Indiana @ Brooklyn
Tip-off 3:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for IND
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Indiana winning 62.2% of 5,000 games, against 70% from the books. The median score is Brooklyn 115, Indiana 121. In the most typical game: Indiana leads by as many as 12 in the first half; Indiana leads 58-47 at the break. Brooklyn's 13-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing. Siakam puts Indiana ahead for good with 0:29 left in the 4th. Zubac goes 6 of 10 off Indiana's bench. Indiana leads by 9 at its high point in the 4th. Brooklyn pulls even late. Walker scores last; final 121-116 Indiana.
Brooklyn wins 1,888 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 17+ threes (it wins 58%), wins the turnover battle (54%) or gets 25+ from Randle (47%). The matchup to watch is Indiana's ball security against Brooklyn's hands. Indiana covers -6.5 in 47% and the game goes over 231.5 in 59%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Apr 9), Indiana won in Brooklyn, 123-94.
Tonight Indiana is without Johnny Furphy, T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard.
Brooklyn went 20-62 last season (28th best record in the NBA).
Indiana went 19-63 last season (29th best record in the NBA).
Indiana won the season series 2-1.
Michael Porter Jr. missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Noah Clowney missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Danny Wolf missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Nolan Traore missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Pascal Siakam missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Andrew Nembhard missed 3 of the 3 meetings.
Aaron Nesmith missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Brooklyn: gone: Nic Claxton (now CHI), Ziaire Williams (now LAL); new: Julius Randle (from MIN), Keon Ellis (from SAC), Josh Minott (from BOS), Joshua Jefferson (rookie, #28 pick), Moritz Wagner (from ORL).
Indiana: gone: Micah Potter (now POR); new: Tyrese Haliburton (no NBA minutes last season), Kelly Oubre Jr. (from PHI), Ivica Zubac (from LAC), Larry Nance Jr. (from CLE), Braden Smith (rookie, #38 pick).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
BKN: Randle, Porter, Dëmin, Clowney, Mann
Bench: Ellis, Saraf, Powell, Wolf, Sharpe, Traore, Johnson, Minott (+2 under 8 min)
Out: Bilodeau, M. Brown
No NBA history: Jefferson (#28 pick, 7 min from past rookies)
IND: Haliburton, Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith, Oubre
Bench: Zubac, Walker, Slawson, Huff, Toppin, Jackson, K. Brown (+2 under 8 min)
Out: Furphy, McConnell, Sheppard
Maybe: Nesmith (90% to play, minutes scaled)
No NBA history: Smith (#38 pick, 3 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +4.1 points vs their usual FG% against Andrew Nembhard and +3.6 against Michael Porter Jr..
The stoppers on threes: Egor Dëmin held shooters 1.8 points under their usual 3P%, Kelly Oubre Jr. held shooters 1.8 points under their usual 3P%.
The matchup to watch: Indiana's ball security vs Brooklyn's hands.
Indiana turned it over on 13.4% of possessions last season (14th fewest).
Brooklyn forced turnovers on 13.7% (16th most), with 8.0 steals (22nd) and 4.3 blocks (23rd) a game.
Shot diets.
Brooklyn: 45.5% of shots from three (6th), 31.6% at the rim (8th).
Indiana: 42.2% of shots from three (14th), 28.9% at the rim (22nd).
Brooklyn's defense: 29th fewest rim attempts allowed, 30th lowest opponent three-point % (38.1%).
Indiana's defense: 27th fewest rim attempts allowed, 14th lowest opponent three-point % (35.5%).
Indiana's offense runs through Andrew Nembhard on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 6.7 a game last season, 18th most in the NBA.
0.94 points per play (top 28%), turnover on 13% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Indiana's roll men scored 1.13 (12th in the league). Ivica Zubac alone: 0.98.
Brooklyn faced 12.0 of those a game (30th most) and ranked 11th defending them. Against the roll man: 23rd.
In the sim: 1.19 Nembhard-to-Siakam baskets a game (last season: 2.33).
With 8+ Nembhard assists, Indiana wins 69.4%.
Brooklyn's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, handoffs. It ranked 29th, 28th, 29th, 28th in points per play on them.
Indiana's defense ranked 21st, 24th, 30th, 10th against those same four.
Julius Randle in one split:
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.88 points per play (top 42%), 1.9 a game.
Spot-up shots: 1.09 points per play (top 36%), 4.4 a game.
Indiana's defense: 21st against spot-up shots, 30th against the pick-and-roll ball handler.
Where Brooklyn can hit back:
- Indiana was 30th defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. Nolan Traore ran 3.7 a game at 0.67 per play
- Indiana was 29th defending isolation. Julius Randle ran 3.4 a game at 0.94 per play
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Indiana leads by as many as 12 in the first half; Indiana leads 58-47 at the break
- Brooklyn's 13-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing
- Siakam puts Indiana ahead for good with 0:29 left in the 4th
- Zubac goes 6 of 10 off Indiana's bench
- Indiana leads by 9 at its high point in the 4th. Brooklyn pulls even late. Walker scores last; final 121-116 Indiana
How Brooklyn wins (1,888 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.8 a game in its wins, 13.5 in its losses. At 17 or more, it wins 58%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 54%
- Randle scores 25 or more: then it wins 47%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Indiana wins 62.2%. The books (Draft Kings) have Indiana at 70%, ESPN's model at 64%.
