Atlanta @ Orlando
Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for ORL
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Orlando winning 57.7% of 5,000 games, against 54% from the books. The median score is Orlando 118, Atlanta 115. In the most typical game: Orlando leads by as many as 10 in the first half; Atlanta leads 66-65 at the break. Atlanta's 8-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing. Banchero puts Orlando ahead for good with 5:11 left in the 4th. Suggs finds W. Carter 3 times. Daniels finds Johnson 3 times. Vučević goes 6 of 7 off Orlando's bench. Orlando leads by 3 at its high point in the 4th. Atlanta pulls even late. Wagner scores last; final 118-115 Orlando.
Atlanta wins 2,116 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 16+ threes (it wins 62%), wins the turnover battle (55%) or gets 27+ from Johnson (53%). The matchup to watch is Orlando's ball security against Atlanta's hands. Orlando covers -2.5 in 52% and the game goes over 233.5 in 49%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Apr 1), Atlanta won in Orlando, 130-101.
Tonight Orlando is without Anthony Black.
Tonight Atlanta is without Mouhamed Gueye.
Orlando went 45-37 last season (13th best record in the NBA).
Atlanta went 46-36 last season (11th best record in the NBA).
Atlanta won the season series 4-0.
Jamal Cain missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
CJ McCollum missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Orlando: new: Nikola Vučević (from CHI).
Atlanta: gone: Zaccharie Risacher (now DAL), Vít Krejčí (now POR); new: Jalen Wilson (from BKN), Luguentz Dort (from OKC), Jock Landale (from MEM), Keshon Gilbert (from WAS), Kingston Flemings (rookie, #8 pick), Dorian Finney-Smith (from HOU).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
ORL: Banchero, Bane, Suggs, W. Carter, Wagner
Bench: Silva, Cain, Castleton, Bitadze, Vučević, J. Carter
Out: Black, Isaac, Nelson, Penda
ATL: Johnson, Alexander-Walker, Okongwu, McCollum, Daniels
Bench: Landale, Gilbert, Wilson, Flemings, Dort, Finney-Smith
Out: Gueye, Veesaar
No NBA history: Flemings (#8 pick, 14 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +6.1 points vs their usual FG% against Nickeil Alexander-Walker and +2.0 against Dyson Daniels.
The stoppers on threes: Desmond Bane held shooters 5.8 points under their usual 3P%, Jalen Johnson held shooters 2.7 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Desmond Bane sees Alexander-Walker on 33% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Orlando's ball security vs Atlanta's hands.
Orlando turned it over on 13.3% of possessions last season (12th fewest).
Atlanta forced turnovers on 14.6% (6th most), with 9.4 steals (5th) and 4.7 blocks (18th) a game.
Shot diets.
Orlando: 38.6% of shots from three (24th), 33.6% at the rim (6th).
Atlanta: 42.9% of shots from three (11th), 30.6% at the rim (13th).
Orlando's defense: 15th fewest rim attempts allowed, 11th lowest opponent three-point % (35.3%).
Atlanta's defense: 26th fewest rim attempts allowed, 12th lowest opponent three-point % (35.5%).
Orlando's offense runs through Desmond Bane on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 4.5 a game last season, 44th most in the NBA.
0.93 points per play (top 29%), turnover on 15% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Orlando's roll men scored 1.10 (16th in the league). Nikola Vučević alone: 1.11.
Atlanta faced 17.5 of those a game (16th most) and ranked 13th defending them. Against the roll man: 5th.
In the sim: 0.79 Bane-to-Banchero baskets a game (last season: 0.58).
With 5+ Bane assists, Orlando wins 61.0%.
Atlanta's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 7th, 16th, 24th, 20th in points per play on them.
Orlando's defense ranked 19th, 13th, 21st, 17th against those same four.
Jalen Johnson in one split:
Spot-up shots: 1.06 points per play (top 45%), 3.2 a game.
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.77 points per play (bottom 34%), 5.4 a game.
Orlando's defense: 21st against the pick-and-roll ball handler, 19th against spot-up shots.
Where Atlanta can hit back:
- Orlando was 26th defending post-ups. Jalen Johnson ran 1.1 a game at 1.05 per play
- Orlando was 22nd defending the roll man. Onyeka Okongwu ran 1.7 a game at 1.14 per play
One check against real life:
Desmond Bane scored 14.0 points in his 4 games against Atlanta last season, 18 of them on Mar 16. In our 5,000 sims: 19.3.
Jalen Johnson scored 17.8 points in his 4 games against Orlando last season, 24 of them on Mar 16. In our 5,000 sims: 21.9.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Orlando leads by as many as 10 in the first half; Atlanta leads 66-65 at the break
- Atlanta's 8-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing
- Banchero puts Orlando ahead for good with 5:11 left in the 4th
- Suggs finds W. Carter 3 times
- Daniels finds Johnson 3 times
- Vučević goes 6 of 7 off Orlando's bench
- Orlando leads by 3 at its high point in the 4th. Atlanta pulls even late. Wagner scores last; final 118-115 Orlando
How Atlanta wins (2,116 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 14.6 a game in its wins, 12.4 in its losses. At 16 or more, it wins 62%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 55%
- Johnson scores 27 or more: then it wins 53%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Orlando wins 57.7%. The books (Draft Kings) have Orlando at 54%, ESPN's model at 53%.
