Toronto @ Washington

Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for TOR

Sim

79%

Books

66%

ESPN model

64%

Median score

124-112

TOR - WAS

TOR -5.5

68%

sim cover rate

Total 236.5

48%

over · sim avg 236

Moneyline

+185

WAS · TOR -225

NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details

How the sim saw it

The sim has Toronto winning 78.8% of 5,000 games, against 66% from the books. The median score is Washington 112, Toronto 124. In the most typical game: Washington leads by as many as 6 in the first half; Toronto leads 62-57 at the break. Toronto's 9-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. Leonard puts Toronto ahead for good with 5:07 left in the 3rd. Poeltl finds Barnes 3 times. Champagnie goes 5 of 6 off Washington's bench. Toronto leads by 21 at its high point in the 4th. Washington gets within 7. Leonard scores last; final 124-112 Toronto.

Washington wins 1,061 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 13+ threes (it wins 34%), wins the turnover battle (41%) or gets 24+ from Davis (29%). The matchup to watch is Toronto's ball security against Washington's hands. Toronto covers -5.5 in 68% and the game goes over 236.5 in 48%.

Full breakdown

Last time they met (Feb 28), Toronto won in Washington, 134-125.
Tonight Washington is without Jamir Watkins.
Washington went 17-65 last season (30th best record in the NBA).
Toronto went 46-36 last season (11th best record in the NBA).
Toronto won the season series 2-1.
Alex Sarr missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Collin Murray-Boyles missed 3 of the 3 meetings.
Washington: new: Anthony Davis (from DAL), Trae Young (from ATL), Deandre Ayton (from LAL), Reece Beekman (no NBA minutes last season), Tre Mann (from CHA), Felix Okpara (rookie, #46 pick).
Toronto: gone: Brandon Ingram (now LAC), Sandro Mamukelashvili (now LAL); new: Kawhi Leonard (from LAC), Malachi Smith (from BKN), Allen Graves (no NBA minutes last season), Kyle Anderson (from UTA), Trayce Jackson-Davis (from GSW), Jaden Bradley (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
WAS: Davis, George, Young, Carrington, Sarr
Bench: Coulibaly, Ayton, Johnson, Riley, Middleton, Champagnie, Gill (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Dybantsa, Vukčević, Watkins
Maybe: Okpara (50% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Okpara (#46 pick, 4 min from past rookies)
TOR: Barnes, Quickley, Leonard, Barrett, Poeltl
Bench: Smith, Shead, Murray-Boyles, Walter, Graves, Anderson (+4 under 8 min)
Out: Bittle
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +7.6 points vs their usual FG% against Bub Carrington and +5.9 against Kawhi Leonard.
The stoppers on threes: Bilal Coulibaly held shooters 1.7 points under their usual 3P%, RJ Barrett held shooters 0.8 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Immanuel Quickley sees Carrington on 15% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Toronto's ball security vs Washington's hands.
Toronto turned it over on 12.8% of possessions last season (7th fewest).
Washington forced turnovers on 12.6% (22nd most), with 8.0 steals (21st) and 5.5 blocks (5th) a game.
Shot diets.
Washington: 40.3% of shots from three (20th), 29.2% at the rim (18th).
Toronto: 36.3% of shots from three (25th), 31.5% at the rim (9th).
Washington's defense: 30th fewest rim attempts allowed, 24th lowest opponent three-point % (36.8%).
Toronto's defense: 20th fewest rim attempts allowed, 4th lowest opponent three-point % (34.9%).
Toronto's offense runs through Kawhi Leonard on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 5.9 a game last season, 24th most in the NBA.
1.10 points per play (top 6%), turnover on 12% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Toronto's roll men scored 1.17 (6th in the league). Jakob Poeltl alone: 1.31.
Washington faced 17.1 of those a game (19th most) and ranked 27th defending them. Against the roll man: 6th.
In the sim: 0.51 Leonard-to-Barrett baskets a game.
With 4+ Leonard assists, Toronto wins 81.7%.
Washington's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, the roll man. It ranked 30th, 30th, 6th, 11th in points per play on them.
Toronto's defense ranked 13th, 17th, 21st, 12th against those same four.
Where Washington can hit back:
- Toronto was 28th defending cuts. Deandre Ayton ran 2.8 a game at 1.41 per play
- Toronto was 21st defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. Kyshawn George ran 4.4 a game at 0.84 per play
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Washington leads by as many as 6 in the first half; Toronto leads 62-57 at the break
- Toronto's 9-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- Leonard puts Toronto ahead for good with 5:07 left in the 3rd
- Poeltl finds Barnes 3 times
- Champagnie goes 5 of 6 off Washington's bench
- Toronto leads by 21 at its high point in the 4th. Washington gets within 7. Leonard scores last; final 124-112 Toronto
How Washington wins (1,061 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 12.5 a game in its wins, 10.5 in its losses. At 13 or more, it wins 34%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 41%
- Davis scores 24 or more: then it wins 29%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Toronto wins 78.8%. The books (Draft Kings) have Toronto at 66%, ESPN's model at 64%.
Median score: Washington 112, Toronto 124
Toronto covers -5.5 in 68%
Over 236.5 in 48%
Leans:
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.

