NE @ CHI
Kickoff 5:15 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for NE
Big disagreement with the books. Usually that means the sim is missing something (a quarterback change, line injuries, news). Check before trusting it.
NFL backtest: the books beat this sim on every period. Read it as context, not a bet. Details
Out: Anthony Johnson Jr., T.J. Edwards, Kyle Monangai, Dayo Odeyingbo, Montez Sweat, Channing Canada, Ben Brown, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Karon Prunty, Marcus Bryant, Carlton Davis III, Romeo Doubs
How the sim saw it
The sim has the Patriots winning 57.6% of 5,000 games, against 42% from the books. The median score is Bears 21, Patriots 24. In the most typical game: At the half: Bears 14, Patriots 20. Biggest leads: Bears by 0, Patriots by 10. Q1: Drake Maye to Eli Raridon, 66 yards for the longest score of the day. Turnovers: Bears 1. 0 lead changes. Final: Patriots 23-21.
The Bears win 2,100 of the 5,000. Their chances rise when Caleb Williams throws for 271+ (they win 57%), with no interceptions (49%) or when they run for 158+ (75%). The Bears cover -3 in 36% and the game goes over 50.5 in 34%. Typical lines: Drake Maye: 242 passing yards, 25 rushing yards; Caleb Williams: 215 passing yards, 22 rushing yards; A.J. Brown: 4.4 catches for 52 yards; Rome Odunze: 3.3 catches for 38 yards.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Bears won 30-24 in Chicago.
The Bears are 5-2 this season.
The Patriots are 4-3 this season.
Out tonight, starters only: T.J. Edwards, Dayo Odeyingbo, Montez Sweat, Ben Brown, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Romeo Doubs.
Who's in the sim:
CHI: QB Caleb Williams
Targets: Odunze 21%, Loveland 18%, Burden 16%, Swift 11%
Carries: Swift 18, Johnson 5
NE: QB Drake Maye
Targets: Brown 23%, Henry 21%, Douglas 18%, Stevenson 14%
Carries: Stevenson 13, Henderson 9
Flagged: Kalif Raymond (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); A.J. Brown (questionable, role scaled to 70%); Corey Kiner (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)
Who gets hunted: Drake Maye.
The Patriots line has given up a sack on 5.1% of dropbacks (19th most). The Bears get home on 8.5% (3rd most).
Down the field, the Bears allow 53.8% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (2nd most in the league).
The matchup: how each team moves the ball.
The Bears: pass-leaning on early downs (9th in pass rate over expected), 6.5 yards per dropback (15th), 4.3 per carry (10th). The Patriots defense: 16th against the pass, 13th against the run.
The Patriots: run-leaning on early downs (13th in pass rate over expected), 7.8 yards per dropback (3rd), 3.8 per carry (21st). The Bears defense: 30th against the pass, 21st against the run.
The Patriots engine: screens. 9.6% of their throws (13th most), 4.5 yards per attempt (18th).
The Bears rank 2nd defending screens (2.7 yards per attempt allowed).
Where the Bears hit back:
- The Patriots are 3rd worst defending play-action (10.6 yards per attempt). Colston Loveland sees the most of those targets.
- The Patriots are 6th worst defending deep shots (47.6% completed). Rome Odunze sees the most of those targets.
One check against real life:
Drake Maye threw for 321 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 244.
A.J. Brown caught 3 for 48. The sims: 4.4 for 58.
Caleb Williams threw for 308 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 219.
Rome Odunze caught 4 for 69. The sims: 3.3 for 43.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- At the half: Bears 14, Patriots 20
- Biggest leads: Bears by 0, Patriots by 10
- Q1: Drake Maye to Eli Raridon, 66 yards for the longest score of the day
- Turnovers: Bears 1
- 0 lead changes. Final: Patriots 23-21
How the Bears win (2,100 of the 5,000):
- Caleb Williams throws for 271+: then they win 57%
- No interceptions: 49%, vs 34% with one or more
- 158+ rushing yards: 75%
Across all 5,000 sims:
The Patriots win 57.6%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 42%.
Median score: Bears 21, Patriots 24
The Bears cover -3 in 36%
Over 50.5 in 34%
Typical lines:
- Drake Maye: 242 passing yards, 25 rushing yards
- Caleb Williams: 215 passing yards, 22 rushing yards
- A.J. Brown: 4.4 catches for 52 yards
- Rome Odunze: 3.3 catches for 38 yards
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Player projections
Median, with the 10th-90th percentile range.
| Player | Team | Role | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | pass yds 215 (141-301) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 22 (5-48) |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | RUSH/REC | rush yds 69 (32-120) · rec yds 18 (2-47) · catches 2 (1-5) |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | RUSH/REC | rush yds 15 (2-38) · rec yds 10 (0-32) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-10) · rec yds 36 (8-79) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Kalif Raymond | CHI | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-4) · rec yds 23 (2-58) · catches 2 (1-5) |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | REC | rec yds 38 (8-86) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | REC | rec yds 34 (8-77) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | REC | rec yds 19 (0-50) · catches 2 (1-5) |
| Jahdae Walker | CHI | REC | rec yds 0 (0-20) · catches 0 (0-2) |
| Zavion Thomas | CHI | REC | rec yds 0 (0-12) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | pass yds 242 (161-331) · pass TD 2 (0-3) · rush yds 25 (7-53) |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RUSH/REC | rush yds 46 (18-89) · rec yds 28 (6-63) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | RUSH/REC | rush yds 34 (11-69) · rec yds 9 (0-32) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Corey Kiner | NE | RUSH/REC | rush yds 6 (0-22) · rec yds 0 (0-12) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-4.1) · rec yds 41 (10-87) · catches 4 (1-6) |
| A.J. Brown | NE | REC | rec yds 52 (16-106) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Hunter Henry | NE | REC | rec yds 48 (14-98) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Kyle Williams | NE | REC | rec yds 11 (0-48) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Efton Chism III | NE | REC | rec yds 7 (0-36) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Eli Raridon | NE | REC | rec yds 3 (0-28.1) · catches 1 (0-2) |