Chicago @ Boston
Tip-off 4:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for BOS
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Boston winning 82.9% of 5,000 games, against 85% from the books. The median score is Boston 124, Chicago 111. In the most typical game: Boston leads by as many as 26 in the first half; Boston leads 64-46 at the break. Boston's 15-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. Tatum puts Boston ahead for good with 8:07 left in the 1st. Tatum finds Garza 3 times. Jones goes 5 of 11 off Chicago's bench. Boston leads by 20 at its high point in the 4th. Chicago gets within 14. Giddey scores last; final 125-111 Boston.
Chicago wins 854 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 16+ threes (it wins 30%), wins the turnover battle (28%) or gets 26+ from Wilson (25%). The matchup to watch is Boston's ball security against Chicago's hands. Boston covers -14.5 in 49% and the game goes over 231.5 in 57%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Feb 11), Boston won in Boston, 124-105.
Tonight Boston is without Devin Carter.
Tonight Chicago is without Nic Claxton.
Boston went 56-26 last season (4th best record in the NBA).
Chicago went 31-51 last season (22nd best record in the NBA).
Boston won the season series 2-1.
Josh Giddey missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Tre Jones missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Jalen Smith missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Boston: gone: Jaylen Brown (now PHI), Anfernee Simons (now PHI); new: Paul George (from PHI), Mitchell Robinson (from NYK), Mike Conley (from MIN), Chris Cenac Jr. (rookie, #27 pick), Dillon Mitchell (rookie, #40 pick).
Chicago: gone: Nikola Vučević (now ORL), Ayo Dosunmu (now MIN); new: Caleb Wilson (no NBA minutes last season), Norman Powell (from MIA), Buddy Hield (from GSW), Tobe Awaka (no NBA minutes last season), Jaylin Sellers (no NBA minutes last season), Jordan Hawkins (from NOP), Dailyn Swain (rookie, #15 pick).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
BOS: White, Tatum, Pritchard, George, Queta
Bench: Hauser, Robinson, Scheierman, Walsh, Conley, Garza (+4 under 8 min)
Out: Carter
No NBA history: Cenac (#27 pick, 8 min from past rookies), Mitchell (#40 pick, 3 min from past rookies)
CHI: Wilson, Giddey, Powell, Buzelis, Okoro
Bench: Jones, Smith, Miller, Collins, Williams, Hield, Awaka, Sellers (+2 under 8 min)
Out: Claxton
Maybe: Williams (50% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Swain (#15 pick, 8 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +5.6 points vs their usual FG% against Norman Powell and +3.4 against Josh Giddey.
The stoppers on threes: Derrick White held shooters 1.5 points under their usual 3P%, Matas Buzelis held shooters 0.2 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Payton Pritchard sees Powell on 23% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Boston's ball security vs Chicago's hands.
Boston turned it over on 11.8% of possessions last season (2nd fewest).
Chicago forced turnovers on 11.8% (29th most), with 7.6 steals (23rd) and 5.0 blocks (11th) a game.
Shot diets.
Boston: 46.7% of shots from three (4th), 22.8% at the rim (30th).
Chicago: 44.3% of shots from three (8th), 36.7% at the rim (3rd).
Boston's defense: fewest rim attempts allowed, 16th lowest opponent three-point % (35.8%).
Chicago's defense: 28th fewest rim attempts allowed, 23rd lowest opponent three-point % (36.8%).
Boston's offense runs through Derrick White on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 5.7 a game last season, 25th most in the NBA.
0.92 points per play (top 34%), turnover on 10% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Boston's roll men scored 1.14 (10th in the league). Neemias Queta alone: 1.35.
Chicago faced 16.4 of those a game (22nd most) and ranked 10th defending them. Against the roll man: 26th.
In the sim: 1.00 White-to-Tatum baskets a game (last season: 0.93).
With 6+ White assists, Boston wins 87.2%.
Chicago's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, the roll man. It ranked 19th, 15th, 21st, 24th in points per play on them.
Boston's defense ranked 3rd, 20th, 20th, 25th against those same four.
Where Chicago can hit back:
- Boston was 25th defending the roll man. Jalen Smith ran 1.9 a game at 1.15 per play
- Boston was 20th defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. Josh Giddey ran 7.2 a game at 0.77 per play
One check against real life:
Derrick White scored 11.3 points in his 3 games against Chicago last season, 15 of them on Jan 24. In our 5,000 sims: 17.0.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Boston leads by as many as 26 in the first half; Boston leads 64-46 at the break
- Boston's 15-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- Tatum puts Boston ahead for good with 8:07 left in the 1st
- Tatum finds Garza 3 times
- Jones goes 5 of 11 off Chicago's bench
- Boston leads by 20 at its high point in the 4th. Chicago gets within 14. Giddey scores last; final 125-111 Boston
How Chicago wins (854 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.5 a game in its wins, 13.3 in its losses. At 16 or more, it wins 30%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 28%
- Wilson scores 26 or more: then it wins 25%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Boston wins 82.9%. The books (Draft Kings) have Boston at 85%, ESPN's model at 84%.
