Milwaukee @ Washington
Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for MIL
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Milwaukee winning 58.2% of 5,000 games, against 39% from the books. The median score is Washington 120, Milwaukee 123. In the most typical game: Milwaukee leads by as many as 10 in the first half; Milwaukee leads 63-60 at the break. Washington's 10-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing. Rollins puts Milwaukee ahead for good with 4:19 left in the 2nd. Kuzma goes 6 of 10 off Milwaukee's bench. Milwaukee leads by 13 at its high point in the 4th. Washington gets within 3. Young scores last; final 123-119 Milwaukee.
Washington wins 2,092 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 16+ threes (it wins 61%), wins the turnover battle (50%) or gets 23+ from Young (53%). The matchup to watch is Milwaukee's ball security against Washington's hands. Washington covers -4.5 in 32% and the game goes over 238.5 in 58%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Jan 29), Washington won in Washington, 109-99.
Tonight Washington is without Jamir Watkins.
Washington went 17-65 last season (30th best record in the NBA).
Milwaukee went 32-50 last season (21st best record in the NBA).
Washington won the season series 3-1.
Anthony Gill missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Jericho Sims missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Pete Nance missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Washington: new: Anthony Davis (from DAL), Deandre Ayton (from LAL), Trae Young (from ATL).
Milwaukee: gone: Bobby Portis (now MIA), Kevin Porter Jr. (off the league rosters); new: Tyler Herro (from MIA), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (from MIA), Kel'el Ware (from MIA).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
WAS: Riley, Carrington, Gill, Young, Coulibaly
Bench: Sarr, Johnson, George, Champagnie, Davis, Ayton
Out: Dybantsa, Vukcevic, Watkins
MIL: Rollins, Green, Dieng, Ryan, Sims
Bench: Kuzma, Nance, Turner, Herro, Jaquez, Ware
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +7.6 points vs their usual FG% against Bub Carrington and +3.6 against Will Riley.
The stoppers on threes: Tre Johnson held shooters 3.6 points under their usual 3P%, Justin Champagnie held shooters 2.6 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Ryan Rollins sees Carrington on 23% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Milwaukee's ball security vs Washington's hands.
Milwaukee turned it over on 14.5% of possessions last season (26th fewest).
Washington forced turnovers on 12.6% (22nd most), with 8.0 steals (21st) and 5.5 blocks (5th) a game.
Shot diets.
Washington: 40.3% of shots from three (20th), 29.2% at the rim (18th).
Milwaukee: 45.7% of shots from three (5th), 27.1% at the rim (26th).
Washington's defense: 30th fewest rim attempts allowed, 24th lowest opponent three-point % (36.8%).
Milwaukee's defense: 9th fewest rim attempts allowed, 28th lowest opponent three-point % (37.5%).
Milwaukee's offense runs through Ryan Rollins on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 7.0 a game last season, 16th most in the NBA.
0.89 points per play (top 40%), turnover on 16% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Milwaukee's roll men scored 1.18 (5th in the league). Myles Turner alone: 1.13.
Washington faced 17.1 of those a game (19th most) and ranked 27th defending them. Against the roll man: 6th.
In the sim: 0.79 Rollins-to-Kuzma baskets a game (last season: 0.94).
With 7+ Rollins assists, Milwaukee wins 65.6%.
Washington's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, the roll man. It ranked 30th, 30th, 6th, 11th in points per play on them.
Milwaukee's defense ranked 26th, 16th, 19th, 27th against those same four.
Where Washington can hit back:
- Milwaukee was 27th defending the roll man. Alex Sarr ran 3.8 a game at 1.08 per play
- Milwaukee was 27th defending handoffs. Kyshawn George ran 1.3 a game at 0.93 per play
One check against real life:
Ryan Rollins scored 14.0 points in his 4 games against Washington last season, 17 of them on Jan 29. In our 5,000 sims: 18.3.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Milwaukee leads by as many as 10 in the first half; Milwaukee leads 63-60 at the break
- Washington's 10-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing
- Rollins puts Milwaukee ahead for good with 4:19 left in the 2nd
- Kuzma goes 6 of 10 off Milwaukee's bench
- Milwaukee leads by 13 at its high point in the 4th. Washington gets within 3. Young scores last; final 123-119 Milwaukee
How Washington wins (2,092 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 14.1 a game in its wins, 12.3 in its losses. At 16 or more, it wins 61%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 50%
- Young scores 23 or more: then it wins 53%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Milwaukee wins 58.2%. The books (Draft Kings) have Milwaukee at 39%, ESPN's model at 35%.
