Golden State @ Denver
Tip-off 7:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for DEN
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Denver winning 54.8% of 5,000 games, against 71% from the books. The median score is Denver 120, Golden State 118. In the most typical game: Denver leads by as many as 15 in the first half; Denver leads 61-57 at the break. Golden State's 12-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing. Murray puts Denver ahead for good with 12:00 left in the 1st. Jokić finds Murray 3 times. Williams finds Lendeborg 3 times. Cryer goes 4 of 7 off Golden State's bench. Denver leads by 17 at its high point in the 4th. Golden State gets within 2. Niang scores last; final 120-118 Denver.
Golden State wins 2,260 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 19+ threes (it wins 70%), wins the turnover battle (51%) or gets 29+ from Curry (60%). The matchup to watch is Denver's ball security against Golden State's hands. Denver covers -7.5 in 37% and the game goes over 236.5 in 53%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Mar 29), Denver won in Denver, 116-93.
Tonight Denver is without Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther.
Tonight Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porziņģis.
Denver went 54-28 last season (5th best record in the NBA).
Golden State went 37-45 last season (20th best record in the NBA).
Denver won the season series 2-2.
Zeke Nnaji missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Stephen Curry missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
De'Anthony Melton missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Al Horford missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Denver: gone: Tim Hardaway Jr. (now MIA), Bruce Brown (off the league rosters), Peyton Watson (now CLE); new: DeMar DeRozan (from SAC), Trevon Brazile (no NBA minutes last season), Alpha Diallo (no NBA minutes last season), Marvin Bagley III (from WAS), Ryan Nembhard (from DAL), Cam Whitmore (from WAS), Tyus Jones (from ORL), Bryce Hopkins (no NBA minutes last season).
Golden State: gone: Pat Spencer (now PHX); new: Yaxel Lendeborg (no NBA minutes last season), Brandon Williams (from DAL), Georges Niang (from UTA), Graham Ike (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
DEN: Murray, Jokić, Braun, DeRozan, Gordon
Bench: Brazile, Bagley, Nembhard, Whitmore (+6 under 8 min)
Out: S. Jones, Strawther
Maybe: Johnson (20% to play, minutes scaled), Diallo (20% to play, minutes scaled)
GSW: Lendeborg, Curry, Podziemski, Green, Williams
Bench: Melton, Horford, Niang, Richard, Ike, Santos, Bassey, Payton, Cryer (+1 under 8 min)
Out: Butler, Moody, Porziņģis
Maybe: Santos (50% to play, minutes scaled), Williams (90% to play, minutes scaled), Bassey (90% to play, minutes scaled)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +7.2 points vs their usual FG% against DeMar DeRozan and +3.0 against Nikola Jokić.
The stoppers on threes: Aaron Gordon held shooters 11.9 points under their usual 3P%, Christian Braun held shooters 4.4 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Stephen Curry sees DeRozan on 10% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Denver's ball security vs Golden State's hands.
Denver turned it over on 12.0% of possessions last season (3rd fewest).
Golden State forced turnovers on 15.0% (4th most), with 9.7 steals (2nd) and 4.2 blocks (26th) a game.
Shot diets.
Denver: 40.8% of shots from three (17th), 29.2% at the rim (19th).
Golden State: 49.7% of shots from three (1st), 27.8% at the rim (25th).
Denver's defense: 6th fewest rim attempts allowed, 3rd lowest opponent three-point % (34.9%).
Golden State's defense: 10th fewest rim attempts allowed, 19th lowest opponent three-point % (36.0%).
Denver's offense runs through Jamal Murray on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 7.5 a game last season, 10th most in the NBA.
1.04 points per play (top 11%), turnover on 12% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Denver's roll men scored 1.24 (2nd in the league). Nikola Jokić alone: 1.25.
Golden State faced 15.5 of those a game (26th most) and ranked 15th defending them. Against the roll man: 7th.
In the sim: 1.73 Murray-to-Jokić baskets a game (last season: 2.70).
With 6+ Murray assists, Denver wins 61.2%.
Golden State's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 14th, 27th, 18th, 4th in points per play on them.
Denver's defense ranked 4th, 30th, 18th, 11th against those same four.
Stephen Curry in one split:
Handoffs: 1.61 points per play (top 1%), 2.8 a game.
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.97 points per play (top 21%), 4.9 a game.
Denver's defense: 18th against the pick-and-roll ball handler, 24th against handoffs.
Where Golden State can hit back:
- Denver was 30th defending transition. Stephen Curry ran 3.3 a game at 1.03 per play
- Denver was 24th defending handoffs. Stephen Curry ran 2.8 a game at 1.61 per play
One check against real life:
Jamal Murray scored 22.2 points in his 4 games against Golden State last season, 25 of them on Oct 23. In our 5,000 sims: 23.5.
Stephen Curry scored 42 in his one game against Denver last season. In our 5,000 sims: 22.6.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Denver leads by as many as 15 in the first half; Denver leads 61-57 at the break
- Golden State's 12-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing
- Murray puts Denver ahead for good with 12:00 left in the 1st
- Jokić finds Murray 3 times
- Williams finds Lendeborg 3 times
- Cryer goes 4 of 7 off Golden State's bench
- Denver leads by 17 at its high point in the 4th. Golden State gets within 2. Niang scores last; final 120-118 Denver
How Golden State wins (2,260 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 17.1 a game in its wins, 14.5 in its losses. At 19 or more, it wins 70%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 51%
- Curry scores 29 or more: then it wins 60%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Denver wins 54.8%. The books (Draft Kings) have Denver at 71%, ESPN's model at 76%.
