LA @ Los Angeles
Tip-off 7:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for LAL
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Los Angeles winning 56.4% of 5,000 games, against 76% from the books. The median score is Los Angeles 113, LA 110. In the most typical game: LA leads by as many as 11 in the first half; Los Angeles leads 60-58 at the break. Los Angeles's 10-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. Reaves puts Los Angeles ahead for good with 3:00 left in the 4th. Dončić finds Reaves 4 times. Garland finds Hachimura 3 times. Sexton goes 5 of 5 off Los Angeles's bench. Los Angeles leads by 6 at its high point in the 4th. LA pulls even late. Reaves scores last; final 113-110 Los Angeles.
LA wins 2,182 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 17+ threes (it wins 66%), wins the turnover battle (54%) or gets 32+ from Garland (56%). The matchup to watch is LA's ball security against Los Angeles's hands. Los Angeles covers -8.5 in 36% and the game goes over 228.5 in 39%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Feb 20), Los Angeles won in Los Angeles, 125-122.
Tonight LA is without Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller and Max Strus.
Los Angeles went 53-29 last season (6th best record in the NBA).
LA went 42-40 last season (18th best record in the NBA).
Los Angeles won the season series 2-2.
Austin Reaves missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Bronny James missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Derrick Jones Jr. missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Cam Christie missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Los Angeles: gone: LeBron James (now PHI), Deandre Ayton (now WAS), Rui Hachimura (now LAC), Marcus Smart (now HOU), Jaxson Hayes (now UTA); new: Walker Kessler (from UTA), Quentin Grimes (from PHI), Collin Sexton (from CHA), Ziaire Williams (from BKN), Sandro Mamukelashvili (from TOR), Matisse Thybulle (from POR), Jaden Hardy (from WAS), Kevon Looney (from NOP), Arthur Kaluma (no NBA minutes last season), AK Okereke (no NBA minutes last season).
LA: gone: Kawhi Leonard (now TOR), John Collins (now DET), James Harden (now CLE), Ivica Zubac (now IND); new: Darius Garland (from CLE), Rui Hachimura (from LAL), Keaton Wagler (no NBA minutes last season), Isaiah Jackson (from IND), Jalen Pickett (from DEN), Gradey Dick (from TOR), Baba Miller (no NBA minutes last season), Nick Martinelli (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
LAL: Dončić, Reaves, Kessler, Grimes, Williams
Bench: Mamukelashvili, Sexton, LaRavia, Vanderbilt, Thybulle, Hardy, Looney (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Carr, Thiero
Maybe: LaRavia (50% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Kaluma (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies), Okereke (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies)
LAC: Garland, Hachimura, Wagler, Dunn, Jones
Bench: Lopez, Sanders, Jackson, Pickett, Dick (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Beal, Ingram, J. Miller, Niederhäuser, Strus
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +7.0 points vs their usual FG% against Rui Hachimura and +2.6 against Darius Garland.
The stoppers on threes: Luka Dončić held shooters 4.7 points under their usual 3P%, Quentin Grimes held shooters 3.9 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Quentin Grimes sees Hachimura on 16% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: LA's ball security vs Los Angeles's hands.
LA turned it over on 13.8% of possessions last season (18th fewest).
Los Angeles forced turnovers on 13.9% (11th most), with 8.5 steals (14th) and 4.3 blocks (22nd) a game.
Shot diets.
Los Angeles: 39.4% of shots from three (22nd), 29.2% at the rim (20th).
LA: 40.4% of shots from three (19th), 29.6% at the rim (17th).
Los Angeles's defense: 17th fewest rim attempts allowed, 9th lowest opponent three-point % (35.2%).
LA's defense: 8th fewest rim attempts allowed, 22nd lowest opponent three-point % (36.4%).
Los Angeles's offense runs through Luka Dončić on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 10.8 a game last season, most in the NBA.
1.04 points per play (top 10%), turnover on 13% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Los Angeles's roll men scored 1.17 (7th in the league). Sandro Mamukelashvili alone: 1.02.
LA faced 17.6 of those a game (15th most) and ranked 7th defending them. Against the roll man: 17th.
In the sim: 1.19 Dončić-to-Reaves baskets a game (last season: 1.05).
With 8+ Dončić assists, Los Angeles wins 63.0%.
LA's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation. It ranked 5th, 3rd, 5th, 5th in points per play on them.
Los Angeles's defense ranked 6th, 8th, 8th, 12th against those same four.
Darius Garland in one split:
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.89 points per play (top 38%), 7.8 a game.
Spot-up shots: 1.08 points per play (top 39%), 3.1 a game.
Los Angeles's defense: 6th against spot-up shots, 8th against the pick-and-roll ball handler.
