Minnesota @ Cleveland
Tip-off 4:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for CLE
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Cleveland winning 54.7% of 5,000 games, against 62% from the books. The median score is Cleveland 117, Minnesota 116. In the most typical game: Cleveland leads by as many as 13 in the first half; Cleveland leads 68-60 at the break. Minnesota's 11-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing. Watson puts Cleveland ahead for good with 11:38 left in the 2nd. Dosunmu finds Ball 3 times. Kuminga goes 7 of 14 off Minnesota's bench. Cleveland leads by 17 at its high point in the 4th. Minnesota gets within 2. Ball scores last; final 118-116 Cleveland.
Minnesota wins 2,267 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 17+ threes (it wins 72%), wins the turnover battle (56%) or gets 34+ from Edwards (60%). The matchup to watch is Cleveland's ball security against Minnesota's hands. Cleveland covers -4.5 in 44% and the game goes over 233.5 in 48%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Jan 10), Cleveland won in Cleveland, 146-134.
Tonight Minnesota is without Donte DiVincenzo.
Cleveland went 52-30 last season (8th best record in the NBA).
Minnesota went 49-33 last season (10th best record in the NBA).
Cleveland won the season series 1-1.
Terrence Shannon Jr missed 2 of the 2 meetings.
Cleveland: gone: Dean Wade (now PHI), De'Andre Hunter (now SAC); new: James Harden (from LAC), Peyton Watson (from DEN), Mario Hezonja (no NBA minutes last season), Meleek Thomas (rookie, #34 pick).
Minnesota: gone: Julius Randle (now BKN), Naz Reid (now CHA), Mike Conley (now BOS); new: Ayo Dosunmu (from CHI), LaMelo Ball (from CHA), Jonathan Kuminga (from GSW), Cody Williams (from UTA), Trey Lyles (no NBA minutes last season), Isaiah Evans (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
CLE: Harden, Mitchell, Mobley, Watson, Allen
Bench: Merrill, Tyson, Hezonja, Tomlin, Porter (+5 under 8 min)
No NBA history: Thomas (#34 pick, 3 min from past rookies)
MIN: Edwards, McDaniels, Gobert, Dosunmu, Ball
Bench: Kuminga, Williams, Lyles, Jr, Hyland (+5 under 8 min)
Out: DiVincenzo
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +3.7 points vs their usual FG% against LaMelo Ball and +2.9 against Donovan Mitchell.
The stoppers on threes: Ayo Dosunmu held shooters 5.6 points under their usual 3P%, Sam Merrill held shooters 2.5 points under their usual 3P%.
The matchup to watch: Cleveland's ball security vs Minnesota's hands.
Cleveland turned it over on 13.0% of possessions last season (10th fewest).
Minnesota forced turnovers on 13.8% (14th most), with 8.7 steals (12th) and 5.8 blocks (2nd) a game.
Shot diets.
Cleveland: 44.2% of shots from three (9th), 30.2% at the rim (14th).
Minnesota: 42.0% of shots from three (16th), 31.3% at the rim (10th).
Cleveland's defense: 14th fewest rim attempts allowed, 26th lowest opponent three-point % (37.2%).
Minnesota's defense: 25th fewest rim attempts allowed, 13th lowest opponent three-point % (35.5%).
Cleveland's offense runs through Donovan Mitchell on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 8.5 a game last season, 5th most in the NBA.
1.02 points per play (top 13%), turnover on 13% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Cleveland's roll men scored 1.07 (22nd in the league). Jarrett Allen alone: 1.14.
Minnesota faced 20.9 of those a game (most) and ranked 15th defending them. Against the roll man: 13th.
In the sim: 0.83 Mitchell-to-Mobley baskets a game (last season: 1.46).
With 5+ Mitchell assists, Cleveland wins 61.0%.
Minnesota's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation. It ranked 3rd, 8th, 12th, 6th in points per play on them.
Cleveland's defense ranked 24th, 6th, 6th, 10th against those same four.
Anthony Edwards in one split:
Spot-up shots: 1.31 points per play (top 5%), 3.3 a game.
Isolation: 1.04 points per play (top 19%), 6.2 a game.
Cleveland's defense: 10th against isolation, 24th against spot-up shots.
Where Minnesota can hit back:
- Cleveland was 24th defending spot-up shots. Jaden McDaniels ran 4.6 a game at 1.11 per play
- Cleveland was 23rd defending handoffs. Anthony Edwards ran 2.0 a game at 1.09 per play
One check against real life:
Donovan Mitchell scored 29.0 points in his 2 games against Minnesota last season, 30 of them on Jan 8. In our 5,000 sims: 26.1.
Anthony Edwards scored 25.0 points in his 2 games against Cleveland last season, 25 of them on Jan 10. In our 5,000 sims: 28.2.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Cleveland leads by as many as 13 in the first half; Cleveland leads 68-60 at the break
- Minnesota's 11-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing
- Watson puts Cleveland ahead for good with 11:38 left in the 2nd
- Dosunmu finds Ball 3 times
- Kuminga goes 7 of 14 off Minnesota's bench
- Cleveland leads by 17 at its high point in the 4th. Minnesota gets within 2. Ball scores last; final 118-116 Cleveland
How Minnesota wins (2,267 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.0 a game in its wins, 12.5 in its losses. At 17 or more, it wins 72%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 56%
- Edwards scores 34 or more: then it wins 60%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Cleveland wins 54.7%. The books (Draft Kings) have Cleveland at 62%, ESPN's model at 44%.
