Orlando @ New York
Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for NYK
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has New York winning 72.5% of 5,000 games, against 72% from the books. The median score is New York 115, Orlando 106. In the most typical game: Orlando leads by as many as 11 in the first half; Orlando leads 61-54 at the break. New York's 10-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. Brunson puts New York ahead for good with 4:54 left in the 4th. Vučević goes 5 of 11 off Orlando's bench. New York leads by 10 at its high point in the 4th. Orlando pulls even late. Anunoby scores last; final 115-105 New York.
Orlando wins 1,375 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 14+ threes (it wins 45%), wins the turnover battle (36%) or gets 27+ from Wagner (38%). The matchup to watch is New York's ball security against Orlando's hands. New York covers -7.5 in 56% and the game goes over 224.5 in 41%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Dec 13), New York won in Orlando, 132-120.
Tonight Orlando is without Paolo Banchero.
New York went 53-29 last season (6th best record in the NBA).
Orlando went 45-37 last season (13th best record in the NBA).
New York won the season series 2-2.
Miles McBride missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Landry Shamet missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Jamal Cain missed 4 of the 4 meetings.
New York: gone: Mitchell Robinson (now BOS); new: Andre Drummond (from PHI), Jose Alvarado (from NOP), James Wiseman (from IND), Dalton Knecht (from LAL), Tyler Nickel (rookie, #47 pick).
Orlando: new: Nikola Vučević (from CHI).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
NYK: Brunson, Anunoby, Bridges, Hart, Towns
Bench: McBride, Shamet, Drummond, Clarkson, Alvarado (+5 under 8 min)
Maybe: Alvarado (50% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Nickel (#47 pick, 3 min from past rookies)
ORL: Bane, Wagner, W. Carter, Suggs, Silva
Bench: Vučević, Black, J. Carter, Bitadze, Cain (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Banchero, Isaac, Nelson, Penda
Maybe: Black (50% to play, minutes scaled)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +2.5 points vs their usual FG% against Jalen Brunson and +2.0 against Jalen Suggs.
The stoppers on threes: Desmond Bane held shooters 5.8 points under their usual 3P%, Tristan da Silva held shooters 3.6 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Jalen Suggs sees Brunson on 19% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: New York's ball security vs Orlando's hands.
New York turned it over on 13.0% of possessions last season (9th fewest).
Orlando forced turnovers on 13.9% (12th most), with 8.5 steals (16th) and 4.7 blocks (17th) a game.
Shot diets.
New York: 42.8% of shots from three (12th), 29.8% at the rim (16th).
Orlando: 38.6% of shots from three (24th), 33.6% at the rim (6th).
New York's defense: 13th fewest rim attempts allowed, 20th lowest opponent three-point % (36.2%).
Orlando's defense: 15th fewest rim attempts allowed, 11th lowest opponent three-point % (35.3%).
New York's offense runs through Jalen Brunson on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 8.3 a game last season, 6th most in the NBA.
1.01 points per play (top 14%), turnover on 11% of them.
When it goes to the roller: New York's roll men scored 1.17 (8th in the league). Karl-Anthony Towns alone: 1.37.
Orlando faced 18.3 of those a game (12th most) and ranked 21st defending them. Against the roll man: 22nd.
In the sim: 1.10 Brunson-to-Towns baskets a game (last season: 1.37).
With 7+ Brunson assists, New York wins 78.6%.
Orlando's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 25th, 13th, 20th, 12th in points per play on them.
New York's defense ranked 14th, 23rd, 8th, 26th against those same four.
Franz Wagner in one split:
Transition: 1.38 points per play (top 8%), 4.1 a game.
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 1.02 points per play (top 13%), 4.3 a game.
New York's defense: 8th against the pick-and-roll ball handler, 23rd against transition.
Where Orlando can hit back:
- New York was 28th defending off-screen shots. Desmond Bane ran 1.4 a game at 1.04 per play
- New York was 26th defending cuts. Wendell Carter Jr. ran 2.2 a game at 1.27 per play
One check against real life:
Jalen Brunson scored 33.5 points in his 4 games against Orlando last season, 40 of them on Dec 13. In our 5,000 sims: 27.7.
Franz Wagner scored 24.0 points in his 3 games against New York last season, 37 of them on Nov 22. In our 5,000 sims: 21.3.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Orlando leads by as many as 11 in the first half; Orlando leads 61-54 at the break
- New York's 10-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- Brunson puts New York ahead for good with 4:54 left in the 4th
- Vučević goes 5 of 11 off Orlando's bench
- New York leads by 10 at its high point in the 4th. Orlando pulls even late. Anunoby scores last; final 115-105 New York
How Orlando wins (1,375 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 13.3 a game in its wins, 11.2 in its losses. At 14 or more, it wins 45%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 36%
- Wagner scores 27 or more: then it wins 38%
Across all 5,000 sims:
New York wins 72.5%. The books (Draft Kings) have New York at 72%, ESPN's model at 70%.