Median score: Denver 120, Golden State 118
Denver covers -7.5 in 37%
Over 236.5 in 53%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Trevon Brazile rebounds line 7.5, sim 4.5; Trevon Brazile pts+reb line 17.5, sim 12.8; DeMar DeRozan assists line 3.5, sim 2.9
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.5 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Aaron Gordon under 21.5 pts+reb (87%, sim avg 15.3)
- Brandin Podziemski under 21.5 pts+reb (86%, sim avg 15.6)
- Aaron Gordon under 18.5 pts+ast (86%, sim avg 12.9)
- Brandin Podziemski under 19.5 pts+ast (83%, sim avg 14.4)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (GSW score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Mon Oct 26, 8:12 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gui Santos | under 12.5 pts+reb | 95% | -123 | |
| Gui Santos | under 8.5 points | 89% | -130 | |
| Gui Santos | under 3.5 rebounds | 88% | -120 | |
| Aaron Gordon | under 21.5 pts+reb | 87% | -118 | |
| Brandin Podziemski | under 21.5 pts+reb | 86% | -124 | |
| Aaron Gordon | under 18.5 pts+ast | 86% | -120 | |
| Brandin Podziemski | under 19.5 pts+ast | 83% | -124 | |
| Aaron Gordon | under 15.5 points | 82% | -124 | |
| Draymond Green | under 5.5 rebounds | 79% | -150 | |
| Brandin Podziemski | under 15.5 points | 79% | -123 |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gui Santos | pts+reb | 12.5 | 6.4 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Trevon Brazilenew team | rebounds | 7.5 | 4.5 | 8% | under 92% | |
| Gui Santos | points | 8.5 | 4.5 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Gui Santos | rebounds | 3.5 | 1.9 | 12% | under 88% | |
| Aaron Gordon | pts+reb | 21.5 | 15.3 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Brandin Podziemski | pts+reb | 21.5 | 15.6 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Aaron Gordon | pts+ast | 18.5 | 12.9 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Trevon Brazilenew team | pts+reb | 17.5 | 12.8 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Brandin Podziemski | pts+ast | 19.5 | 14.4 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Aaron Gordon | points | 15.5 | 10.9 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Draymond Green | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.0 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Brandin Podziemski | points | 15.5 | 11.5 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Nikola Jokić | assists | 9.5 | 7.6 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Christian Braun | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Jamal Murray | assists | 6.5 | 5.0 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Draymond Green | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Draymond Green | pts+ast | 13.5 | 10.8 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Draymond Green | pts+reb | 12.5 | 10.2 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Christian Braun | pts+reb | 16.5 | 14.0 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Aaron Gordon | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Aaron Gordon | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.5 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Christian Braun | points | 11.5 | 9.6 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Draymond Green | assists | 5.5 | 4.6 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Brandin Podziemski | assists | 3.5 | 2.9 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Nikola Jokić | pts+ast | 36.5 | 33.5 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Aaron Gordon | assists | 2.5 | 2.0 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Stephen Curry | pts+ast | 29.5 | 26.4 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Draymond Green | points | 7.5 | 6.2 | 33% | under 67% | |
| De'Anthony Melton | points | 10.5 | 9.0 | 34% | under 66% | |
| DeMar DeRozannew team | assists | 3.5 | 2.9 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Nikola Jokić | rebounds | 12.5 | 11.2 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Jamal Murray | threes | 3.5 | 2.9 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Stephen Curry | assists | 4.5 | 3.8 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Trevon Brazilenew team | points | 9.5 | 8.3 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Stephen Curry | threes | 4.5 | 3.9 | 36% | under 64% | |
| De'Anthony Melton | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 37% | under 63% | |
| De'Anthony Melton | pts+reb | 12.5 | 11.3 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Nikola Jokić | pts+reb | 39.5 | 37.1 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Brandin Podziemski | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.0 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Jamal Murray | pts+ast | 30.5 | 28.6 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Stephen Curry | points | 24.5 | 22.6 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Stephen Curry | pts+reb | 27.5 | 25.5 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 6.0 | 39% | under 61% | |
| De'Anthony Melton | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.3 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | points | 14.5 | 16.1 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Jamal Murray | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| DeMar DeRozannew team | points | 13.5 | 14.9 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Jamal Murray | points | 24.5 | 23.5 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.9 | 57% | over 57% | |
| DeMar DeRozannew team | pts+ast | 16.5 | 17.8 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Stephen Curry | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.0 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Christian Braun | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.3 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | pts+ast | 18.5 | 19.9 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Jamal Murray | pts+reb | 28.5 | 27.8 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Nikola Jokić | points | 26.5 | 25.9 | 45% | under 55% | |
| DeMar DeRozannew team | pts+reb | 16.5 | 17.4 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Brandin Podziemski | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | assists | 3.5 | 3.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| DeMar DeRozannew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.5 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Nikola Jokić | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Yaxel Lendeborgnew team | pts+reb | 21.5 | 22.1 | 51% | over 51% |