Median score: Boston 124, Chicago 111
Boston covers -14.5 in 49%
Over 231.5 in 57%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Mitchell Robinson pts+reb line 14.5, sim 8.9; Mitchell Robinson rebounds line 7.5, sim 5.1; Mitchell Robinson points line 6.5, sim 3.8
Caution: tonight the sim sits 0.8 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Leonard Miller under 14.5 pts+reb (92%, sim avg 8.6)
- Jalen Smith under 18.5 pts+reb (91%, sim avg 12.0)
- Jalen Smith under 7.5 rebounds (89%, sim avg 4.8)
- Leonard Miller under 9.5 points (85%, sim avg 5.7)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (CHI score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Mon Oct 26, 8:12 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Miller | under 14.5 pts+reb | 92% | -120 | |
| Jalen Smith | under 18.5 pts+reb | 91% | -120 | |
| Jalen Smith | under 7.5 rebounds | 89% | -119 | |
| Leonard Miller | under 9.5 points | 85% | -128 | |
| Jalen Smith | under 12.5 pts+ast | 84% | -130 | |
| Leonard Miller | under 4.5 rebounds | 84% | -155 | |
| Jalen Smith | under 10.5 points | 80% | -115 | |
| Neemias Queta | under 17.5 pts+reb | 78% | -126 | |
| Jalen Smith | under 1.5 assists | 77% | -131 | |
| Matas Buzelis | under 2.5 threes | 74% | -189 |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Robinsonnew team | pts+reb | 14.5 | 8.9 | 7% | under 93% | |
| Leonard Miller | pts+reb | 14.5 | 8.6 | 8% | under 92% | |
| Jalen Smith | pts+reb | 18.5 | 12.0 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Jalen Smith | rebounds | 7.5 | 4.8 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Mitchell Robinsonnew team | rebounds | 7.5 | 5.1 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Mitchell Robinsonnew team | points | 6.5 | 3.8 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Leonard Miller | points | 9.5 | 5.7 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Jalen Smith | pts+ast | 12.5 | 8.2 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Leonard Miller | rebounds | 4.5 | 2.9 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Jalen Smith | points | 10.5 | 7.2 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Neemias Queta | pts+reb | 17.5 | 14.0 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Jalen Smith | assists | 1.5 | 0.9 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Matas Buzelis | threes | 2.5 | 1.8 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Matas Buzelis | pts+reb | 20.5 | 17.1 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | pts+reb | 22.5 | 18.9 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Neemias Queta | rebounds | 7.5 | 6.2 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Jalen Smith | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | points | 16.5 | 20.4 | 71% | over 71% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.8 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Tre Jones | pts+reb | 12.5 | 10.7 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Matas Buzelis | pts+ast | 16.5 | 14.1 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Neemias Queta | points | 9.5 | 7.8 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Matas Buzelis | points | 14.5 | 12.4 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Matas Buzelis | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.7 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | points | 18.5 | 16.2 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | pts+ast | 20.5 | 18.2 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 26.7 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Paul Georgenew team | threes | 3.5 | 3.0 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Derrick White | assists | 5.5 | 4.8 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jayson Tatum | assists | 6.5 | 5.8 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Tre Jones | points | 9.5 | 8.2 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.2 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | threes | 1.5 | 2.1 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Tre Jones | pts+ast | 13.5 | 12.3 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Derrick White | threes | 2.5 | 3.1 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Tre Jones | assists | 4.5 | 4.1 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Paul Georgenew team | assists | 3.5 | 3.2 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Paul Georgenew team | pts+reb | 24.5 | 23.0 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Norman Powellnew team | assists | 1.5 | 2.0 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Derrick White | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.1 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Josh Giddey | pts+ast | 19.5 | 21.1 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Paul Georgenew team | points | 19.5 | 18.5 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Payton Pritchard | threes | 2.5 | 2.9 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Josh Giddey | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Jayson Tatum | points | 27.5 | 29.3 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Derrick White | pts+ast | 22.5 | 21.9 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Paul Georgenew team | pts+ast | 22.5 | 21.7 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Caleb Wilsonnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 6.2 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Tre Jones | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Payton Pritchard | points | 15.5 | 16.8 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Josh Giddey | points | 11.5 | 12.5 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Jayson Tatum | rebounds | 8.5 | 8.3 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Payton Pritchard | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Jayson Tatum | threes | 3.5 | 3.9 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Payton Pritchard | assists | 4.5 | 4.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Payton Pritchard | pts+ast | 20.5 | 21.2 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Payton Pritchard | pts+reb | 19.5 | 20.2 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Matas Buzelis | assists | 1.5 | 1.8 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Paul Georgenew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.5 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Josh Giddey | pts+reb | 18.5 | 19.2 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Jayson Tatum | pts+reb | 37.5 | 37.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Derrick White | pts+reb | 20.5 | 21.1 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Jayson Tatum | pts+ast | 34.5 | 35.1 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Derrick White | points | 16.5 | 17.0 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Josh Giddey | assists | 8.5 | 8.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Josh Giddey | rebounds | 6.5 | 6.7 | 51% | over 51% |