Charlotte @ Brooklyn
Tip-off 4:30 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for CHA
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Charlotte winning 73.2% of 5,000 games, against 52% from the books. The median score is Brooklyn 109, Charlotte 118. In the most typical game: Charlotte leads by as many as 13 in the first half; Charlotte leads 52-47 at the break. Charlotte's 13-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing. James puts Charlotte ahead for good with 0:30 left in the 3rd. Saraf finds Randle 3 times. Johnson goes 7 of 11 off Brooklyn's bench. Charlotte leads by 17 at its high point in the 4th. Brooklyn gets within 3. Dëmin scores last; final 119-109 Charlotte.
Brooklyn wins 1,341 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 16+ threes (it wins 44%), wins the turnover battle (38%) or gets 25+ from Porter (39%). The matchup to watch is Charlotte's ball security against Brooklyn's hands. Charlotte covers -1.5 in 71% and the game goes over 219.5 in 64%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Mar 31), Charlotte won in Brooklyn, 117-86.
Tonight Charlotte is without Kon Knueppel, Coby White and Grant Williams.
Brooklyn went 20-62 last season (28th best record in the NBA).
Charlotte went 44-38 last season (16th best record in the NBA).
Charlotte won the season series 2-1.
Danny Wolf missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Terance Mann missed 2 of the 3 meetings.
Brooklyn: gone: Nic Claxton (now CHI), Ziaire Williams (now LAL); new: Julius Randle (from MIN).
Charlotte: gone: Miles Bridges (now PHX), LaMelo Ball (now MIN), Collin Sexton (now LAL); new: Naz Reid (from MIN), Royce O'Neale (from PHX), Grayson Allen (from PHX), Dennis Schröder (from SAC), Hannes Steinbach (rookie, #14 pick), Christian Anderson (rookie, #18 pick).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
BKN: Porter, Saraf, Dëmin, Powell, Randle
Bench: Traore, Clowney, Wolf, Mann, Johnson, Sharpe
Out: Bilodeau
CHA: Miller, Diabaté, Reid, O'Neale, James
Bench: Allen, Kalkbrenner, Steinbach, Salaün, Anderson, Schröder
Out: Boswell, Knueppel, White, Williams
No NBA history: Anderson (#18 pick, 15 min from past rookies), Steinbach (#14 pick, 17 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +5.7 points vs their usual FG% against Ben Saraf and +4.0 against Noah Clowney.
The stoppers on threes: Danny Wolf held shooters 4.1 points under their usual 3P%, Egor Dëmin held shooters 1.8 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Brandon Miller sees Saraf on 17% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Charlotte's ball security vs Brooklyn's hands.
Charlotte turned it over on 14.4% of possessions last season (24th fewest).
Brooklyn forced turnovers on 13.7% (16th most), with 8.0 steals (22nd) and 4.3 blocks (23rd) a game.
Shot diets.
Brooklyn: 45.5% of shots from three (6th), 31.6% at the rim (8th).
Charlotte: 48.7% of shots from three (2nd), 27.8% at the rim (24th).
Brooklyn's defense: 29th fewest rim attempts allowed, 30th lowest opponent three-point % (38.1%).
Charlotte's defense: 19th fewest rim attempts allowed, 18th lowest opponent three-point % (35.9%).
Charlotte's offense runs through Brandon Miller on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 5.0 a game last season, 31st most in the NBA.
0.93 points per play (top 29%), turnover on 18% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Charlotte's roll men scored 1.19 (4th in the league). Brandon Miller alone: 1.09.
Brooklyn faced 12.0 of those a game (30th most) and ranked 11th defending them. Against the roll man: 23rd.
In the sim: 0.72 Miller-to-Reid baskets a game.
With 5+ Miller assists, Charlotte wins 79.3%.
Brooklyn's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, handoffs. It ranked 29th, 28th, 29th, 28th in points per play on them.
Charlotte's defense ranked 8th, 9th, 24th, 5th against those same four.
Michael Porter Jr. in one split:
Off-screen shots: 1.10 points per play (top 28%), 3.0 a game.
Spot-up shots: 0.95 points per play (bottom 32%), 4.8 a game.
Charlotte's defense: 8th against spot-up shots, 17th against off-screen shots.
Where Brooklyn can hit back:
- Charlotte was 24th defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. Nolan Traore ran 3.7 a game at 0.67 per play
- Charlotte was 19th defending isolation. Julius Randle ran 3.4 a game at 0.94 per play
One check against real life:
Brandon Miller scored 25.0 points in his 2 games against Brooklyn last season, 25 of them on Mar 31. In our 5,000 sims: 32.1.
