Miami @ Charlotte
Tip-off 3:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for CHA
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Charlotte winning 56.5% of 5,000 games, against 44% from the books. The median score is Charlotte 120, Miami 118. In the most typical game: Miami leads by as many as 14 in the first half; Charlotte leads 65-59 at the break. Charlotte's 14-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. James puts Charlotte ahead for good with 6:14 left in the 2nd. Mitchell finds Larsson 3 times. Schröder goes 4 of 10 off Charlotte's bench. Charlotte leads by 20 at its high point in the 4th. Miami gets within 3. Antetokounmpo scores last; final 120-117 Charlotte.
Miami wins 2,177 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 16+ threes (it wins 67%), wins the turnover battle (51%) or gets 32+ from Antetokounmpo (52%). The matchup to watch is Miami's ball security against Charlotte's hands. Miami covers -3.5 in 36% and the game goes over 229.5 in 65%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Mar 17), Charlotte won in Charlotte, 136-106.
Tonight Charlotte is without Kon Knueppel, Coby White and Grant Williams.
Charlotte went 44-38 last season (16th best record in the NBA).
Miami went 43-39 last season (17th best record in the NBA).
Miami won the season series 3-1.
Brandon Miller missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Bam Adebayo missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Andrew Wiggins missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Nikola Jović missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Charlotte: gone: Miles Bridges (now PHX), LaMelo Ball (now MIN), Collin Sexton (now LAL); new: Grayson Allen (from PHX), Naz Reid (from MIN), Royce O'Neale (from PHX), Dennis Schröder (from SAC), Christian Anderson (no NBA minutes last season), Hannes Steinbach (no NBA minutes last season), Michael Ajayi (no NBA minutes last season).
Miami: gone: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (now MIL), Norman Powell (now CHI), Kel'el Ware (now MIL); new: Giannis Antetokounmpo (from MIL), Tim Hardaway Jr. (from DEN), Bobby Portis Jr. (from MIL), Klay Thompson (from DAL), Nick Richards (from CHI), Tre Donaldson (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
CHA: Miller, Allen, Reid, Diabaté, O'Neale
Bench: Schröder, James, Kalkbrenner, Salaün, Anderson (+4 under 8 min)
Out: Boswell, Knueppel, White, Williams
No NBA history: Ajayi (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies)
MIA: Adebayo, Mitchell, Wiggins, Antetokounmpo, Larsson
Bench: Hardaway, Portis, Thompson, Jović, Smith, Fontecchio (+4 under 8 min)
No NBA history: Donaldson (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +4.4 points vs their usual FG% against Dennis Schröder and +2.7 against Royce O'Neale.
The stoppers on threes: Davion Mitchell held shooters 1.4 points under their usual 3P%, Sion James held shooters 0.5 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Klay Thompson sees Schröder on 28% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Miami's ball security vs Charlotte's hands.
Miami turned it over on 12.4% of possessions last season (5th fewest).
Charlotte forced turnovers on 12.3% (24th most), with 7.0 steals (29th) and 4.5 blocks (21st) a game.
Shot diets.
Charlotte: 48.7% of shots from three (2nd), 27.8% at the rim (24th).
Miami: 40.6% of shots from three (18th), 31.0% at the rim (12th).
Charlotte's defense: 19th fewest rim attempts allowed, 18th lowest opponent three-point % (35.9%).
Miami's defense: 12th fewest rim attempts allowed, 17th lowest opponent three-point % (35.9%).
Charlotte's offense runs through Brandon Miller on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 5.0 a game last season, 31st most in the NBA.
0.93 points per play (top 29%), turnover on 18% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Charlotte's roll men scored 1.19 (4th in the league). Brandon Miller alone: 1.09.
Miami faced 17.2 of those a game (17th most) and ranked 23rd defending them. Against the roll man: 9th.
In the sim: 0.69 Miller-to-Reid baskets a game.
With 5+ Miller assists, Charlotte wins 63.0%.
Miami's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, isolation, putbacks. It ranked 15th, 23rd, 9th, 16th in points per play on them.
Charlotte's defense ranked 8th, 9th, 19th, 10th against those same four.
Giannis Antetokounmpo in one split:
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.97 points per play (top 22%), 2.1 a game.
Transition: 1.27 points per play (top 22%), 6.3 a game.
Charlotte's defense: 9th against transition, 24th against the pick-and-roll ball handler.