Median score: Cleveland 117, Minnesota 116
Cleveland covers -4.5 in 44%
Over 233.5 in 48%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): LaMelo Ball assists line 7.5, sim 5.8; Jonathan Kuminga threes line 1.5, sim 0.9; Ayo Dosunmu threes line 0.5, sim 1.3
- Terrence Shannon Jr under 10.5 pts+reb (88%, sim avg 6.3)
- Terrence Shannon Jr under 8.5 points (85%, sim avg 4.9)
- Terrence Shannon Jr under 2.5 rebounds (85%, sim avg 1.3)
- Jarrett Allen under 21.5 pts+reb (80%, sim avg 17.1)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (MIN score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Mon Oct 26, 8:12 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence Shannon Jr | under 10.5 pts+reb | 88% | -124 | |
| Terrence Shannon Jr | under 8.5 points | 85% | -119 | |
| Terrence Shannon Jr | under 2.5 rebounds | 85% | -149 | |
| Jarrett Allen | under 21.5 pts+reb | 80% | -121 | |
| Jarrett Allen | under 13.5 points | 78% | -117 | |
| Evan Mobley | under 1.5 threes | 75% | -220 | |
| Evan Mobley | under 27.5 pts+reb | 73% | -124 | |
| Evan Mobley | under 21.5 pts+ast | 70% | -122 | |
| Jaden McDaniels | under 14.5 points | 68% | -125 | |
| Rudy Gobert | under 9.5 points | 68% | -120 |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence Shannon Jr | pts+reb | 10.5 | 6.3 | 12% | under 88% | |
| Terrence Shannon Jr | points | 8.5 | 4.9 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Terrence Shannon Jr | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.3 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Jarrett Allen | pts+reb | 21.5 | 17.1 | 20% | under 80% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | assists | 7.5 | 5.8 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Jarrett Allen | points | 13.5 | 10.2 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Evan Mobley | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | threes | 0.5 | 1.3 | 74% | over 74% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Evan Mobley | pts+reb | 27.5 | 23.6 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | assists | 2.5 | 1.9 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | points | 12.5 | 10.0 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Evan Mobley | pts+ast | 21.5 | 18.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | pts+reb | 16.5 | 14.2 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | points | 14.5 | 12.3 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Rudy Gobert | points | 9.5 | 7.8 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | pts+reb | 19.5 | 17.1 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Anthony Edwards | assists | 2.5 | 3.4 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Rudy Gobert | pts+reb | 20.5 | 18.6 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Jaylon Tyson | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | pts+ast | 16.5 | 14.6 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Evan Mobley | points | 17.5 | 15.5 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jaylon Tyson | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.9 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Anthony Edwards | rebounds | 4.5 | 5.5 | 65% | over 65% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | pts+ast | 16.5 | 14.8 | 36% | under 64% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.9 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | points | 12.5 | 11.1 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | pts+reb | 17.5 | 15.9 | 37% | under 63% | |
| James Hardennew team | points | 16.5 | 19.1 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | assists | 4.5 | 4.1 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Evan Mobley | assists | 3.5 | 3.1 | 38% | under 62% | |
| James Hardennew team | pts+reb | 21.5 | 24.0 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Peyton Watsonnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.2 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Jarrett Allen | rebounds | 7.5 | 6.9 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | pts+reb | 15.5 | 14.4 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Rudy Gobert | rebounds | 11.5 | 10.8 | 39% | under 61% | |
| James Hardennew team | pts+ast | 23.5 | 25.8 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | pts+ast | 14.5 | 13.5 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.2 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Sam Merrill | points | 7.5 | 6.8 | 41% | under 59% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | pts+ast | 26.5 | 25.5 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Evan Mobley | rebounds | 8.5 | 8.2 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.3 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | threes | 2.5 | 2.9 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Jaylon Tyson | points | 8.5 | 8.3 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | assists | 2.5 | 2.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| James Hardennew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Jaylon Tyson | pts+reb | 12.5 | 12.2 | 46% | under 54% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | points | 18.5 | 19.7 | 54% | over 54% | |
| James Hardennew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.9 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Ayo Dosunmunew team | assists | 3.5 | 3.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Anthony Edwards | points | 28.5 | 28.2 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | pts+ast | 30.5 | 30.1 | 47% | under 53% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 23.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | points | 25.5 | 26.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| James Hardennew team | assists | 6.5 | 6.7 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Jaden McDaniels | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.8 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Anthony Edwards | threes | 3.5 | 3.5 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Sam Merrill | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Anthony Edwards | pts+ast | 31.5 | 31.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Jonathan Kuminganew team | points | 11.5 | 11.7 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Anthony Edwards | pts+reb | 33.5 | 33.7 | 49% | under 51% | |
| LaMelo Ballnew team | threes | 3.5 | 3.6 | 50% | under 50% | |
| Donovan Mitchell | pts+reb | 30.5 | 30.6 | 50% | over 50% |