MIA @ NYJ
Kickoff 10:00 AM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for NYJ
NFL backtest: the books beat this sim on every period. Read it as context, not a bet. Details
Out: Blake Grupe, Reese Taylor, Kyle Louis, Max Mitchell, Joseph Ossai
How the sim saw it
The sim has the Jets winning 64.5% of 5,000 games, against 66% from the books. The median score is Jets 21, Dolphins 17. In the most typical game: At the half: Jets 9, Dolphins 6. Biggest leads: Jets by 9, Dolphins by 3. Q2: Geno Smith to Mason Taylor, 9 yards for the longest score of the day. Turnovers: Jets 1. 3 lead changes. Final: Jets 22-16.
The Dolphins win 1,756 of the 5,000. Their chances rise when Malik Willis throws for 219+ (they win 48%), with no interceptions (38%) or when they run for 157+ (67%). The Jets cover -4.5 in 52% and the game goes over 39.5 in 48%. Typical lines: Geno Smith: 210 passing yards; Malik Willis: 167 passing yards, 31 rushing yards; Garrett Wilson: 6.2 catches for 61 yards; Malik Washington: 5.1 catches for 43 yards.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Dolphins won 28-25 in New York.
The Jets are 2-5 this season.
The Dolphins are 1-5 this season.
Who's in the sim:
NYJ: QB Geno Smith
Targets: Wilson 28%, Mitchell 16%, Taylor 12%, Hall 9%
Carries: Hall 15, Allen 9
MIA: QB Malik Willis
Targets: Washington 28%, Tolbert 19%, Dulcich 19%, Coleman 7%
Carries: Gordon 10, Wright 10
Flagged: Breece Hall (questionable, role scaled to 70%); Tim Patrick (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Kene Nwangwu (questionable, role scaled to 70%); Geno Smith (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Jalen Tolbert (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Jared Wayne (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Malik Willis (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)
Who gets hunted: Malik Willis.
The Dolphins line has given up a sack on 8.5% of dropbacks (6th most). The Jets get home on 7.6% (5th most).
Down the field, the Jets allow 50.0% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (3rd most in the league).
The matchup: how each team moves the ball.
The Jets: run-leaning on early downs (22nd in pass rate over expected), 6.3 yards per dropback (19th), 3.9 per carry (16th). The Dolphins defense: 31st against the pass, 18th against the run.
The Dolphins: run-leaning on early downs (31st in pass rate over expected), 6.3 yards per dropback (20th), 4.0 per carry (14th). The Jets defense: 7th against the pass, 17th against the run.
The Jets engine: screens. 7.8% of their throws (18th most), 5.9 yards per attempt (12th).
The Dolphins rank 6th defending screens (3.4 yards per attempt allowed).
Garrett Wilson in one split:
Play-action: 15.4 yards per target on 11 targets (top 14% of receivers).
The Dolphins rank 31st against play-action.
Where the Dolphins hit back:
- The Jets are 3rd worst defending deep shots (50.0% completed). Malik Washington sees the most of those targets.
- The Jets are 16th worst defending the run (4.0 yards per carry). Ollie Gordon II gets the carries.
One check against real life:
Geno Smith threw for 287 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 214.
Garrett Wilson caught 2 for 26. The sims: 6.2 for 65.
Malik Willis threw for 208 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 172.
Malik Washington caught 3 for 27. The sims: 5.1 for 47.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- At the half: Jets 9, Dolphins 6
- Biggest leads: Jets by 9, Dolphins by 3
- Q2: Geno Smith to Mason Taylor, 9 yards for the longest score of the day
- Turnovers: Jets 1
- 3 lead changes. Final: Jets 22-16
How the Dolphins win (1,756 of the 5,000):
- Malik Willis throws for 219+: then they win 48%
- No interceptions: 38%, vs 26% with one or more
- 157+ rushing yards: 67%
Across all 5,000 sims:
The Jets win 64.5%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 66%.
Median score: Jets 21, Dolphins 17
The Jets cover -4.5 in 52%
Over 39.5 in 48%
Typical lines:
- Geno Smith: 210 passing yards
- Malik Willis: 167 passing yards, 31 rushing yards
- Garrett Wilson: 6.2 catches for 61 yards
- Malik Washington: 5.1 catches for 43 yards
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Player projections
Median, with the 10th-90th percentile range.
| Player | Team | Role | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | NYJ | QB | pass yds 210 (143-288) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 11 (0-30) |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RUSH/REC | rush yds 56 (24-100) · rec yds 17 (0-45) · catches 2 (1-4) |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | RUSH/REC | rush yds 34 (11-68) · rec yds 7 (0-26) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Isaiah Davis | NYJ | RUSH/REC | rush yds 15 (3-37) · rec yds 8 (0-31.1) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Kene Nwangwu | NYJ | RUSH | rush yds 1 (0-12) |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | REC | rec yds 61 (25-110) · catches 6 (3-9) |
| Adonai Mitchell | NYJ | REC | rec yds 28 (5-67) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| Mason Taylor | NYJ | REC | rec yds 18 (2-44) · catches 2 (1-5) |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | REC | rec yds 12 (0-35) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Isaiah Williams | NYJ | REC | rec yds 14 (0-42) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Tim Patrick | NYJ | REC | rec yds 13 (0-44) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Malik Willis | MIA | QB | pass yds 167 (102-249) · pass TD 1 (0-2) · rush yds 31 (10-61) |
| Ollie Gordon II | MIA | RUSH/REC | rush yds 34 (11-69) · rec yds 4 (0-20) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Jaylen Wright | MIA | RUSH/REC | rush yds 30 (9-66) · rec yds 0 (0-21) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Malik Washington | MIA | RUSH/REC | rush yds 6 (0-21) · rec yds 43 (15-85) · catches 5 (2-8) |
| Kaytron Allen | MIA | RUSH | rush yds 3 (0-15) |
| Jalen Tolbert | MIA | REC | rec yds 30 (4-70) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | REC | rec yds 32 (8-73) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Jared Wayne | MIA | REC | rec yds 4 (0-28) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | MIA | REC | rec yds 4 (0-24) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Chris Bell | MIA | REC | rec yds 6 (0-32) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Caleb Douglas | MIA | REC | rec yds 4 (0-29) · catches 1 (0-2) |