Median score: Orlando 118, Atlanta 115
Orlando covers -2.5 in 52%
Over 233.5 in 49%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Luguentz Dort pts+reb line 8.5, sim 5.3; Luguentz Dort threes line 1.5, sim 0.8; Nikola Vučević pts+reb line 13.5, sim 9.8
- Tristan da Silva under 2.5 threes (94%, sim avg 0.9)
- Franz Wagner under 5.5 assists (90%, sim avg 3.2)
- Tristan da Silva under 11.5 pts+ast (86%, sim avg 7.3)
- Tristan da Silva under 12.5 pts+reb (83%, sim avg 8.7)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (ATL score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan da Silva | threes | 2.5 | 0.9 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Franz Wagner | assists | 5.5 | 3.2 | 10% | under 90% | |
| Tristan da Silva | pts+ast | 11.5 | 7.3 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Luguentz Dortnew team | pts+reb | 8.5 | 5.3 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Tristan da Silva | pts+reb | 12.5 | 8.7 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Luguentz Dortnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.8 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Tristan da Silva | points | 9.5 | 6.1 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Nikola Vučevićnew team | pts+reb | 13.5 | 9.8 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Franz Wagner | pts+ast | 26.5 | 21.2 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Nikola Vučevićnew team | pts+ast | 10.5 | 7.7 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Luguentz Dortnew team | points | 5.5 | 3.4 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Franz Wagner | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.1 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Jalen Johnson | assists | 7.5 | 6.0 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Franz Wagner | pts+reb | 26.5 | 22.1 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Nikola Vučevićnew team | points | 8.5 | 6.2 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Tristan da Silva | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.6 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Franz Wagner | points | 21.5 | 18.0 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Luguentz Dortnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.9 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Jalen Johnson | rebounds | 10.5 | 9.0 | 28% | under 72% | |
| CJ McCollum | points | 16.5 | 20.6 | 71% | over 71% | |
| Dyson Daniels | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.4 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Nikola Vučevićnew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.7 | 31% | under 69% | |
| CJ McCollum | pts+ast | 20.5 | 24.2 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Jock Landalenew team | points | 6.5 | 8.9 | 68% | over 68% | |
| CJ McCollum | pts+reb | 20.5 | 23.9 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Tristan da Silva | assists | 1.5 | 1.2 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Dyson Daniels | pts+reb | 17.5 | 15.7 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Paolo Banchero | rebounds | 8.5 | 7.6 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Jock Landalenew team | pts+ast | 8.5 | 10.4 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Dyson Daniels | assists | 5.5 | 4.9 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Jock Landalenew team | pts+reb | 11.5 | 13.3 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Franz Wagner | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Desmond Bane | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.1 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Jalen Suggs | pts+reb | 16.5 | 18.7 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Paolo Banchero | pts+ast | 27.5 | 29.7 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | assists | 1.5 | 2.0 | 60% | over 60% | |
| CJ McCollum | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Paolo Banchero | points | 22.5 | 24.5 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Jalen Suggs | assists | 4.5 | 5.2 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Desmond Bane | points | 17.5 | 19.3 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Dyson Daniels | threes | 0.5 | 0.5 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Paolo Banchero | assists | 5.5 | 5.2 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Desmond Bane | threes | 2.5 | 2.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | threes | 2.5 | 3.0 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | points | 10.5 | 9.9 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | pts+reb | 17.5 | 16.8 | 42% | under 57% | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | threes | 0.5 | 0.8 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Desmond Bane | pts+ast | 21.5 | 23.0 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | assists | 3.5 | 3.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Jock Landalenew team | threes | 0.5 | 0.8 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Jalen Suggs | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.0 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Jalen Suggs | threes | 2.5 | 2.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | pts+reb | 22.5 | 21.7 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jalen Johnson | pts+ast | 28.5 | 27.8 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Nikola Vučevićnew team | assists | 1.5 | 1.5 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | pts+ast | 22.5 | 21.7 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jalen Suggs | pts+ast | 18.5 | 19.9 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Jalen Johnson | pts+reb | 31.5 | 30.8 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jalen Johnson | points | 20.5 | 21.9 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Dyson Daniels | points | 10.5 | 10.3 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Jalen Suggs | points | 13.5 | 14.7 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Jock Landalenew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Dyson Daniels | pts+ast | 15.5 | 15.2 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | rebounds | 7.5 | 7.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Jock Landalenew team | assists | 1.5 | 1.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | pts+reb | 21.5 | 21.1 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | rebounds | 6.5 | 6.9 | 54% | over 54% | |
| CJ McCollum | threes | 2.5 | 2.8 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | pts+ast | 15.5 | 16.3 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Desmond Bane | pts+reb | 22.5 | 23.3 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | points | 18.5 | 18.4 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | assists | 2.5 | 2.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Desmond Bane | assists | 3.5 | 3.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Paolo Banchero | pts+reb | 31.5 | 32.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Jalen Johnson | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | points | 13.5 | 13.7 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | pts+ast | 11.5 | 12.0 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Paolo Banchero | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 49% | under 51% | |
| CJ McCollum | assists | 3.5 | 3.6 | 50% | under 50% |