Michael Porter Jr. scored 23.5 points in his 2 games against Charlotte last season, 35 of them on Dec 1. In our 5,000 sims: 19.3.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Charlotte leads by as many as 13 in the first half; Charlotte leads 52-47 at the break
- Charlotte's 13-0 run in the 4th quarter is the biggest swing
- James puts Charlotte ahead for good with 0:30 left in the 3rd
- Saraf finds Randle 3 times
- Johnson goes 7 of 11 off Brooklyn's bench
- Charlotte leads by 17 at its high point in the 4th. Brooklyn gets within 3. Dëmin scores last; final 119-109 Charlotte
How Brooklyn wins (1,341 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.1 a game in its wins, 12.9 in its losses. At 16 or more, it wins 44%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 38%
- Porter scores 25 or more: then it wins 39%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Charlotte wins 73.2%. The books (Draft Kings) have Charlotte at 52%, ESPN's model at 60%.
Median score: Brooklyn 109, Charlotte 118
Charlotte covers -1.5 in 71%
Over 219.5 in 64%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Julius Randle pts+ast line 24.5, sim 14.7; Julius Randle pts+reb line 25.5, sim 15.8; Dennis Schröder pts+ast line 17.5, sim 11.2
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.7 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Day'Ron Sharpe under 8.5 rebounds (89%, sim avg 5.6)
- Day'Ron Sharpe under 19.5 pts+reb (87%, sim avg 14.1)
- Brandon Miller over 24.5 points (82%, sim avg 32.1)
- Day'Ron Sharpe under 14.5 pts+ast (82%, sim avg 10.6)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (CHA score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randlenew team | pts+ast | 24.5 | 14.7 | 4% | under 96% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | pts+reb | 25.5 | 15.8 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | pts+ast | 17.5 | 11.2 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | assists | 6.5 | 3.9 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | points | 18.5 | 11.8 | 10% | under 90% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | pts+reb | 14.5 | 8.8 | 10% | under 90% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 4.0 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | rebounds | 8.5 | 5.6 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | pts+reb | 19.5 | 14.1 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | points | 11.5 | 7.3 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | assists | 4.5 | 2.9 | 16% | under 84% | |
| Brandon Miller | points | 24.5 | 32.1 | 82% | over 82% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | pts+ast | 14.5 | 10.6 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.5 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Dennis Schrödernew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.8 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | pts+reb | 24.5 | 19.6 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Brandon Miller | threes | 3.5 | 5.3 | 79% | over 79% | |
| Brandon Miller | pts+reb | 30.5 | 37.2 | 78% | over 78% | |
| Julius Randlenew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Egor Dëmin | pts+reb | 16.5 | 13.1 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | pts+ast | 20.5 | 16.7 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Egor Dëmin | pts+ast | 16.5 | 13.2 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Grayson Allennew team | pts+reb | 17.5 | 14.1 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Moussa Diabaté | pts+reb | 15.5 | 19.1 | 73% | over 73% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | assists | 2.5 | 1.8 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | points | 17.5 | 14.2 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | pts+reb | 28.5 | 24.9 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Egor Dëmin | points | 12.5 | 10.1 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.3 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Grayson Allennew team | points | 14.5 | 11.8 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | pts+ast | 24.5 | 21.1 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | points | 10.5 | 8.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Moussa Diabaté | points | 7.5 | 10.0 | 70% | over 70% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | points | 22.5 | 19.3 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Grayson Allennew team | pts+ast | 17.5 | 15.0 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.6 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | threes | 3.5 | 2.9 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | assists | 2.5 | 2.1 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Egor Dëmin | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.0 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Royce O'Nealenew team | pts+reb | 12.5 | 11.1 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.1 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Royce O'Nealenew team | pts+ast | 11.5 | 10.2 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Egor Dëmin | assists | 3.5 | 3.1 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Grayson Allennew team | assists | 3.5 | 3.1 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Egor Dëmin | threes | 2.5 | 2.2 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Royce O'Nealenew team | points | 8.5 | 7.5 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Brandon Miller | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.1 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Grayson Allennew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.3 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Royce O'Nealenew team | threes | 1.5 | 2.0 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Naz Reidnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Grayson Allennew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Moussa Diabaté | rebounds | 8.5 | 9.1 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Brandon Miller | assists | 3.5 | 3.9 | 55% | over 55% | |
| Royce O'Nealenew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Royce O'Nealenew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.7 | 50% | over 50% |