Most typical game, play by play (TOR score first)

Quarter 1

Q1WASKyshawn George scores three (assist Alex Sarr)0-3

Q1TORRJ Barrett goes to the line, makes 1 of 21-3

Q1WASTrae Young goes to the line, makes 2 of 21-5

Q1TORJamal Shead scores at the rim (assist Scottie Barnes)3-5

Q1WASBub Carrington misses three3-5

Q1TORKawhi Leonard scores in the paint5-5

Q1WASKhris Middleton misses from midrange5-5

Q1TORScottie Barnes misses in the paint5-5

Q1WASTrae Young misses three5-5

Q1TORImmanuel Quickley scores in the paint (assist Malachi Smith)7-5

Q1WASTre Johnson scores in the paint (assist Bub Carrington)7-7

Q1TORScottie Barnes scores at the rim (assist Jakob Poeltl)9-7

Q1WASTre Johnson misses from midrange9-7

Q1TORJaden Bradley scores three (assist RJ Barrett)12-7

Q1WASKyshawn George scores at the rim (assist Trae Young)12-9

Q1TORKawhi Leonard turns it over12-9

Q1WASWill Riley misses corner three12-9

Q1TORScottie Barnes turns it over12-9

Q1WASBilal Coulibaly scores at the rim (assist Trae Young)12-11

Q1TORRJ Barrett scores at the rim14-11

Q1WASWill Riley misses in the paint14-11

Q1TORRJ Barrett scores in the paint (assist Collin Murray-Boyles)16-11

Q1WASTrae Young scores three (assist Bub Carrington)16-14

Q1TORKawhi Leonard misses at the rim16-14

Q1WASBilal Coulibaly misses in the paint16-14

Q1TORMalachi Smith misses corner three16-14

Q1WASBilal Coulibaly misses three16-14

Q1TORRJ Barrett misses three16-14

Q1WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim (assist Bub Carrington)16-16

Q1TORRJ Barrett scores at the rim (assist Jamal Shead)18-16

Q1WASTre Johnson scores three (assist Alex Sarr)18-19

Q1TORRJ Barrett goes to the line, makes 1 of 219-19

Q1WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim19-21

Q1TORRJ Barrett scores in the paint (assist Immanuel Quickley)21-21

Q1WASDeandre Ayton goes to the line, makes 0 of 221-21

Q1WASTrae Young turns it over21-21

Q1TORScottie Barnes scores in the paint (assist Jakob Poeltl)23-21

Q1WASTre Johnson misses three, offensive rebound23-21

Q1WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim (assist Trae Young)23-23