Median score: Brooklyn 115, Indiana 121
Indiana covers -6.5 in 47%
Over 231.5 in 59%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Ivica Zubac pts+reb line 26.5, sim 18.7; Ivica Zubac rebounds line 11.5, sim 7.6; Keon Ellis pts+reb line 10.5, sim 6.1
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.9 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Day'Ron Sharpe under 19.5 pts+reb (97%, sim avg 11.1)
- Day'Ron Sharpe under 8.5 rebounds (96%, sim avg 4.5)
- Obi Toppin under 17.5 pts+reb (95%, sim avg 9.8)
- Obi Toppin under 4.5 rebounds (89%, sim avg 2.5)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (IND score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sun Oct 25, 8:06 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day'Ron Sharpe | under 19.5 pts+reb | 97% | -123 | 15 ✓ |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | under 8.5 rebounds | 96% | -140 | 4 ✓ |
| Obi Toppin | under 17.5 pts+reb | 95% | -119 | 22 ✗ |
| Obi Toppin | under 4.5 rebounds | 89% | -134 | 6 ✗ |
| Obi Toppin | under 12.5 points | 89% | -121 | 16 ✗ |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | under 12.5 pts+ast | 85% | -125 | 12 ✓ |
| Egor Dëmin | under 15.5 pts+reb | 80% | -127 | 3 ✓ |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | under 9.5 points | 79% | -127 | 11 ✗ |
| Egor Dëmin | under 15.5 pts+ast | 79% | -124 | 4 ✓ |
| Pascal Siakam | under 6.5 rebounds | 76% | -116 | 7 ✗ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day'Ron Sharpe | pts+reb | 19.5 | 11.1 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | rebounds | 8.5 | 4.5 | 4% | under 96% | |
| Obi Toppin | pts+reb | 17.5 | 9.8 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Ivica Zubacnew team | pts+reb | 26.5 | 18.7 | 8% | under 92% | |
| Ivica Zubacnew team | rebounds | 11.5 | 7.6 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Obi Toppin | rebounds | 4.5 | 2.5 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Obi Toppin | points | 12.5 | 7.2 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Keon Ellisnew team | pts+reb | 10.5 | 6.1 | 12% | under 88% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | pts+ast | 12.5 | 8.4 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Ivica Zubacnew team | pts+ast | 17.5 | 12.9 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Keon Ellisnew team | points | 7.5 | 4.5 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Egor Dëmin | pts+reb | 15.5 | 11.4 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | points | 9.5 | 6.6 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Keon Ellisnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.6 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Egor Dëmin | pts+ast | 15.5 | 11.5 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | pts+ast | 29.5 | 24.4 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Keon Ellisnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Ivica Zubacnew team | points | 14.5 | 11.1 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Pascal Siakam | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.1 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 19.6 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Egor Dëmin | points | 11.5 | 8.7 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Obi Toppin | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Ivica Zubacnew team | assists | 2.5 | 1.8 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Pascal Siakam | pts+reb | 30.5 | 26.7 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Egor Dëmin | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.7 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | assists | 2.5 | 1.9 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | points | 19.5 | 16.2 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | pts+reb | 29.5 | 25.7 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Egor Dëmin | threes | 2.5 | 1.9 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | pts+ast | 21.5 | 18.7 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | pts+reb | 17.5 | 14.8 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | assists | 9.5 | 8.2 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | assists | 5.5 | 4.5 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Pascal Siakam | assists | 3.5 | 2.8 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Egor Dëmin | assists | 3.5 | 2.8 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.new team | threes | 0.5 | 1.1 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | points | 14.5 | 12.4 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | points | 22.5 | 19.9 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | threes | 3.5 | 2.9 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | pts+ast | 24.5 | 22.3 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | pts+reb | 28.5 | 26.2 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Pascal Siakam | pts+ast | 26.5 | 24.4 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Pascal Siakam | points | 23.5 | 21.6 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Aaron Nesmith | points | 9.5 | 11.6 | 63% | over 63% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.9 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | pts+ast | 26.5 | 24.8 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.new team | points | 8.5 | 10.3 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 6.0 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | points | 21.5 | 20.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Aaron Nesmith | pts+reb | 13.5 | 15.3 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.new team | pts+reb | 12.5 | 14.0 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Aaron Nesmith | threes | 1.5 | 1.9 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | assists | 2.5 | 2.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | assists | 6.5 | 6.3 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Pascal Siakam | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.new team | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.7 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Aaron Nesmith | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.7 | 50% | over 50% |