Washington @ Charlotte
Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for CHA
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Charlotte winning 80.4% of 5,000 games, against 54% from the books. The median score is Charlotte 123, Washington 111. In the most typical game: Charlotte leads by as many as 11 in the first half; Charlotte leads 58-53 at the break. Charlotte's 11-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing. Reid puts Charlotte ahead for good with 4:48 left in the 2nd. Johnson goes 6 of 9 off Washington's bench. Charlotte leads by 22 at its high point in the 4th. Washington gets within 11. Allen scores last; final 124-110 Charlotte.
Washington wins 980 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 14+ threes (it wins 36%), wins the turnover battle (27%) or gets 25+ from Davis (26%). The matchup to watch is Charlotte's ball security against Washington's hands. Charlotte covers -1.5 in 78% and the game goes over 227.5 in 62%.
Full breakdown
A year ago tonight, Charlotte won in Washington, 139-113.
Last time they met (Feb 22), Charlotte won in Washington, 129-112.
Tonight Charlotte is without Kon Knueppel, Coby White and Grant Williams.
Tonight Washington is without Jamir Watkins.
Charlotte went 44-38 last season (16th best record in the NBA).
Washington went 17-65 last season (30th best record in the NBA).
Charlotte won the season series 4-0.
Bilal Coulibaly missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Charlotte: gone: Miles Bridges (now PHX), LaMelo Ball (now MIN), Collin Sexton (now LAL); new: Grayson Allen (from PHX), Naz Reid (from MIN), Dennis Schröder (from SAC), Royce O'Neale (from PHX), Hannes Steinbach (no NBA minutes last season), Christian Anderson (no NBA minutes last season), Michael Ajayi (no NBA minutes last season).
Washington: new: Anthony Davis (from DAL), Trae Young (from ATL), Deandre Ayton (from LAL), Reece Beekman (no NBA minutes last season), Tre Mann (from CHA), Felix Okpara (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
CHA: Miller, Allen, Reid, Schröder, Diabaté
Bench: O'Neale, James, Kalkbrenner, Salaün (+5 under 8 min)
Out: Boswell, Knueppel, White, Williams
No NBA history: Ajayi (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies)
WAS: Davis, George, Young, Coulibaly, Sarr
Bench: Carrington, Ayton, Johnson, Champagnie, Middleton, Riley, Gill (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Dybantsa, Vukčević, Watkins
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +4.4 points vs their usual FG% against Dennis Schröder and +2.7 against Royce O'Neale.
The stoppers on threes: Bilal Coulibaly held shooters 1.7 points under their usual 3P%, Sion James held shooters 0.5 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Trae Young sees Schröder on 14% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Charlotte's ball security vs Washington's hands.
Charlotte turned it over on 14.4% of possessions last season (24th fewest).
Washington forced turnovers on 12.6% (22nd most), with 8.0 steals (21st) and 5.5 blocks (5th) a game.
Shot diets.
Charlotte: 48.7% of shots from three (2nd), 27.8% at the rim (24th).
Washington: 40.3% of shots from three (20th), 29.2% at the rim (18th).
Charlotte's defense: 19th fewest rim attempts allowed, 18th lowest opponent three-point % (35.9%).
Washington's defense: 30th fewest rim attempts allowed, 24th lowest opponent three-point % (36.8%).
Charlotte's offense runs through Brandon Miller on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 5.0 a game last season, 31st most in the NBA.
0.93 points per play (top 29%), turnover on 18% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Charlotte's roll men scored 1.19 (4th in the league). Brandon Miller alone: 1.09.
Washington faced 17.1 of those a game (19th most) and ranked 27th defending them. Against the roll man: 6th.
In the sim: 0.76 Miller-to-Reid baskets a game.
With 5+ Miller assists, Charlotte wins 85.2%.
Washington's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, the roll man. It ranked 30th, 30th, 6th, 11th in points per play on them.
Charlotte's defense ranked 8th, 9th, 24th, 18th against those same four.
Where Washington can hit back:
- Charlotte was 24th defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. Kyshawn George ran 4.4 a game at 0.84 per play
- Charlotte was 19th defending isolation. Bilal Coulibaly ran 1.1 a game at 0.74 per play
One check against real life:
Brandon Miller scored 21.0 points in his 3 games against Washington last season, 22 of them on Feb 22. In our 5,000 sims: 27.0.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Charlotte leads by as many as 11 in the first half; Charlotte leads 58-53 at the break
- Charlotte's 11-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing
- Reid puts Charlotte ahead for good with 4:48 left in the 2nd
- Johnson goes 6 of 9 off Washington's bench
- Charlotte leads by 22 at its high point in the 4th. Washington gets within 11. Allen scores last; final 124-110 Charlotte
How Washington wins (980 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 13.0 a game in its wins, 10.9 in its losses. At 14 or more, it wins 36%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 27%
- Davis scores 25 or more: then it wins 26%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Charlotte wins 80.4%. The books (Draft Kings) have Charlotte at 54%, ESPN's model at 54%.