Median score: Washington 120, Milwaukee 123
Washington covers -4.5 in 32%
Over 238.5 in 58%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Anthony Davis pts+reb line 32.5, sim 19.6; Anthony Davis rebounds line 11.5, sim 6.3; Anthony Davis pts+ast line 24.5, sim 15.1
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.5 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Kyshawn George under 18.5 pts+reb (87%, sim avg 12.8)
- Kyshawn George under 17.5 pts+ast (86%, sim avg 12.1)
- Kyshawn George under 2.5 threes (81%, sim avg 1.5)
- Kyshawn George under 13.5 points (80%, sim avg 9.5)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (MIL score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davisnew team | pts+reb | 32.5 | 19.6 | 2% | under 98% | |
| Anthony Davisnew team | rebounds | 11.5 | 6.3 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Anthony Davisnew team | pts+ast | 24.5 | 15.1 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | pts+reb | 26.5 | 16.6 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | pts+ast | 26.5 | 17.2 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Anthony Davisnew team | points | 20.5 | 13.3 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | points | 21.5 | 13.8 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Kel'el Warenew team | pts+reb | 18.5 | 12.0 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Kyshawn George | pts+reb | 18.5 | 12.8 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Kyshawn George | pts+ast | 17.5 | 12.1 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Kel'el Warenew team | pts+ast | 11.5 | 7.4 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | pts+reb | 17.5 | 12.6 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 2.9 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Kel'el Warenew team | points | 10.5 | 6.7 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Kel'el Warenew team | rebounds | 7.5 | 5.3 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | pts+ast | 17.5 | 12.9 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | points | 13.5 | 9.6 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Kyshawn George | threes | 2.5 | 1.5 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Kyshawn George | points | 13.5 | 9.5 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.1 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Trae Youngnew team | assists | 9.5 | 7.4 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Alex Sarr | rebounds | 6.5 | 4.9 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Kyshawn George | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.3 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | assists | 4.5 | 3.4 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Anthony Davisnew team | assists | 2.5 | 1.8 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Trae Youngnew team | pts+ast | 29.5 | 25.2 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Alex Sarr | assists | 2.5 | 1.8 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Kyshawn George | assists | 3.5 | 2.6 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 27% | under 73% | |
| AJ Green | pts+ast | 8.5 | 12.0 | 72% | over 72% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | threes | 2.5 | 1.8 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | pts+ast | 12.5 | 15.9 | 71% | over 71% | |
| Trae Youngnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.9 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Deandre Aytonnew team | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.5 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Deandre Aytonnew team | pts+reb | 12.5 | 10.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| AJ Green | pts+reb | 9.5 | 12.7 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Alex Sarr | pts+reb | 20.5 | 18.0 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | points | 10.5 | 13.4 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | pts+reb | 14.5 | 12.5 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Alex Sarr | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | pts+reb | 14.5 | 17.2 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Deandre Aytonnew team | points | 7.5 | 6.1 | 34% | under 66% | |
| AJ Green | points | 7.5 | 9.9 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Anthony Davisnew team | threes | 0.5 | 0.4 | 35% | under 65% | |
| AJ Green | assists | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Trae Youngnew team | pts+reb | 21.5 | 19.7 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | points | 10.5 | 9.3 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Ryan Rollins | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.0 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | pts+ast | 12.5 | 11.3 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | assists | 1.5 | 2.0 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Trae Youngnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.3 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Myles Turner | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Ryan Rollins | points | 16.5 | 18.3 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Tre Johnson | pts+reb | 14.5 | 13.6 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Ryan Rollins | pts+ast | 22.5 | 24.2 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Alex Sarr | pts+ast | 15.5 | 14.8 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Trae Youngnew team | points | 18.5 | 17.8 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Tre Johnson | pts+ast | 13.5 | 12.8 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | assists | 3.5 | 3.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Alex Sarr | points | 13.5 | 13.0 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Tre Johnson | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Tre Johnson | points | 11.5 | 11.1 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Ryan Rollins | assists | 5.5 | 5.9 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Myles Turner | pts+reb | 15.5 | 15.3 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Tre Johnson | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 54% | over 54% | |
| AJ Green | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.8 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Ryan Rollins | pts+reb | 21.5 | 22.3 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | assists | 2.5 | 2.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | threes | 0.5 | 0.7 | 48% | under 52% | |
| AJ Green | threes | 2.5 | 2.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Myles Turner | points | 10.5 | 11.1 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Myles Turner | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Tre Johnson | assists | 1.5 | 1.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Ryan Rollins | threes | 2.5 | 2.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Kel'el Warenew team | threes | 0.5 | 0.7 | 50% | under 50% |