Toronto @ Minnesota
Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for MIN
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Minnesota winning 52.6% of 5,000 games, against 51% from the books. The median score is Minnesota 115, Toronto 114. In the most typical game: Toronto leads by as many as 9 in the first half; Toronto leads 63-59 at the break. Toronto's 10-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Williams puts Minnesota ahead for good with 0:00 left in the 4th. McDaniels finds Ball 3 times. Barnes finds Leonard 3 times. Williams goes 4 of 5 off Minnesota's bench. Minnesota leads by 2 at its high point in the 4th. Toronto pulls even late. Williams scores last; final 115-114 Minnesota.
Toronto wins 2,372 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 13+ threes (it wins 64%), wins the turnover battle (55%) or gets 30+ from Leonard (60%). The matchup to watch is Toronto's ball security against Minnesota's hands. Minnesota covers -1.5 in 50% and the game goes over 230.5 in 48%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Mar 5), Minnesota won in Minnesota, 115-107.
Tonight Minnesota is without Donte DiVincenzo.
Minnesota went 49-33 last season (10th best record in the NBA).
Toronto went 46-36 last season (11th best record in the NBA).
Minnesota won the season series 2-0.
Minnesota: gone: Julius Randle (now BKN), Naz Reid (now CHA), Mike Conley (now BOS); new: LaMelo Ball (from CHA), Ayo Dosunmu (from CHI), Jonathan Kuminga (from GSW), Cody Williams (from UTA), Trey Lyles (no NBA minutes last season), Isaiah Evans (no NBA minutes last season).
Toronto: gone: Brandon Ingram (now LAC), Sandro Mamukelashvili (now LAL); new: Kawhi Leonard (from LAC), Malachi Smith (from BKN), Kyle Anderson (from UTA), Allen Graves (no NBA minutes last season), Trayce Jackson-Davis (from GSW), Jaden Bradley (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
MIN: Edwards, McDaniels, Gobert, Ball, Dosunmu
Bench: Kuminga, Williams, Lyles, Jr, Hyland (+5 under 8 min)
Out: DiVincenzo
TOR: Barnes, Quickley, Leonard, Barrett, Poeltl
Bench: Shead, Smith, Walter, Murray-Boyles, Anderson (+5 under 8 min)
Out: Bittle
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +5.9 points vs their usual FG% against Kawhi Leonard and +3.7 against LaMelo Ball.
The stoppers on threes: Ayo Dosunmu held shooters 5.6 points under their usual 3P%, Jaden McDaniels held shooters 0.9 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Jaden McDaniels sees Leonard on 47% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Toronto's ball security vs Minnesota's hands.
Toronto turned it over on 12.8% of possessions last season (7th fewest).
Minnesota forced turnovers on 13.8% (14th most), with 8.7 steals (12th) and 5.8 blocks (2nd) a game.
Shot diets.
Minnesota: 42.0% of shots from three (16th), 31.3% at the rim (10th).
Toronto: 36.3% of shots from three (25th), 31.5% at the rim (9th).
Minnesota's defense: 25th fewest rim attempts allowed, 13th lowest opponent three-point % (35.5%).
Toronto's defense: 20th fewest rim attempts allowed, 4th lowest opponent three-point % (34.9%).
Minnesota's offense runs through LaMelo Ball on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 8.6 a game last season, 4th most in the NBA.
0.87 points per play (top 43%), turnover on 14% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Minnesota's roll men scored 1.16 (9th in the league). Rudy Gobert alone: 1.27.
Toronto faced 18.3 of those a game (13th most) and ranked 21st defending them. Against the roll man: 12th.
In the sim: 1.23 Ball-to-Edwards baskets a game.
With 7+ Ball assists, Minnesota wins 59.9%.
Toronto's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 24th, 17th, 23rd, 13th in points per play on them.
Minnesota's defense ranked 10th, 14th, 15th, 5th against those same four.
Kawhi Leonard in one split:
Post-ups: 1.23 points per play (top 11%), 1.5 a game.
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 1.10 points per play (top 6%), 5.9 a game.
Minnesota's defense: 15th against the pick-and-roll ball handler, 30th against post-ups.
Where Toronto can hit back:
- Minnesota was 30th defending post-ups. Scottie Barnes ran 1.9 a game at 1.01 per play
- Minnesota was 19th defending handoffs. RJ Barrett ran 1.3 a game at 1.11 per play
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Toronto leads by as many as 9 in the first half; Toronto leads 63-59 at the break
- Toronto's 10-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- Williams puts Minnesota ahead for good with 0:00 left in the 4th
- McDaniels finds Ball 3 times
- Barnes finds Leonard 3 times
- Williams goes 4 of 5 off Minnesota's bench
- Minnesota leads by 2 at its high point in the 4th. Toronto pulls even late. Williams scores last; final 115-114 Minnesota
How Toronto wins (2,372 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 11.5 a game in its wins, 9.8 in its losses. At 13 or more, it wins 64%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 55%
- Leonard scores 30 or more: then it wins 60%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Minnesota wins 52.6%. The books (Draft Kings) have Minnesota at 51%, ESPN's model at 60%.