Median score: Charlotte 123, Washington 111
Charlotte covers -1.5 in 78%
Over 227.5 in 62%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Trae Young pts+ast line 31.5, sim 22.9; Trae Young assists line 9.5, sim 6.7; Trae Young pts+reb line 23.5, sim 18.0
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.0 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Justin Champagnie under 13.5 pts+reb (85%, sim avg 9.4)
- Justin Champagnie under 5.5 rebounds (85%, sim avg 3.6)
- Kyshawn George under 14.5 points (82%, sim avg 10.2)
- Alex Sarr under 6.5 rebounds (82%, sim avg 4.6)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (WAS score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Mon Oct 26, 8:12 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Champagnie | under 13.5 pts+reb | 85% | -124 | |
| Justin Champagnie | under 5.5 rebounds | 85% | -129 | |
| Kyshawn George | under 14.5 points | 82% | -125 | |
| Alex Sarr | under 6.5 rebounds | 82% | -136 | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | under 4.5 rebounds | 82% | -142 | |
| Kyshawn George | under 18.5 pts+reb | 81% | -123 | |
| Kyshawn George | under 17.5 pts+ast | 81% | -120 | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | under 13.5 pts+reb | 75% | -122 | |
| Alex Sarr | under 2.5 assists | 74% | -162 | |
| Sion James | under 1.5 threes | 71% | -146 |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Youngnew team | pts+ast | 31.5 | 22.9 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Trae Youngnew team | assists | 9.5 | 6.7 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Justin Champagnie | pts+reb | 13.5 | 9.4 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Justin Champagnie | rebounds | 5.5 | 3.6 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Kyshawn George | points | 14.5 | 10.2 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Alex Sarr | rebounds | 6.5 | 4.6 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.0 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Trae Youngnew team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 18.0 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Kyshawn George | pts+reb | 18.5 | 14.0 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Kyshawn George | pts+ast | 17.5 | 13.2 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Trae Youngnew team | points | 20.5 | 16.2 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Anthony Davisnew team | rebounds | 10.5 | 8.5 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Anthony Davisnew team | pts+reb | 32.5 | 27.9 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | pts+reb | 13.5 | 10.6 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Alex Sarr | assists | 2.5 | 1.7 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | pts+reb | 19.5 | 16.2 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Trae Youngnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.8 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Sion James | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Justin Champagnie | points | 7.5 | 5.8 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | points | 9.5 | 7.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Anthony Davisnew team | pts+ast | 24.5 | 21.6 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.8 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Tre Johnson | points | 10.5 | 8.6 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Grayson Allennew team | threes | 2.5 | 3.5 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | points | 15.5 | 13.4 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Trae Youngnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.0 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Kyshawn George | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.8 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Grayson Allennew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.4 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Sion James | pts+reb | 10.5 | 9.2 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Brandon Miller | pts+ast | 27.5 | 30.8 | 65% | over 65% | |
| Brandon Miller | threes | 3.5 | 4.4 | 65% | over 65% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | pts+ast | 21.5 | 19.5 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Grayson Allennew team | assists | 3.5 | 4.4 | 65% | over 65% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | pts+reb | 26.5 | 24.1 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Alex Sarr | pts+reb | 17.5 | 15.8 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Sion James | points | 6.5 | 5.6 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Anthony Davisnew team | points | 21.5 | 19.4 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Kyshawn George | assists | 3.5 | 3.0 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | rebounds | 7.5 | 6.8 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Moussa Diabaté | pts+reb | 17.5 | 16.2 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Sion James | pts+ast | 9.5 | 8.5 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Grayson Allennew team | pts+ast | 19.5 | 22.0 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Brandon Miller | pts+reb | 29.5 | 32.1 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Brandon Miller | points | 24.5 | 27.0 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Anthony Davisnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.2 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Grayson Allennew team | pts+reb | 18.5 | 21.0 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | pts+ast | 21.5 | 20.0 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Tre Johnson | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Moussa Diabaté | points | 8.5 | 7.9 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Brandon Miller | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.1 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Grayson Allennew team | points | 15.5 | 17.6 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | points | 18.5 | 17.3 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | assists | 6.5 | 6.2 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Alex Sarr | pts+ast | 13.5 | 12.9 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | points | 5.5 | 6.2 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Sion James | assists | 2.5 | 2.9 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Alex Sarr | points | 11.5 | 11.1 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | threes | 0.5 | 0.8 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Kyshawn George | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Moussa Diabaté | rebounds | 8.5 | 8.3 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Brandon Miller | assists | 3.5 | 3.8 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.7 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Sion James | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.7 | 50% | over 50% | |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | pts+reb | 10.5 | 10.8 | 50% | under 50% |