DAL @ PHI
Kickoff 5:15 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for PHI
Big disagreement with the books. Usually that means the sim is missing something (a quarterback change, line injuries, news). Check before trusting it.
NFL backtest: the books beat this sim on every period. Read it as context, not a bet. Details
Out: Andy Dalton, P.J. Locke, Marist Liufau, Drew Shelton, Dee Winters, KaVontae Turpin, Landon Dickerson, Michael Carter II, Nolan Smith, Eli Stowers, Grant Calcaterra, Dontayvion Wicks, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts
How the sim saw it
The sim has the Eagles winning 60.6% of 5,000 games, against 36% from the books. The median score is Eagles 24, Cowboys 21. In the most typical game: At the half: Eagles 20, Cowboys 14. Biggest leads: Eagles by 10, Cowboys by 0. Q1: Tanner McKee to Makai Lemon, 34 yards for the longest score of the day. Turnovers: Eagles 2. 0 lead changes. Final: Eagles 26-21.
The Cowboys win 1,949 of the 5,000. Their chances rise when Dak Prescott throws for 301+ (they win 56%), with no interceptions (46%) or when they run for 136+ (74%). The Cowboys cover -4.5 in 29% and the game goes over 43.5 in 61%. Typical lines: Tanner McKee: 224 passing yards; Dak Prescott: 242 passing yards; Dallas Goedert: 6.0 catches for 59 yards; CeeDee Lamb: 5.6 catches for 65 yards.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (2025 week 12), the Cowboys won 24-21 in Dallas.
The Eagles are 2-4 this season.
The Cowboys are 2-4 this season.
Out tonight, starters only: Dee Winters, Landon Dickerson, Nolan Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts.
Who's in the sim:
PHI: QB Tanner McKee
Targets: Goedert 25%, Brown 17%, Moore 15%, Barkley 10%
Carries: Barkley 20, Pierce 9
DAL: QB Dak Prescott
Targets: Lamb 25%, Pickens 20%, Ferguson 14%, Flournoy 10%
Carries: Williams 16, Demercado 3
Flagged: Marquise Brown (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Elijah Moore (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Saquon Barkley (questionable, role scaled to 70%); Johnny Mundt (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Dameon Pierce (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Emari Demercado (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Tyler Goodson (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)
Who gets hunted: Tanner McKee.
The Eagles line has given up a sack on 7.0% of dropbacks (12th most). The Cowboys get home on 3.9% (28th most).
Down the field, the Cowboys allow 34.4% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (18th most in the league).
The matchup: how each team moves the ball.
The Eagles: run-leaning on early downs (17th in pass rate over expected), 5.0 yards per dropback (30th), 3.3 per carry (29th). The Cowboys defense: 29th against the pass, 29th against the run.
The Cowboys: pass-leaning on early downs (3rd in pass rate over expected), 6.3 yards per dropback (18th), 3.5 per carry (27th). The Eagles defense: 19th against the pass, 12th against the run.
The Eagles engine: screens. 6.5% of their throws (21st most), 0.8 yards per attempt (32nd).
The Cowboys rank 3rd defending screens (2.9 yards per attempt allowed).
Where the Cowboys hit back:
- The Eagles are 7th worst defending play-action (9.1 yards per attempt). George Pickens sees the most of those targets.
- The Eagles are 11th worst defending screens (5.9 yards per attempt). CeeDee Lamb sees the most of those targets.
One check against real life:
Dallas Goedert caught 2 for 20. The sims: 6.0 for 64.
Dak Prescott threw for 354 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 246.
CeeDee Lamb caught 4 for 75. The sims: 5.6 for 70.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- At the half: Eagles 20, Cowboys 14
- Biggest leads: Eagles by 10, Cowboys by 0
- Q1: Tanner McKee to Makai Lemon, 34 yards for the longest score of the day
- Turnovers: Eagles 2
- 0 lead changes. Final: Eagles 26-21
How the Cowboys win (1,949 of the 5,000):
- Dak Prescott throws for 301+: then they win 56%
- No interceptions: 46%, vs 31% with one or more
- 136+ rushing yards: 74%
Across all 5,000 sims:
The Eagles win 60.6%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 36%.
Median score: Eagles 24, Cowboys 21
The Cowboys cover -4.5 in 29%
Over 43.5 in 61%
Typical lines:
- Tanner McKee: 224 passing yards
- Dak Prescott: 242 passing yards
- Dallas Goedert: 6.0 catches for 59 yards
- CeeDee Lamb: 5.6 catches for 65 yards
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Player projections
Median, with the 10th-90th percentile range.
| Player | Team | Role | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner McKee | PHI | QB | pass yds 224.5 (151-306) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 8 (0-26) |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RUSH/REC | rush yds 92 (47-149) · rec yds 15 (0-41) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Dameon Pierce | PHI | RUSH/REC | rush yds 32 (11-66) · rec yds 4 (0-21) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Elijah Moore | PHI | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-8) · rec yds 28 (6-64) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| Marquise Brown | PHI | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-5) · rec yds 37 (9-80) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | REC | rec yds 59 (24-108) · catches 6 (3-9) |
| Johnny Mundt | PHI | REC | rec yds 13 (0-41) · catches 2 (0-3) |
| Makai Lemon | PHI | REC | rec yds 11 (0-36) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Darius Cooper | PHI | REC | rec yds 15 (0-48) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Britain Covey | PHI | REC | rec yds 7 (0-30) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | pass yds 242 (163-332) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 11 (0-32) |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RUSH/REC | rush yds 53 (21-101) · rec yds 11 (0-32) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Emari Demercado | DAL | RUSH/REC | rush yds 14 (2-36) · rec yds 4 (0-23) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Tyler Goodson | DAL | RUSH | rush yds 5 (0-20) |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RUSH | rush yds 2 (0-14) |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | REC | rec yds 65 (26-120) · catches 5 (3-9) |
| George Pickens | DAL | REC | rec yds 58 (19-116) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | REC | rec yds 25 (5-57) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | REC | rec yds 22 (1-58) · catches 2 (1-5) |
| Jonathan Mingo | DAL | REC | rec yds 7 (0-32) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | REC | rec yds 7 (0-31) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | DAL | REC | rec yds 6 (0-28) · catches 1 (0-2) |