Median score: New York 115, Orlando 106
New York covers -7.5 in 56%
Over 224.5 in 41%
Leans:
Caution: tonight the sim sits 0.8 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Tristan da Silva under 2.5 threes (87%, sim avg 1.3)
- Tristan da Silva under 16.5 pts+reb (85%, sim avg 11.6)
- Tristan da Silva under 13.5 pts+ast (80%, sim avg 9.7)
- Tristan da Silva under 11.5 points (79%, sim avg 8.1)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (ORL score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sun Oct 25, 8:06 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan da Silva | under 2.5 threes | 87% | -140 | 5 ✗ |
| Tristan da Silva | under 16.5 pts+reb | 85% | -130 | 21 ✗ |
| Tristan da Silva | under 13.5 pts+ast | 80% | -116 | 21 ✗ |
| Tristan da Silva | under 11.5 points | 79% | -115 | 19 ✗ |
| Josh Hart | under 16.5 pts+ast | 79% | -121 | 15 ✓ |
| Franz Wagner | under 5.5 assists | 78% | -152 | 9 ✗ |
| Josh Hart | under 19.5 pts+reb | 76% | -116 | 21 ✗ |
| Josh Hart | under 11.5 points | 74% | -117 | 13 ✗ |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | under 31.5 pts+reb | 73% | -122 | 36 ✗ |
| Tristan da Silva | under 4.5 rebounds | 73% | -135 | 2 ✓ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan da Silva | threes | 2.5 | 1.3 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Tristan da Silva | pts+reb | 16.5 | 11.6 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Tristan da Silva | pts+ast | 13.5 | 9.7 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Tristan da Silva | points | 11.5 | 8.1 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Josh Hart | pts+ast | 16.5 | 12.8 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Franz Wagner | assists | 5.5 | 4.1 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Josh Hart | pts+reb | 19.5 | 16.1 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Josh Hart | points | 11.5 | 8.8 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | pts+reb | 31.5 | 27.4 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Tristan da Silva | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.5 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Josh Hart | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 28% | under 72% | |
| OG Anunoby | threes | 2.5 | 1.9 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | rebounds | 11.5 | 10.2 | 33% | under 67% | |
| OG Anunoby | pts+ast | 18.5 | 16.2 | 33% | under 67% | |
| OG Anunoby | points | 16.5 | 14.5 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Jalen Suggs | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.9 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | pts+ast | 22.5 | 20.4 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jalen Suggs | assists | 6.5 | 5.8 | 36% | under 64% | |
| OG Anunoby | pts+reb | 21.5 | 19.5 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | pts+reb | 19.5 | 17.7 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Franz Wagner | pts+ast | 27.5 | 25.4 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Jalen Brunson | assists | 6.5 | 5.8 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Jalen Suggs | threes | 2.5 | 2.1 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Josh Hart | assists | 4.5 | 4.0 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Mikal Bridges | pts+ast | 15.5 | 14.1 | 37% | under 63% | |
| OG Anunoby | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.0 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Mikal Bridges | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | assists | 3.5 | 3.1 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Mikal Bridges | points | 12.5 | 11.3 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Jalen Brunson | pts+reb | 28.5 | 31.0 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | points | 11.5 | 10.5 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Mikal Bridges | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Jalen Suggs | pts+ast | 20.5 | 19.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Jalen Brunson | points | 25.5 | 27.7 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Mikal Bridges | pts+reb | 15.5 | 14.6 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Jalen Suggs | points | 14.5 | 13.6 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Jalen Suggs | pts+reb | 18.5 | 17.5 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Jalen Brunson | pts+ast | 31.5 | 33.5 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Franz Wagner | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.3 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Franz Wagner | pts+reb | 27.5 | 26.6 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Jalen Brunson | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.3 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Franz Wagner | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | rebounds | 7.5 | 7.3 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Desmond Bane | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Miles McBride | points | 7.5 | 7.3 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Josh Hart | rebounds | 7.5 | 7.3 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Desmond Bane | assists | 3.5 | 3.8 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Desmond Bane | points | 19.5 | 20.5 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Miles McBride | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Desmond Bane | pts+ast | 23.5 | 24.3 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Franz Wagner | points | 21.5 | 21.3 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Jalen Brunson | threes | 2.5 | 2.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Desmond Bane | pts+reb | 24.5 | 25.2 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Tristan da Silva | assists | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Mikal Bridges | assists | 2.5 | 2.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Desmond Bane | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| OG Anunoby | assists | 1.5 | 1.7 | 50% | over 50% |