.89 per play
- Houston was 23rd defending spot-up shots. Luguentz Dort ran 5.4 a game at 1.03 per play
One check against real life:
Alperen Sengun scored 12.0 points in his 2 games against Atlanta last season, 15 of them on Mar 20. In our 5,000 sims: 18.2.
Jalen Johnson scored 14 in his one game against Houston last season. In our 5,000 sims: 18.8.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Atlanta leads by as many as 15 in the first half; Atlanta leads 60-50 at the break
- Houston's 18-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing
- Sengun puts Houston ahead for good with 5:56 left in the 3rd
- Eason goes 4 of 10 off Houston's bench
- Houston leads by 17 at its high point in the 4th. Atlanta gets within 3. Sheppard scores last; final 117-111 Houston
How Atlanta wins (1,745 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.1 a game in its wins, 12.9 in its losses. At 16 or more, it wins 54%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 43%
- Johnson scores 24 or more: then it wins 43%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Houston wins 65.1%. The books (Draft Kings) have Houston at 64%, ESPN's model at 57%.
Median score: Houston 116, Atlanta 110
Houston covers -4.5 in 55%
Over 229.5 in 44%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Aaron Wiggins pts+reb line 14.5, sim 9.5; Aaron Wiggins points line 11.5, sim 7.3; Luguentz Dort pts+reb line 9.5, sim 7.6
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.3 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Tari Eason under 16.5 pts+reb (85%, sim avg 11.7)
- Tari Eason under 11.5 points (84%, sim avg 7.5)
- Dyson Daniels under 18.5 pts+reb (78%, sim avg 14.8)
- Jalen Johnson under 31.5 pts+reb (77%, sim avg 26.6)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (ATL score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Mon Oct 26, 8:12 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tari Eason | under 16.5 pts+reb | 85% | -126 | |
| Tari Eason | under 11.5 points | 84% | -113 | |
| Dyson Daniels | under 18.5 pts+reb | 78% | -120 | |
| Jalen Johnson | under 31.5 pts+reb | 77% | -115 | |
| Alperen Sengun | under 30.5 pts+reb | 76% | -120 | |
| Jalen Johnson | under 29.5 pts+ast | 76% | -116 | |
| Dyson Daniels | under 12.5 points | 75% | -125 | |
| Dyson Daniels | under 6.5 rebounds | 75% | -141 | |
| Tari Eason | under 5.5 rebounds | 75% | -139 | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | under 21.5 pts+ast | 73% | -117 |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Wigginsnew team | pts+reb | 14.5 | 9.5 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Tari Eason | pts+reb | 16.5 | 11.7 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Aaron Wigginsnew team | points | 11.5 | 7.3 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Tari Eason | points | 11.5 | 7.5 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Dyson Daniels | pts+reb | 18.5 | 14.8 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Jalen Johnson | pts+reb | 31.5 | 26.6 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Alperen Sengun | pts+reb | 30.5 | 26.1 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Jalen Johnson | pts+ast | 29.5 | 25.1 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Dyson Daniels | points | 12.5 | 9.7 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Dyson Daniels | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.1 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Tari Eason | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.2 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | pts+ast | 21.5 | 17.8 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Alperen Sengun | rebounds | 9.5 | 7.9 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | pts+reb | 21.5 | 17.8 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Jalen Johnson | points | 22.5 | 18.8 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | points | 18.5 | 15.1 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Alperen Sengun | assists | 5.5 | 4.4 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Luguentz Dortnew team | pts+reb | 9.5 | 7.6 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Aaron Wigginsnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 29% | under 71% | |
| CJ McCollum | assists | 3.5 | 2.7 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Jalen Johnson | assists | 7.5 | 6.3 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | assists | 3.5 | 2.8 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.7 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Dyson Daniels | pts+ast | 16.5 | 14.2 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Amen Thompson | pts+reb | 25.5 | 22.5 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | assists | 5.5 | 4.5 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | pts+reb | 18.5 | 15.9 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Luguentz Dortnew team | points | 6.5 | 5.2 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Alperen Sengun | pts+ast | 25.5 | 22.6 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Amen Thompson | rebounds | 8.5 | 7.3 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Luguentz Dortnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Amen Thompson | points | 17.5 | 15.2 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Kevin Durant | threes | 1.5 | 2.3 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | pts+ast | 14.5 | 12.5 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Alperen Sengun | points | 20.5 | 18.2 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.6 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | points | 14.5 | 12.6 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Amen Thompson | pts+ast | 21.5 | 19.5 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | pts+ast | 18.5 | 16.5 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jock Landalenew team | pts+reb | 10.5 | 9.5 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | pts+reb | 20.5 | 18.8 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Jalen Johnson | rebounds | 8.5 | 7.8 | 38% | under 62% | |
| CJ McCollum | threes | 1.5 | 2.1 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | points | 11.5 | 10.3 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.2 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | assists | 2.5 | 2.2 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Kevin Durant | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.3 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Jock Landalenew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Alperen Sengun | threes | 0.5 | 0.5 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | rebounds | 5.5 | 6.3 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Tari Eason | threes | 0.5 | 0.9 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.3 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Jalen Johnson | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Jock Landalenew team | points | 6.5 | 6.2 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Luguentz Dortnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | points | 12.5 | 12.0 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | threes | 1.5 | 1.9 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Amen Thompson | assists | 4.5 | 4.3 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jock Landalenew team | threes | 0.5 | 0.6 | 44% | under 56% | |
| CJ McCollum | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| CJ McCollum | pts+ast | 18.5 | 18.0 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Fred VanVleetnew team | pts+reb | 15.5 | 15.2 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| CJ McCollum | points | 15.5 | 15.3 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Dyson Daniels | assists | 4.5 | 4.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Kevin Durant | assists | 3.5 | 3.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Kevin Durant | pts+reb | 28.5 | 29.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| CJ McCollum | pts+reb | 17.5 | 17.7 | 50% | under 50% | |
| Kevin Durant | pts+ast | 27.5 | 27.7 | 50% | under 50% | |
| Kevin Durant | points | 23.5 | 23.9 | 50% | over 50% |