LA @ LV
Kickoff 1:25 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for LA
NFL backtest: the books beat this sim on every period. Read it as context, not a bet. Details
Out: Dont'e Thornton Jr., Carter Runyon, Nate Landman, Myles Garrett, Kobie Turner, Poona Ford, Terrance Ferguson, Davante Adams, Blake Grupe
How the sim saw it
The sim has the Rams winning 70.4% of 5,000 games, against 62% from the books. The median score is Raiders 20, Rams 27. In the most typical game: At the half: Raiders 7, Rams 13. Biggest leads: Raiders by 1, Rams by 6. Q2: Matthew Stafford to Tyler Higbee, 23 yards for the longest score of the day. Turnovers: Rams 2, Raiders 1. 4 lead changes. Final: Rams 27-20.
The Raiders win 1,460 of the 5,000. Their chances rise when Kirk Cousins throws for 298+ (they win 45%), with no interceptions (38%) or when they run for 119+ (57%). The Rams cover -3 in 65% and the game goes over 48.5 in 44%. Typical lines: Matthew Stafford: 260 passing yards; Kirk Cousins: 242 passing yards; Puka Nacua: 6.1 catches for 71 yards; Brock Bowers: 6.5 catches for 67 yards.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Rams won 35-21 in Las Vegas.
The Raiders are 3-4 this season.
The Rams are 3-4 this season.
Out tonight, starters only: Myles Garrett, Kobie Turner, Davante Adams.
Who's in the sim:
LV: QB Kirk Cousins
Targets: Bowers 26%, Tucker 19%, Mayer 15%, Jeanty 15%
Carries: Jeanty 19, Washington 2
LA: QB Matthew Stafford
Targets: Nacua 24%, Higbee 14%, Williams 14%, Parkinson 12%
Carries: Williams 18, Corum 9
Flagged: Jalen Nailor (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Cody White (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Connor Heyward (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Mike Washington Jr. (questionable, role scaled to 70%); Puka Nacua (questionable, role scaled to 70%)
Who gets hunted: Matthew Stafford.
The Rams line has given up a sack on 3.7% of dropbacks (28th most). The Raiders get home on 6.4% (15th most).
Down the field, the Raiders allow 30.6% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (20th most in the league).
The matchup: how each team moves the ball.
The Raiders: run-leaning on early downs (20th in pass rate over expected), 6.8 yards per dropback (10th), 3.2 per carry (30th). The Rams defense: 9th against the pass, 9th against the run.
The Rams: pass-leaning on early downs (8th in pass rate over expected), 6.6 yards per dropback (13th), 4.9 per carry (3rd). The Raiders defense: 24th against the pass, 32nd against the run.
The Rams engine: play-action. 20.1% of their throws (11th most), 6.8 yards per attempt (25th).
The Raiders rank 20th defending play-action (8.6 yards per attempt allowed).
Puka Nacua in one split:
Screens: 8.0 yards per target on 8 targets (top 32% of receivers).
The Raiders rank 28th against screens.
Where the Raiders hit back:
- The Rams are 4th worst defending screens (6.7 yards per attempt). Ashton Jeanty sees the most of those targets.
- The Rams are 24th worst defending the run (3.7 yards per carry). Ashton Jeanty gets the carries.
One check against real life:
Matthew Stafford threw for 195 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 262.
Puka Nacua caught 8 for 68. The sims: 6.1 for 76.
Kirk Cousins threw for 295 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 244.
Brock Bowers caught 6 for 73. The sims: 6.5 for 72.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- At the half: Raiders 7, Rams 13
- Biggest leads: Raiders by 1, Rams by 6
- Q2: Matthew Stafford to Tyler Higbee, 23 yards for the longest score of the day
- Turnovers: Rams 2, Raiders 1
- 4 lead changes. Final: Rams 27-20
How the Raiders win (1,460 of the 5,000):
- Kirk Cousins throws for 298+: then they win 45%
- No interceptions: 38%, vs 24% with one or more
- 119+ rushing yards: 57%
Across all 5,000 sims:
The Rams win 70.4%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 62%.
Median score: Raiders 20, Rams 27
The Rams cover -3 in 65%
Over 48.5 in 44%
Typical lines:
- Matthew Stafford: 260 passing yards
- Kirk Cousins: 242 passing yards
- Puka Nacua: 6.1 catches for 71 yards
- Brock Bowers: 6.5 catches for 67 yards
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Player projections
Median, with the 10th-90th percentile range.
| Player | Team | Role | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | LV | QB | pass yds 242 (162-331) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 0 (0-14) |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | RUSH/REC | rush yds 57 (22-108) · rec yds 26 (6-59) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Mike Washington Jr. | LV | RUSH | rush yds 6 (0-20) |
| Connor Heyward | LV | RUSH/REC | rush yds 2 (-1-12) · rec yds 3 (0-21) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Dylan Laube | LV | RUSH | rush yds 1 (0-11) |
| Tre Tucker | LV | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-11) · rec yds 43 (12-90) · catches 4 (2-6) |
| Brock Bowers | LV | REC | rec yds 67 (28-121) · catches 6 (3-10) |
| Michael Mayer | LV | REC | rec yds 31 (8-66) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Jalen Nailor | LV | REC | rec yds 20 (0-56) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Ian Thomas | LV | REC | rec yds 8 (0-32) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Cody White | LV | REC | rec yds 5 (0-35) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Malik Benson | LV | REC | rec yds 0 (0-14) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | QB | pass yds 260 (180-349) · pass TD 2 (0-3) · rush yds 4 (0-19) |
| Kyren Williams | LA | RUSH/REC | rush yds 77 (37-127) · rec yds 25 (6-55) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Blake Corum | LA | RUSH/REC | rush yds 36 (14-72) · rec yds 8 (0-30) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Puka Nacua | LA | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-11) · rec yds 71 (30-127) · catches 6 (3-9) |
| Jordan Whittington | LA | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-4) · rec yds 14 (0-43) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Tyler Higbee | LA | REC | rec yds 34 (8-76) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Colby Parkinson | LA | REC | rec yds 27 (5-63) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| Tutu Atwell | LA | REC | rec yds 22 (0-62) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Davis Allen | LA | REC | rec yds 11 (0-38) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Konata Mumpfield | LA | REC | rec yds 10 (0-38) · catches 1 (0-3) |