Dallas @ Miami
Tip-off 4:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for MIA
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Miami winning 70.5% of 5,000 games, against 73% from the books. The median score is Miami 128, Dallas 120. In the most typical game: Miami leads by as many as 20 in the first half; Miami leads 71-57 at the break. Dallas's 9-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing. Antetokounmpo puts Miami ahead for good with 6:00 left in the 4th. Mitchell finds Antetokounmpo 4 times. Washington finds Irving 3 times. Portis goes 5 of 9 off Miami's bench. Miami leads by 10 at its high point in the 4th. Dallas pulls even late. Wiggins scores last; final 128-119 Miami.
Dallas wins 1,475 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 18+ threes (it wins 51%), wins the turnover battle (42%) or gets 36+ from Irving (41%). The matchup to watch is Dallas's ball security against Miami's hands. Miami covers -8.5 in 51% and the game goes over 239.5 in 67%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Dec 3), Dallas won in Dallas, 118-108.
Tonight Dallas is without Santi Aldama, Cooper Flagg, Dereck Lively II and Naji Marshall.
Miami went 43-39 last season (17th best record in the NBA).
Dallas went 26-56 last season (23rd best record in the NBA).
Miami won the season series 1-1.
Myron Gardner missed 2 of the 2 meetings.
Miami: gone: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (now MIL), Norman Powell (now CHI), Kel'el Ware (now MIL); new: Giannis Antetokounmpo (from MIL), Tim Hardaway Jr. (from DEN), Bobby Portis Jr. (from MIL), Klay Thompson (from DAL), Nick Richards (from CHI), Tre Donaldson (no NBA minutes last season).
Dallas: gone: Klay Thompson (now MIA), Brandon Williams (now GSW), Ryan Nembhard (now DEN); new: Kyrie Irving (no NBA minutes last season), Zaccharie Risacher (from ATL), Walter Clayton Jr. (from UTA), Marcus Sasser (from DET), Sergio de Larrea (no NBA minutes last season), Morez Johnson Jr. (no NBA minutes last season), Jett Howard (from ORL), Tobi Lawal (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
MIA: Adebayo, Mitchell, Antetokounmpo, Wiggins, Larsson
Bench: Hardaway, Portis, Thompson, Jović, Smith, Fontecchio (+4 under 8 min)
No NBA history: Donaldson (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies)
DAL: Irving, Washington, Christie, Risacher, Gafford
Bench: Clayton, Sasser, Larrea, M. Johnson, Howard, Cissé (+1 under 8 min)
Out: Aldama, Biberović, Flagg, Lively, Marshall, Martin
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +3.3 points vs their usual FG% against Bobby Portis Jr. and +1.8 against Tim Hardaway Jr..
The stoppers on threes: Zaccharie Risacher held shooters 4.2 points under their usual 3P%, Daniel Gafford held shooters 3.5 points under their usual 3P%.
The matchup to watch: Dallas's ball security vs Miami's hands.
Dallas turned it over on 13.4% of possessions last season (13th fewest).
Miami forced turnovers on 13.5% (17th most), with 8.6 steals (13th) and 4.3 blocks (24th) a game.
Shot diets.
Miami: 40.6% of shots from three (18th), 31.0% at the rim (12th).
Dallas: 35.5% of shots from three (27th), 31.0% at the rim (11th).
Miami's defense: 12th fewest rim attempts allowed, 17th lowest opponent three-point % (35.9%).
Dallas's defense: 22nd fewest rim attempts allowed, 6th lowest opponent three-point % (35.0%).
Miami's offense runs through Giannis Antetokounmpo on post-ups: 4.6 a game last season, 4th most in the NBA.
1.11 points per play (top 27%), turnover on 17% of them.
Dallas faced 3.1 of those a game (24th most) and ranked 19th defending them.
In the sim: 1.07 Antetokounmpo-to-Adebayo baskets a game.
With 7+ Antetokounmpo assists, Miami wins 76.2%.
Dallas's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation. It ranked 27th, 2nd, 25th, 26th in points per play on them.
Miami's defense ranked 7th, 17th, 23rd, 13th against those same four.
Where Dallas can hit back:
- Miami was 26th defending off-screen shots. Max Christie ran 0.8 a game at 1.00 per play
- Miami was 25th defending putbacks. Daniel Gafford ran 1.8 a game at 1.36 per play
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Miami leads by as many as 20 in the first half; Miami leads 71-57 at the break
- Dallas's 9-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing
- Antetokounmpo puts Miami ahead for good with 6:00 left in the 4th
- Mitchell finds Antetokounmpo 4 times
- Washington finds Irving 3 times
- Portis goes 5 of 9 off Miami's bench
- Miami leads by 10 at its high point in the 4th. Dallas pulls even late. Wiggins scores last; final 128-119 Miami
How Dallas wins (1,475 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 16.3 a game in its wins, 13.9 in its losses. At 18 or more, it wins 51%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 42%
- Irving scores 36 or more: then it wins 41%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Miami wins 70.5%. The books (Draft Kings) have Miami at 73%, ESPN's model at 70%.