Where LA can hit back:
- Los Angeles was 30th defending the roll man. Brook Lopez ran 2.2 a game at 0.71 per play
- Los Angeles was 29th defending cuts. Isaiah Jackson ran 1.3 a game at 1.15 per play
One check against real life:
Luka Dončić scored 31.2 points in his 4 games against LA last season, 43 of them on Nov 25. In our 5,000 sims: 32.5.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- LA leads by as many as 11 in the first half; Los Angeles leads 60-58 at the break
- Los Angeles's 10-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- Reaves puts Los Angeles ahead for good with 3:00 left in the 4th
- Dončić finds Reaves 4 times
- Garland finds Hachimura 3 times
- Sexton goes 5 of 5 off Los Angeles's bench
- Los Angeles leads by 6 at its high point in the 4th. LA pulls even late. Reaves scores last; final 113-110 Los Angeles
How LA wins (2,182 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.5 a game in its wins, 13.2 in its losses. At 17 or more, it wins 66%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 54%
- Garland scores 32 or more: then it wins 56%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Los Angeles wins 56.4%. The books (Draft Kings) have Los Angeles at 76%, ESPN's model at 74%.
Median score: Los Angeles 113, LA 110
Los Angeles covers -8.5 in 36%
Over 228.5 in 39%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Walker Kessler pts+ast line 17.5, sim 10.0; Walker Kessler pts+reb line 26.5, sim 17.9; Walker Kessler points line 15.5, sim 8.6
Caution: tonight the sim sits 0.9 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Austin Reaves under 28.5 pts+ast (80%, sim avg 22.9)
- Brook Lopez under 17.5 pts+reb (78%, sim avg 13.6)
- Austin Reaves under 27.5 pts+reb (78%, sim avg 22.6)
- Brook Lopez under 12.5 points (76%, sim avg 9.4)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (LAC score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Kesslernew team | pts+ast | 17.5 | 10.0 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | pts+reb | 26.5 | 17.9 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | points | 15.5 | 8.6 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.6 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Keaton Waglernew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 6.4 | 88% | over 88% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | pts+reb | 7.5 | 4.1 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.3 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Isaiah Jacksonnew team | pts+reb | 15.5 | 10.9 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | points | 5.5 | 2.9 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Isaiah Jacksonnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 4.6 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Isaiah Jacksonnew team | points | 9.5 | 6.3 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Austin Reaves | pts+ast | 28.5 | 22.9 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Rui Hachimuranew team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 18.6 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Keaton Waglernew team | pts+reb | 16.5 | 22.0 | 79% | over 79% | |
| Brook Lopez | pts+reb | 17.5 | 13.6 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Austin Reaves | pts+reb | 27.5 | 22.6 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | rebounds | 11.5 | 9.3 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Brook Lopez | points | 12.5 | 9.4 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Rui Hachimuranew team | points | 17.5 | 13.8 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Keaton Waglernew team | pts+ast | 15.5 | 20.1 | 75% | over 75% | |
| Austin Reaves | points | 22.5 | 18.5 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Brook Lopez | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.3 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Austin Reaves | assists | 5.5 | 4.4 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | pts+reb | 13.5 | 11.0 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Kris Dunn | assists | 3.5 | 4.8 | 71% | over 71% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Darius Garlandnew team | threes | 2.5 | 3.5 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | threes | 0.5 | 1.2 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Ziaire Williamsnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Rui Hachimuranew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.0 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Keaton Waglernew team | points | 12.5 | 15.7 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Luka Dončić | assists | 7.5 | 6.5 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Keaton Waglernew team | assists | 3.5 | 4.5 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Rui Hachimuranew team | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.8 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Keaton Waglernew team | threes | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Collin Sextonnew team | points | 10.5 | 9.3 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Austin Reaves | threes | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Kris Dunn | threes | 0.5 | 1.0 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | points | 8.5 | 7.4 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.3 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Ziaire Williamsnew team | pts+reb | 10.5 | 9.6 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Luka Dončić | threes | 3.5 | 4.3 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Austin Reaves | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.1 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Brook Lopez | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Kris Dunn | pts+reb | 12.5 | 11.6 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | assists | 1.5 | 1.4 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.3 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Ziaire Williamsnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.3 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Luka Dončić | rebounds | 7.5 | 7.1 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Darius Garlandnew team | assists | 7.5 | 8.1 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Ziaire Williamsnew team | points | 7.5 | 7.3 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Kris Dunn | points | 7.5 | 7.3 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Kris Dunn | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.3 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Luka Dončić | pts+reb | 40.5 | 39.6 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Darius Garlandnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | points | 9.5 | 10.5 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | pts+reb | 14.5 | 15.4 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Darius Garlandnew team | pts+reb | 28.5 | 29.4 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Luka Dončić | pts+ast | 39.5 | 39.0 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | points | 10.5 | 11.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | pts+reb | 13.5 | 13.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Luka Dončić | points | 32.5 | 32.5 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Darius Garlandnew team | points | 25.5 | 26.0 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Darius Garlandnew team | pts+ast | 33.5 | 34.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Kris Dunn | pts+ast | 11.5 | 12.1 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | pts+ast | 12.5 | 12.7 | 49% | under 51% |