Cleveland @ Philadelphia
Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for CLE
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Cleveland winning 61.8% of 5,000 games, against 43% from the books. The median score is Philadelphia 115, Cleveland 119. In the most typical game: Cleveland leads by as many as 12 in the first half; Cleveland leads 65-59 at the break. Philadelphia's 11-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. Harden puts Cleveland ahead for good with 1:26 left in the 3rd. Watson finds Harden 3 times. Simons goes 4 of 5 off Philadelphia's bench. Cleveland leads by 10 at its high point in the 4th. Philadelphia gets within 3. Tyson scores last; final 119-114 Cleveland.
Philadelphia wins 1,909 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 15+ threes (it wins 57%), wins the turnover battle (49%) or gets 26+ from Maxey (49%). The matchup to watch is Philadelphia's ball security against Cleveland's hands. Philadelphia covers -2.5 in 34% and the game goes over 235.5 in 46%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Mar 9), Cleveland won in Cleveland, 115-101.
Tonight Philadelphia is without Dominick Barlow.
Tonight Cleveland is without Nae'Qwan Tomlin.
Philadelphia went 45-37 last season (13th best record in the NBA).
Cleveland went 52-30 last season (8th best record in the NBA).
Cleveland won the season series 4-0.
Philadelphia: gone: Quentin Grimes (now LAL), Kelly Oubre Jr. (now IND), Andre Drummond (now NYK); new: Jaylen Brown (from BOS), LeBron James (from LAL), Anfernee Simons (from BOS), Dean Wade (from CLE), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (from MEM), Caleb Love (from POR), Rayan Rupert (from POR), Labaron Philon Jr. (rookie, #22 pick).
Cleveland: gone: Dean Wade (now PHI), De'Andre Hunter (now SAC); new: James Harden (from LAC), Peyton Watson (from DEN), Meleek Thomas (rookie, #34 pick), Mario Hezonja (no NBA minutes last season), Ernest Udeh, Jr. (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
PHI: Maxey, Edgecombe, Brown, James, Embiid
Bench: Simons, Caldwell-Pope, Love, Wade, Bona, Rupert, Edwards (+2 under 8 min)
Out: Barlow, Fall, Hukporti
Maybe: Wade (50% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Philon (#22 pick, 7 min from past rookies)
CLE: Harden, Mitchell, Mobley, Watson, Merrill
Bench: Tyson, Allen, Porter (+7 under 8 min)
Out: Diop, Tomlin
Maybe: Allen (50% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Hezonja (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies), Thomas (#34 pick, 4 min from past rookies), Udeh, (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +2.9 points vs their usual FG% against Donovan Mitchell and +1.9 against LeBron James.
The stoppers on threes: VJ Edgecombe held shooters 2.7 points under their usual 3P%, Sam Merrill held shooters 2.5 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, VJ Edgecombe sees Mitchell on 22% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Philadelphia's ball security vs Cleveland's hands.
Philadelphia turned it over on 12.7% of possessions last season (6th fewest).
Cleveland forced turnovers on 13.8% (13th most), with 8.5 steals (16th) and 5.0 blocks (13th) a game.
Shot diets.
Philadelphia: 39.1% of shots from three (23rd), 33.8% at the rim (5th).
Cleveland: 44.2% of shots from three (9th), 30.2% at the rim (14th).
Philadelphia's defense: 24th fewest rim attempts allowed, 10th lowest opponent three-point % (35.3%).
Cleveland's defense: 14th fewest rim attempts allowed, 26th lowest opponent three-point % (37.2%).
Cleveland's offense runs through Donovan Mitchell on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 8.5 a game last season, 5th most in the NBA.
1.02 points per play (top 13%), turnover on 13% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Cleveland's roll men scored 1.07 (22nd in the league). Jarrett Allen alone: 1.14.
Philadelphia faced 18.5 of those a game (10th most) and ranked 3rd defending them. Against the roll man: 18th.
In the sim: 1.03 Mitchell-to-Mobley baskets a game (last season: 1.46).
With 5+ Mitchell assists, Cleveland wins 66.1%.
Philadelphia's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation. It ranked 17th, 9th, 11th, 15th in points per play on them.
Cleveland's defense ranked 24th, 6th, 6th, 10th against those same four.
Tyrese Maxey in one split:
Handoffs: 1.14 points per play (top 18%), 1.8 a game.
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.92 points per play (top 34%), 7.5 a game.
Cleveland's defense: 6th against the pick-and-roll ball handler, 23rd against handoffs.
Where Philadelphia can hit back:
- Cleveland was 24th defending spot-up shots. Caleb Love ran 4.1 a game at 0.87 per play
- Cleveland was 23rd defending handoffs. Tyrese Maxey ran 1.8 a game at 1.14 per play
One check against real life:
Donovan Mitchell scored 27.8 points in his 4 games against Philadelphia last season, 46 of them on Nov 5. In our 5,000 sims: 30.4.