Median score: Miami 128, Dallas 120
Miami covers -8.5 in 51%
Over 239.5 in 67%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Kyrie Irving pts+ast line 27.5, sim 35.9; Kyrie Irving pts+reb line 26.5, sim 35.0; Giannis Antetokounmpo rebounds line 11.5, sim 8.6
- P.J. Washington over 6.5 rebounds (73%, sim avg 8.4)
- P.J. Washington over 21.5 pts+reb (71%, sim avg 25.5)
- Davion Mitchell under 18.5 pts+ast (69%, sim avg 16.2)
- Davion Mitchell under 13.5 pts+reb (68%, sim avg 11.5)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (DAL score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Mon Oct 26, 8:12 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | over 6.5 rebounds | 73% | -148 | |
| P.J. Washington | over 21.5 pts+reb | 71% | -122 | |
| Davion Mitchell | under 18.5 pts+ast | 69% | -126 | |
| Davion Mitchell | under 13.5 pts+reb | 68% | -115 | |
| Pelle Larsson | over 2.5 assists | 67% | -169 | |
| Davion Mitchell | under 10.5 points | 66% | -121 | |
| Davion Mitchell | under 1.5 threes | 65% | -166 | |
| Andrew Wiggins | under 4.5 rebounds | 65% | -153 | |
| P.J. Washington | over 14.5 points | 64% | -115 | |
| Pelle Larsson | over 2.5 rebounds | 64% | -168 |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irvingnew team | pts+ast | 27.5 | 35.9 | 85% | over 85% | |
| Kyrie Irvingnew team | pts+reb | 26.5 | 35.0 | 85% | over 85% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | rebounds | 11.5 | 8.6 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Kyrie Irvingnew team | points | 22.5 | 29.8 | 82% | over 82% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | pts+reb | 42.5 | 36.0 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Kyrie Irvingnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 5.2 | 76% | over 76% | |
| Klay Thompsonnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.8 | 26% | under 74% | |
| P.J. Washington | rebounds | 6.5 | 8.4 | 73% | over 73% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | pts+ast | 37.5 | 33.1 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Kyrie Irvingnew team | assists | 4.5 | 6.1 | 73% | over 73% | |
| P.J. Washington | pts+reb | 21.5 | 25.5 | 71% | over 71% | |
| Kyrie Irvingnew team | threes | 2.5 | 3.6 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Davion Mitchell | pts+ast | 18.5 | 16.2 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Davion Mitchell | pts+reb | 13.5 | 11.5 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Bobby Portis Jr.new team | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.5 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | points | 30.5 | 27.3 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Pelle Larsson | assists | 2.5 | 3.4 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Davion Mitchell | points | 10.5 | 8.9 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Davion Mitchell | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.9 | 35% | under 65% | |
| P.J. Washington | points | 14.5 | 17.1 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Pelle Larsson | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.2 | 64% | over 64% | |
| Pelle Larsson | points | 10.5 | 9.4 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Bam Adebayo | rebounds | 9.5 | 8.9 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Pelle Larsson | pts+reb | 13.5 | 12.7 | 41% | under 59% | |
| P.J. Washington | threes | 1.5 | 2.0 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Pelle Larsson | pts+ast | 13.5 | 12.8 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Klay Thompsonnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.4 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Bobby Portis Jr.new team | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Pelle Larsson | threes | 0.5 | 0.9 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.new team | threes | 1.5 | 1.9 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Klay Thompsonnew team | pts+reb | 12.5 | 12.0 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Bobby Portis Jr.new team | points | 10.5 | 11.6 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Bobby Portis Jr.new team | pts+reb | 17.5 | 17.1 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Davion Mitchell | assists | 7.5 | 7.3 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Klay Thompsonnew team | points | 10.5 | 10.3 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Bam Adebayo | pts+reb | 28.5 | 28.1 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Bam Adebayo | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Andrew Wiggins | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Davion Mitchell | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Bam Adebayo | points | 18.5 | 19.2 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.new team | points | 8.5 | 9.1 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Bam Adebayo | assists | 3.5 | 3.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Giannis Antetokounmponew team | assists | 5.5 | 5.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Bam Adebayo | pts+ast | 22.5 | 22.9 | 50% | under 50% |