CLE @ TEN
Kickoff 10:00 AM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for TEN
NFL backtest: the books beat this sim on every period. Read it as context, not a bet. Details
Out: Teven Jenkins, Dillon Gabriel, Mike Hall Jr., Kalia Davis, Dylan Sampson, Dorian Mausi
How the sim saw it
The sim has the Titans winning 54.8% of 5,000 games, against 46% from the books. The median score is Titans 19, Browns 17. In the most typical game: At the half: Titans 9, Browns 10. Biggest leads: Titans by 6, Browns by 8. Q4: Cam Ward to Gunnar Helm, 11 yards for the longest score of the day. 4 lead changes. Final: Titans 19-17.
The Browns win 2,239 of the 5,000. Their chances rise when Deshaun Watson throws for 256+ (they win 64%), with no interceptions (49%) or when they run for 134+ (75%). The Browns cover -2.5 in 41% and the game goes over 36.5 in 49%. Typical lines: Cam Ward: 178 passing yards; Deshaun Watson: 202 passing yards, 24 rushing yards; Wan'Dale Robinson: 4.5 catches for 36 yards; Jerry Jeudy: 4.6 catches for 51 yards.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Browns won 27-24 in Tennessee.
The Titans are 1-6 this season.
The Browns are 5-2 this season.
Who's in the sim:
TEN: QB Cam Ward
Targets: Robinson 23%, Ridley 12%, Ayomanor 11%, Dike 10%
Carries: Pollard 18, Carter 5
CLE: QB Deshaun Watson
Targets: Jeudy 26%, Fannin 21%, Judkins 11%, Bond 9%
Carries: Judkins 12, Estimé 5
Flagged: Wan'Dale Robinson (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Calvin Ridley (questionable, role scaled to 70%); Tyjae Spears (questionable, role scaled to 70%); Michael Carter (questionable, role scaled to 70%); Jaleel McLaughlin (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Tylan Wallace (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Audric Estimé (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)
Who gets hunted: Deshaun Watson.
The Browns line has given up a sack on 9.7% of dropbacks (1st most). The Titans get home on 6.8% (11th most).
Down the field, the Titans allow 40.0% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (13th most in the league).
The matchup: how each team moves the ball.
The Titans: run-leaning on early downs (29th in pass rate over expected), 5.0 yards per dropback (29th), 3.9 per carry (18th). The Browns defense: 4th against the pass, 26th against the run.
The Browns: pass-leaning on early downs (10th in pass rate over expected), 5.9 yards per dropback (22nd), 3.7 per carry (23rd). The Titans defense: 26th against the pass, 20th against the run.
The Titans engine: play-action. 17.3% of their throws (19th most), 6.0 yards per attempt (29th).
The Browns rank 7th defending play-action (6.4 yards per attempt allowed).
Wan'Dale Robinson in one split:
Straight dropbacks: 4.9 yards per target on 35 targets (bottom 2% of receivers).
The Browns rank 12th against straight dropbacks.
Where the Browns hit back:
- The Titans are 6th worst defending screens (6.4 yards per attempt). Quinshon Judkins sees the most of those targets.
- The Titans are 13th worst defending the run (4.1 yards per carry). Quinshon Judkins gets the carries.
One check against real life:
Cam Ward threw for 181 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 182.
Wan'Dale Robinson caught 4 for 7. The sims: 4.5 for 40.
Deshaun Watson threw for 308 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 206.
Jerry Jeudy caught 4 for 21. The sims: 4.6 for 55.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- At the half: Titans 9, Browns 10
- Biggest leads: Titans by 6, Browns by 8
- Q4: Cam Ward to Gunnar Helm, 11 yards for the longest score of the day
- 4 lead changes. Final: Titans 19-17
How the Browns win (2,239 of the 5,000):
- Deshaun Watson throws for 256+: then they win 64%
- No interceptions: 49%, vs 36% with one or more
- 134+ rushing yards: 75%
Across all 5,000 sims:
The Titans win 54.8%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 46%.
Median score: Titans 19, Browns 17
The Browns cover -2.5 in 41%
Over 36.5 in 49%
Typical lines:
- Cam Ward: 178 passing yards
- Deshaun Watson: 202 passing yards, 24 rushing yards
- Wan'Dale Robinson: 4.5 catches for 36 yards
- Jerry Jeudy: 4.6 catches for 51 yards
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Player projections
Median, with the 10th-90th percentile range.
| Player | Team | Role | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | TEN | QB | pass yds 178 (114-253) · pass TD 1 (0-2) · rush yds 12 (0-34) |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | RUSH/REC | rush yds 75 (36-127) · rec yds 11 (0-30) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Michael Carter | TEN | RUSH/REC | rush yds 16 (3-40) · rec yds 9 (0-30) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN | RUSH/REC | rush yds 14 (2-37) · rec yds 11 (0-33) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Julius Chestnut | TEN | RUSH | rush yds 4 (0-18) |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | REC | rec yds 36 (11-75) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Calvin Ridley | TEN | REC | rec yds 21 (0-63) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Elic Ayomanor | TEN | REC | rec yds 15 (0-49) · catches 2 (0-3) |
| Chimere Dike | TEN | REC | rec yds 14 (0-41) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Gunnar Helm | TEN | REC | rec yds 13 (0-36) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Carnell Tate | TEN | REC | rec yds 14 (0-45) · catches 2 (0-3) |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | pass yds 202 (129-288) · pass TD 1 (0-2) · rush yds 24 (6-51) |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | RUSH/REC | rush yds 28 (6-64) · rec yds 16 (1-41) · catches 2 (1-5) |
| Audric Estimé | CLE | RUSH/REC | rush yds 14 (1-39) · rec yds 5 (0-26) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | CLE | RUSH/REC | rush yds 16 (3-39) · rec yds 6 (0-24) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Malachi Corley | CLE | RUSH | rush yds 0 (0-11) |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE | REC | rec yds 51 (16-101) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | REC | rec yds 36 (10-79) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Isaiah Bond | CLE | REC | rec yds 14 (0-52) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| KC Concepcion | CLE | REC | rec yds 12 (0-38) · catches 2 (0-3) |
| Denzel Boston | CLE | REC | rec yds 16 (0-55) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Tylan Wallace | CLE | REC | rec yds 6 (0-34) · catches 1 (0-2) |