Q1TORKawhi Leonard misses in the paint23-23

Q1WASAnthony Davis goes to the line, makes 1 of 223-24

Q1TORKawhi Leonard turns it over23-24

Q1WASJustin Champagnie scores corner three (assist Will Riley)23-27

Q1TORJakob Poeltl goes to the line, makes 1 of 224-27

Q1WASDeandre Ayton misses at the rim, offensive rebound24-27

Q1WASWill Riley goes to the line, makes 1 of 224-28

Q1TORScottie Barnes misses in the paint24-28

Q1WASJustin Champagnie scores in the paint (assist Alex Sarr)24-30

Q1TORJamal Shead misses corner three24-30

Q1WASBilal Coulibaly misses three, offensive rebound24-30

Q1WASTrae Young turns it over24-30

Q1TORScottie Barnes scores at the rim (assist Jakob Poeltl)26-30

Q1WASKhris Middleton misses three26-30

Q1TORKawhi Leonard misses in the paint26-30

Q1WASKyshawn George scores at the rim26-32

Q1TORJamal Shead misses corner three26-32

Quarter 2

Q2WASKyshawn George misses at the rim26-32

Q2TORTrayce Jackson-Davis scores at the rim (assist Malachi Smith)28-32

Q2WASAlex Sarr turns it over28-32

Q2TORCollin Murray-Boyles turns it over28-32

Q2WASAnthony Davis scores in the paint (assist Kyshawn George)28-34

Q2TORKawhi Leonard misses three28-34

Q2WASAnthony Davis misses in the paint28-34

Q2TORRJ Barrett misses in the paint28-34

Q2WASTrae Young turns it over28-34

Q2TORRJ Barrett scores corner three (assist Immanuel Quickley)31-34

Q2WASAlex Sarr misses in the paint31-34

Q2TORAlijah Martin scores in the paint (assist Malachi Smith)33-34

Q2WASTre Mann scores in the paint (assist Trae Young)33-36

Q2TORImmanuel Quickley scores three (assist Collin Murray-Boyles)36-36

Q2WASWill Riley scores at the rim (assist Anthony Davis)36-38

Q2TORJa'Kobe Walter misses in the paint36-38

Q2WASKyshawn George turns it over36-38

Q2TORImmanuel Quickley goes to the line, makes 2 of 238-38

Q2WASAnthony Davis misses from midrange, offensive rebound38-38

Q2WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim38-40

Q2TORScottie Barnes scores at the rim (assist Immanuel Quickley)40-40

Q2WASTre Johnson scores three (assist Anthony Davis)40-43

Q2TORKawhi Leonard scores from midrange42-43

Q2WASAnthony Davis misses in the paint, offensive rebound42-43

Q2WASWill Riley misses in the paint42-43

Q2TORRJ Barrett misses three42-43

Q2WASDeandre Ayton scores at the rim42-45

Q2TORScottie Barnes scores in the paint44-45

Q2WASAlex Sarr scores at the rim (assist Trae Young)44-47

Q2TORImmanuel Quickley scores at the rim46-47

Q2WASKyshawn George misses three, offensive rebound46-47

Q2WASDeandre Ayton turns it over46-47

Q2TORRJ Barrett scores at the rim (assist Jamal Shead)48-47

Q2WASFelix Okpara scores in the paint48-49

Q2TORRJ Barrett misses three, offensive rebound48-49

Q2TORKawhi Leonard misses three48-49

Q2WASJustin Champagnie misses three48-49

Q2TORMalachi Smith scores in the paint50-49

Q2WASKyshawn George turns it over50-49

Q2TORRJ Barrett misses in the paint, offensive rebound50-49

Q2TORScottie Barnes misses in the paint, offensive rebound50-49

Q2TORScottie Barnes scores three (assist Kawhi Leonard)53-49

Q2WASAlex Sarr scores at the rim53-51

Q2TORImmanuel Quickley scores in the paint55-51

Q2WASAnthony Gill scores at the rim (assist Justin Champagnie)55-53

Q2TORKawhi Leonard misses three55-53

Q2WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim (assist Trae Young)55-55