Median score: Minnesota 115, Toronto 114
Minnesota covers -1.5 in 50%
Over 230.5 in 48%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Jonathan Kuminga threes line 1.5, sim 0.8; Kawhi Leonard assists line 3.5, sim 2.4; Jonathan Kuminga assists line 2.5, sim 1.8
Caution: tonight the sim sits 0.8 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Terrence Shannon Jr under 11.5 pts+reb (94%, sim avg 5.6)
- Terrence Shannon Jr under 10.5 pts+ast (94%, sim avg 5.1)
- Terrence Shannon Jr under 2.5 rebounds (89%, sim avg 1.2)
- Terrence Shannon Jr under 8.5 points (89%, sim avg 4.4)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (TOR score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sun Oct 25, 8:06 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence Shannon Jr | under 11.5 pts+reb | 94% | -128 | 19 ✗ |
| Terrence Shannon Jr | under 10.5 pts+ast | 94% | -119 | 18 ✗ |
| Terrence Shannon Jr | under 2.5 rebounds | 89% | -150 | 4 ✗ |
| Terrence Shannon Jr | under 8.5 points | 89% | -122 | 15 ✗ |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | under 14.5 pts+reb | 87% | -127 | 10 ✓ |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | under 5.5 rebounds | 84% | -149 | 7 ✗ |
| Jamal Shead | under 4.5 assists | 78% | -150 | 0 ✓ |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | under 8.5 points | 77% | -127 | 3 ✓ |
| RJ Barrett | under 3.5 assists | 75% | -165 | 2 ✓ |
| Jamal Shead | under 10.5 pts+ast | 75% | -124 | 4 ✓ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence Shannon Jr | pts+reb | 11.5 | 5.6 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Terrence Shannon Jr | pts+ast | 10.5 | 5.1 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Terrence Shannon Jr | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.2 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Terrence Shannon Jr | points | 8.5 | 4.4 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | pts+reb | 14.5 | 9.7 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | rebounds | 5.5 | 3.6 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.8 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Jamal Shead | assists | 4.5 | 3.2 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Kawhi Leonardnew team | assists | 3.5 | 2.4 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | points | 8.5 | 6.1 | 23% | under 77% | |
| RJ Barrett | assists | 3.5 | 2.5 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Jamal Shead | pts+ast | 10.5 | 8.1 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | assists | 2.5 | 1.8 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | pts+reb | 16.5 | 14.3 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Jakob Poeltl | pts+reb | 15.5 | 13.5 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Rudy Gobert | pts+reb | 20.5 | 18.4 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Scottie Barnes | pts+reb | 27.5 | 24.8 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Anthony Edwards | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.7 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | pts+ast | 16.5 | 14.5 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Immanuel Quickley | assists | 5.5 | 4.8 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Scottie Barnes | pts+ast | 25.5 | 23.1 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Jakob Poeltl | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.7 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | pts+reb | 18.5 | 16.6 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | points | 12.5 | 11.0 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | points | 13.5 | 12.0 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Scottie Barnes | rebounds | 7.5 | 6.8 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Jamal Shead | points | 5.5 | 4.9 | 37% | under 63% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | assists | 6.5 | 5.9 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Scottie Barnes | points | 19.5 | 18.0 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Kawhi Leonardnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.2 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Terrence Shannon Jr | threes | 0.5 | 0.5 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.1 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Scottie Barnes | threes | 0.5 | 1.0 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Jakob Poeltl | points | 8.5 | 7.8 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | pts+reb | 16.5 | 15.5 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Immanuel Quickley | threes | 2.5 | 2.3 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Scottie Barnes | assists | 5.5 | 5.1 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Rudy Gobert | points | 8.5 | 8.0 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Kawhi Leonardnew team | pts+ast | 27.5 | 26.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Kawhi Leonardnew team | pts+reb | 30.5 | 29.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Immanuel Quickley | pts+ast | 20.5 | 19.7 | 43% | under 57% | |
| RJ Barrett | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.0 | 56% | over 56% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | points | 18.5 | 19.9 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Anthony Edwards | assists | 3.5 | 3.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Anthony Edwards | threes | 3.5 | 3.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Kawhi Leonardnew team | points | 24.5 | 23.8 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Anthony Edwards | pts+reb | 32.5 | 33.8 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | pts+ast | 13.5 | 13.2 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Anthony Edwards | pts+ast | 30.5 | 31.5 | 54% | over 54% | |
| RJ Barrett | pts+ast | 21.5 | 21.2 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | points | 11.5 | 11.4 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Kawhi Leonardnew team | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | threes | 3.5 | 3.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | assists | 3.5 | 3.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Rudy Gobert | rebounds | 10.5 | 10.4 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Anthony Edwards | points | 27.5 | 28.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 24.2 | 52% | over 52% | |
| RJ Barrett | pts+reb | 23.5 | 23.7 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Immanuel Quickley | pts+reb | 18.5 | 18.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| RJ Barrett | points | 18.5 | 18.7 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Immanuel Quickley | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| RJ Barrett | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Immanuel Quickley | points | 14.5 | 14.9 | 50% | over 50% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | pts+ast | 25.5 | 25.9 | 50% | under 50% |