Where Miami can hit back:
- Charlotte was 24th defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. Giannis Antetokounmpo ran 2.1 a game at 0.97 per play
- Charlotte was 19th defending isolation. Giannis Antetokounmpo ran 2.9 a game at 0.96 per play
One check against real life:
Brandon Miller scored 19.0 points in his 2 games against Miami last season, 22 of them on Mar 6. In our 5,000 sims: 25.7.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Miami leads by as many as 14 in the first half; Charlotte leads 65-59 at the break
- Charlotte's 14-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- James puts Charlotte ahead for good with 6:14 left in the 2nd
- Mitchell finds Larsson 3 times
- Schröder goes 4 of 10 off Charlotte's bench
- Charlotte leads by 20 at its high point in the 4th. Miami gets within 3. Antetokounmpo scores last; final 120-117 Charlotte
How Miami wins (2,177 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 14.0 a game in its wins, 11.8 in its losses. At 16 or more, it wins 67%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 51%
- Antetokounmpo scores 32 or more: then it wins 52%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Charlotte wins 56.5%. The books (Draft Kings) have Charlotte at 44%, ESPN's model at 44%.
Median score: Charlotte 120, Miami 118
Miami covers -3.5 in 36%
Over 229.5 in 65%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Giannis Antetokounmpo rebounds line 10.5, sim 8.3; Dennis Schröder rebounds line 3.5, sim 2.4; Dennis Schröder pts+reb line 17.5, sim 14.0
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.1 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Moussa Diabaté under 19.5 pts+reb (80%, sim avg 15.5)
- Davion Mitchell under 13.5 pts+reb (79%, sim avg 10.1)
- Sion James under 11.5 pts+reb (77%, sim avg 8.7)
- Sion James under 7.5 points (74%, sim avg 5.3)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (MIA score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sat Oct 24, 9:17 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moussa Diabaté | under 19.5 pts+reb | 80% | -124 | 9 ✓ |
| Davion Mitchell | under 13.5 pts+reb | 79% | -129 | 23 ✗ |
| Sion James | under 11.5 pts+reb | 77% | -118 | 5 ✓ |
| Sion James | under 7.5 points | 74% | -115 | 0 ✓ |
| Bam Adebayo | under 9.5 rebounds | 73% | -121 | 8 ✓ |
| Moussa Diabaté | under 9.5 rebounds | 72% | -118 | 5 ✓ |
| Davion Mitchell | under 1.5 threes | 72% | -182 | 3 ✗ |
| Sion James | under 1.5 threes | 72% | -150 | 0 ✓ |
| Davion Mitchell | under 16.5 pts+ast | 71% | -120 | 32 ✗ |
| Moussa Diabaté | under 9.5 points | 70% | -117 | 4 ✓ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moussa Diabaté | pts+reb | 19.5 | 15.5 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | rebounds | 10.5 | 8.3 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Davion Mitchell | pts+reb | 13.5 | 10.1 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.4 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Sion James | pts+reb | 11.5 | 8.7 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | pts+reb | 17.5 | 14.0 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | rebounds | 7.5 | 6.0 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | pts+ast | 20.5 | 17.2 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | points | 14.5 | 11.5 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Sion James | points | 7.5 | 5.3 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | assists | 3.5 | 2.6 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Bam Adebayo | rebounds | 9.5 | 7.9 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Moussa Diabaté | rebounds | 9.5 | 7.9 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Davion Mitchell | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Sion James | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | pts+reb | 38.5 | 34.4 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Davion Mitchell | pts+ast | 16.5 | 14.1 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Moussa Diabaté | points | 9.5 | 7.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | assists | 6.5 | 5.4 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Davion Mitchell | points | 9.5 | 7.8 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | pts+reb | 25.5 | 22.5 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Brandon Miller | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.7 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | pts+ast | 34.5 | 31.5 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Sion James | pts+ast | 9.5 | 8.1 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Klay Thompsonnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.1 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.9 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | assists | 6.5 | 5.7 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Klay Thompsonnew team | points | 10.5 | 8.9 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Brandon Miller | points | 22.5 | 25.7 | 65% | over 65% | |
| Brandon Miller | pts+ast | 26.5 | 29.4 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Brandon Miller | threes | 3.5 | 4.3 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Bam Adebayo | pts+reb | 26.5 | 24.9 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | pts+ast | 20.5 | 19.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | points | 27.5 | 26.1 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Bam Adebayo | assists | 3.5 | 3.3 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | points | 17.5 | 16.5 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Davion Mitchell | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.4 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Bam Adebayo | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Brandon Miller | pts+reb | 28.5 | 30.4 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Sion James | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.3 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | pts+reb | 17.5 | 16.9 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | points | 13.5 | 13.1 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Bam Adebayo | points | 17.5 | 17.0 | 44% | under 55% | |
| Davion Mitchell | assists | 6.5 | 6.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Bam Adebayo | pts+ast | 20.5 | 20.3 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Sion James | assists | 2.5 | 2.7 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Brandon Miller | assists | 3.5 | 3.7 | 51% | over 51% |