Q2TORAllen Graves scores at the rim57-55

Q2WASJustin Champagnie scores at the rim (assist Tre Johnson)57-57

Q2TORScottie Barnes misses at the rim, offensive rebound57-57

Q2TORImmanuel Quickley misses in the paint57-57

Q2WASTre Johnson misses in the paint57-57

Q2TORJamal Shead misses three57-57

Q2WASReece Beekman misses corner three57-57

Q2TORRJ Barrett scores three (assist Kyle Anderson)60-57

Q2WASTre Johnson turns it over60-57

Q2TORKawhi Leonard scores in the paint62-57

Quarter 3

Q3WASWill Riley turns it over62-57

Q3TORKawhi Leonard scores in the paint64-57

Q3WASWill Riley misses three64-57

Q3TORJamison Battle scores at the rim (assist Malachi Smith)66-57

Q3WASKyshawn George misses in the paint66-57

Q3TORAlijah Martin turns it over66-57

Q3WASKhris Middleton misses in the paint, offensive rebound66-57

Q3WASReece Beekman scores at the rim (assist Bub Carrington)66-59

Q3TORImmanuel Quickley scores corner three (assist Malachi Smith)69-59

Q3WASJustin Champagnie scores three (assist Khris Middleton)69-62

Q3TORRJ Barrett scores at the rim (assist Immanuel Quickley)71-62

Q3WASAlex Sarr goes to the line, makes 0 of 271-62

Q3TORRJ Barrett misses at the rim71-62

Q3WASAnthony Davis misses in the paint71-62

Q3TORKawhi Leonard misses three71-62

Q3WASDeandre Ayton misses in the paint71-62

Q3TORJamal Shead misses in the paint71-62

Q3WASAlex Sarr scores at the rim71-64

Q3TORImmanuel Quickley misses in the paint71-64

Q3WASWill Riley scores in the paint71-66

Q3TORRJ Barrett scores at the rim (assist Jakob Poeltl)73-66

Q3WASTrae Young scores three73-69

Q3TORAlijah Martin misses three73-69

Q3WASAnthony Davis misses in the paint, offensive rebound73-69

Q3WASTrae Young scores in the paint (assist Bub Carrington)73-71

Q3TORJakob Poeltl misses in the paint73-71

Q3WASAlex Sarr misses three, offensive rebound73-71

Q3WASKyshawn George scores in the paint73-73

Q3TORAllen Graves goes to the line, makes 2 of 275-73

Q3WASAlex Sarr scores at the rim75-75

Q3TORScottie Barnes misses in the paint75-75

Q3WASDeandre Ayton misses in the paint75-75

Q3TORKawhi Leonard scores in the paint77-75

Q3WASKyshawn George misses in the paint77-75

Q3TORJakob Poeltl scores at the rim (assist Jamal Shead)79-75

Q3WASAlex Sarr goes to the line, makes 2 of 279-77

Q3TORScottie Barnes misses in the paint, offensive rebound79-77

Q3TORRJ Barrett goes to the line, makes 1 of 280-77

Q3WASTre Johnson misses at the rim80-77

Q3TORJa'Kobe Walter goes to the line, makes 2 of 282-77

Q3WASAlex Sarr misses at the rim82-77

Q3TORKawhi Leonard misses three82-77

Q3WASDeandre Ayton misses from midrange82-77

Q3TORCollin Murray-Boyles goes to the line, makes 2 of 284-77

Q3WASAnthony Davis misses in the paint84-77

Q3TORCollin Murray-Boyles scores at the rim (assist Immanuel Quickley)86-77

Q3WASTre Johnson misses corner three86-77

Q3TORKyle Anderson scores in the paint (assist Allen Graves)88-77

Q3WASDeandre Ayton scores from midrange (assist Anthony Davis)88-79

Q3TORKawhi Leonard misses at the rim88-79

Q3WASTre Johnson goes to the line, makes 2 of 288-81