Tyrese Maxey scored 21.0 points in his 3 games against Cleveland last season, 27 of them on Nov 5. In our 5,000 sims: 20.8.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Cleveland leads by as many as 12 in the first half; Cleveland leads 65-59 at the break
- Philadelphia's 11-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- Harden puts Cleveland ahead for good with 1:26 left in the 3rd
- Watson finds Harden 3 times
- Simons goes 4 of 5 off Philadelphia's bench
- Cleveland leads by 10 at its high point in the 4th. Philadelphia gets within 3. Tyson scores last; final 119-114 Cleveland
How Philadelphia wins (1,909 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 13.4 a game in its wins, 11.5 in its losses. At 15 or more, it wins 57%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 49%
- Maxey scores 26 or more: then it wins 49%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Cleveland wins 61.8%. The books (Draft Kings) have Cleveland at 43%, ESPN's model at 30%.
Median score: Philadelphia 115, Cleveland 119
Philadelphia covers -2.5 in 34%
Over 235.5 in 46%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): LeBron James assists line 7.5, sim 4.6; Kentavious Caldwell-Pope threes line 1.5, sim 0.6; Peyton Watson pts+reb line 18.5, sim 12.8
- Tyrese Maxey under 5.5 assists (76%, sim avg 4.2)
- Joel Embiid under 3.5 assists (74%, sim avg 2.6)
- Joel Embiid under 31.5 pts+reb (74%, sim avg 27.1)
- Joel Embiid under 26.5 pts+ast (73%, sim avg 22.6)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (CLE score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Allen | pts+reb | 21.5 | 10.4 | 1% | under 99% | |
| Jarrett Allen | points | 13.5 | 6.0 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Jarrett Allen | rebounds | 7.5 | 4.4 | 8% | under 92% | |
| LeBron Jamesnew team | assists | 7.5 | 4.6 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Popenew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.6 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | pts+reb | 18.5 | 12.8 | 12% | under 88% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | points | 13.5 | 8.5 | 12% | under 88% | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Popenew team | points | 6.5 | 3.6 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | assists | 5.5 | 4.2 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Joel Embiid | assists | 3.5 | 2.6 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Joel Embiid | pts+reb | 31.5 | 27.1 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Joel Embiid | pts+ast | 26.5 | 22.6 | 27% | under 73% | |
| LeBron Jamesnew team | pts+ast | 23.5 | 20.1 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | pts+reb | 30.5 | 35.6 | 72% | over 72% | |
| James Hardennew team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 27.8 | 71% | over 71% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | pts+ast | 28.5 | 25.0 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | threes | 2.5 | 3.6 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Joel Embiid | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | points | 23.5 | 20.8 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | points | 26.5 | 30.4 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Evan Mobley | threes | 0.5 | 1.1 | 67% | over 67% | |
| James Hardennew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.7 | 67% | over 67% | |
| Joel Embiid | points | 22.5 | 19.9 | 33% | under 67% | |
| LeBron Jamesnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Evan Mobley | pts+ast | 22.5 | 20.5 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Sam Merrill | threes | 2.5 | 2.1 | 35% | under 65% | |
| LeBron Jamesnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.8 | 36% | under 64% | |
| James Hardennew team | pts+ast | 26.5 | 29.3 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | pts+ast | 31.5 | 34.6 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | assists | 3.5 | 3.1 | 37% | under 63% | |
| James Hardennew team | points | 19.5 | 22.1 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | pts+reb | 26.5 | 24.6 | 38% | under 62% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | threes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Evan Mobley | rebounds | 8.5 | 9.5 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Evan Mobley | points | 18.5 | 17.2 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Jaylon Tyson | points | 8.5 | 10.1 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.2 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Evan Mobley | assists | 3.5 | 3.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| LeBron Jamesnew team | pts+reb | 22.5 | 21.3 | 40% | under 60% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.2 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Jaylon Tyson | pts+reb | 13.5 | 15.1 | 60% | over 60% | |
| James Hardennew team | assists | 6.5 | 7.2 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | assists | 4.5 | 4.2 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Joel Embiid | rebounds | 7.5 | 7.1 | 42% | under 58% | |
| James Hardennew team | threes | 2.5 | 3.0 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Evan Mobley | pts+reb | 27.5 | 26.8 | 43% | under 57% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | pts+ast | 13.5 | 13.0 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Jaylon Tyson | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.0 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Jaylon Tyson | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.3 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | pts+reb | 26.5 | 25.9 | 45% | under 55% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | assists | 2.5 | 2.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | pts+ast | 23.5 | 23.2 | 46% | under 54% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| LeBron Jamesnew team | points | 15.5 | 15.5 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Anfernee Simonsnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Sam Merrill | points | 8.5 | 8.7 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Tyrese Maxey | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.7 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Anfernee Simonsnew team | points | 8.5 | 9.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | points | 19.5 | 20.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| VJ Edgecombe | pts+reb | 15.5 | 15.8 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Jaylen Brownnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 51% | over 51% |