Q3TORImmanuel Quickley scores at the rim (assist RJ Barrett)90-81

Q3WASAnthony Davis turns it over90-81

Q3TORRJ Barrett misses in the paint, offensive rebound90-81

Q3TORJamal Shead scores at the rim (assist RJ Barrett)92-81

Quarter 4

Q4WASBilal Coulibaly turns it over92-81

Q4TORRJ Barrett scores three (assist Jamison Battle)95-81

Q4WASAlex Sarr misses three95-81

Q4TORRJ Barrett scores at the rim (assist Jakob Poeltl)97-81

Q4WASDeandre Ayton goes to the line, makes 2 of 297-83

Q4TORJa'Kobe Walter goes to the line, makes 1 of 298-83

Q4WASAnthony Davis misses three98-83

Q4TORRJ Barrett scores in the paint100-83

Q4WASReece Beekman misses in the paint100-83

Q4TORKawhi Leonard scores in the paint102-83

Q4WASAlex Sarr scores at the rim (assist Trae Young)102-85

Q4TORMalachi Smith misses three102-85

Q4WASAlex Sarr goes to the line, makes 2 of 2102-87

Q4TORKawhi Leonard misses three102-87

Q4WASKyshawn George scores three (assist Trae Young)102-90

Q4TORImmanuel Quickley misses three102-90

Q4WASBilal Coulibaly scores at the rim (assist Anthony Davis)102-92

Q4TORAllen Graves scores three (assist Kyle Anderson)105-92

Q4WASTrae Young misses three105-92

Q4TORJakob Poeltl scores at the rim107-92

Q4WASAlex Sarr turns it over107-92

Q4TORJa'Kobe Walter misses three107-92

Q4WASAlex Sarr misses at the rim, offensive rebound107-92

Q4WASDeandre Ayton scores at the rim (assist Bub Carrington)107-94

Q4TORRJ Barrett scores at the rim (assist Jamal Shead)109-94

Q4WASTrae Young turns it over109-94

Q4TORJa'Kobe Walter scores three (assist Malachi Smith)112-94

Q4WASKyshawn George misses three112-94

Q4TORJa'Kobe Walter scores corner three (assist Kyle Anderson)115-94

Q4WASAnthony Davis misses three115-94

Q4TORKawhi Leonard turns it over115-94

Q4WASJustin Champagnie scores at the rim (assist Kyshawn George)115-96

Q4TORAllen Graves misses three115-96

Q4WASKyshawn George scores at the rim115-98

Q4TORJamison Battle misses at the rim115-98

Q4WASAnthony Davis goes to the line, makes 2 of 2115-100

Q4TORKawhi Leonard scores at the rim117-100

Q4WASAnthony Davis scores corner three (assist Kyshawn George)117-103

Q4TORScottie Barnes misses in the paint117-103

Q4WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim (assist Bub Carrington)117-105

Q4TORRJ Barrett misses in the paint117-105

Q4WASTrae Young misses in the paint, offensive rebound117-105

Q4WASTre Johnson scores three (assist Trae Young)117-108

Q4TORScottie Barnes scores at the rim119-108

Q4WASBilal Coulibaly scores in the paint119-110

Q4TORImmanuel Quickley goes to the line, makes 0 of 2119-110

Q4WASTrae Young misses in the paint119-110

Q4TORImmanuel Quickley misses in the paint119-110

Q4WASWill Riley scores at the rim (assist Trae Young)119-112

Q4TORAlijah Martin scores three (assist Scottie Barnes)122-112

Q4WASBilal Coulibaly misses corner three122-112

Q4TORKawhi Leonard scores in the paint124-112

Top 10 prop ideas

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All player props

Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.

Player	Market	Line	Sim avg	Sim over	Lean	Sim + you