TB @ CAR
Kickoff 10:00 AM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for CAR
NFL backtest: the books beat this sim on every period. Read it as context, not a bet. Details
Out: Thomas Incoom, Jaelan Phillips, Bam Martin-Scott, Jonathon Brooks, Cam Jackson, Luke Goedeke, Antoine Winfield Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Christian Rozeboom
How the sim saw it
The sim has the Panthers winning 62.1% of 5,000 games, against 58% from the books. The median score is Panthers 24, Buccaneers 19. In the most typical game: At the half: Panthers 9, Buccaneers 10. Biggest leads: Panthers by 6, Buccaneers by 4. Q3: Bryce Young to Brycen Tremayne, 24 yards for the longest score of the day. Turnovers: Buccaneers 1. 6 lead changes. Final: Panthers 23-19.
The Buccaneers win 1,871 of the 5,000. Their chances rise when Jalon Daniels throws for 238+ (they win 50%), with no interceptions (49%) or when they run for 165+ (71%). The Panthers cover -3 in 56% and the game goes over 44.5 in 41%. Typical lines: Bryce Young: 234 passing yards; Jalon Daniels: 189 passing yards, 22 rushing yards; Tetairoa McMillan: 3.9 catches for 46 yards; Chris Godwin Jr.: 4.8 catches for 45 yards.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Buccaneers won 43-13 in Carolina.
The Panthers are 3-3 this season.
The Buccaneers are 2-5 this season.
Out tonight, starters only: Jaelan Phillips, Cam Jackson, Luke Goedeke, Antoine Winfield Jr., Emeka Egbuka.
Who's in the sim:
CAR: QB Bryce Young
Targets: McMillan 19%, Coker 16%, Waller 12%, Metchie 11%
Carries: Hubbard 18, Dillon 6
TB: QB Jalon Daniels
Targets: Godwin 23%, Otton 21%, Gainwell 14%, Irving 13%
Carries: Irving 15, Gainwell 5
Flagged: Darren Waller (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); John Metchie III (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); AJ Dillon (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Kenny Gainwell (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); David Sills (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)
Who gets hunted: Jalon Daniels.
The Buccaneers line has given up a sack on 8.7% of dropbacks (5th most). The Panthers get home on 4.8% (23rd most).
Down the field, the Buccaneers allow 38.1% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (14th most in the league).
The matchup: how each team moves the ball.
The Panthers: pass-leaning on early downs (2nd in pass rate over expected), 6.8 yards per dropback (12th), 4.2 per carry (11th). The Buccaneers defense: 11th against the pass, 8th against the run.
The Buccaneers: run-leaning on early downs (30th in pass rate over expected), 4.9 yards per dropback (32nd), 4.7 per carry (5th). The Panthers defense: 8th against the pass, 31st against the run.
The Panthers engine: play-action. 21.6% of their throws (9th most), 8.8 yards per attempt (11th).
The Buccaneers rank 13th defending play-action (7.8 yards per attempt allowed).
Tetairoa McMillan in one split:
Play-action: 13.9 yards per target on 11 targets (top 22% of receivers).
The Buccaneers rank 13th against play-action.
Where the Buccaneers hit back:
- The Panthers are 2nd worst defending the run (5.0 yards per carry). Bucky Irving gets the carries.
- The Panthers are 12th worst defending screens (5.9 yards per attempt). Chris Godwin Jr. sees the most of those targets.
One check against real life:
Bryce Young threw for 163 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 236.
Tetairoa McMillan caught 4 for 40. The sims: 3.9 for 51.
Chris Godwin Jr. caught 4 for 27. The sims: 4.8 for 50.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- At the half: Panthers 9, Buccaneers 10
- Biggest leads: Panthers by 6, Buccaneers by 4
- Q3: Bryce Young to Brycen Tremayne, 24 yards for the longest score of the day
- Turnovers: Buccaneers 1
- 6 lead changes. Final: Panthers 23-19
How the Buccaneers win (1,871 of the 5,000):
- Jalon Daniels throws for 238+: then they win 50%
- No interceptions: 49%, vs 30% with one or more
- 165+ rushing yards: 71%
Across all 5,000 sims:
The Panthers win 62.1%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 58%.
Median score: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 19
The Panthers cover -3 in 56%
Over 44.5 in 41%
Typical lines:
- Bryce Young: 234 passing yards
- Jalon Daniels: 189 passing yards, 22 rushing yards
- Tetairoa McMillan: 3.9 catches for 46 yards
- Chris Godwin Jr.: 4.8 catches for 45 yards
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Player projections
Median, with the 10th-90th percentile range.
| Player | Team | Role | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | CAR | QB | pass yds 234 (158-317) · pass TD 1 (0-3) · rush yds 13 (0-34) |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RUSH/REC | rush yds 69 (32-120) · rec yds 14 (1-38) · catches 2 (1-5) |
| AJ Dillon | CAR | RUSH | rush yds 18 (3-46) |
| Trevor Etienne | CAR | RUSH | rush yds 3 (0-15) |
| John Metchie III | CAR | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-3) · rec yds 18 (1-48) · catches 2 (1-4) |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | REC | rec yds 46 (13-95) · catches 4 (2-6) |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | REC | rec yds 41 (11-86) · catches 4 (1-6) |
| Darren Waller | CAR | REC | rec yds 23 (3-58) · catches 2 (1-5) |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR | REC | rec yds 18 (1-47) · catches 2 (1-4) |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | CAR | REC | rec yds 15 (0-40) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| David Moore | CAR | REC | rec yds 14 (0-44) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Brycen Tremayne | CAR | REC | rec yds 8 (0-37) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Jalon Daniels | TB | QB | pass yds 189 (120.9-269) · pass TD 1 (0-2) · rush yds 22 (5-48) |
| Bucky Irving | TB | RUSH/REC | rush yds 56 (24-102) · rec yds 19 (3-46.1) · catches 3 (1-5) |
| Kenny Gainwell | TB | RUSH/REC | rush yds 16 (3-41) · rec yds 20 (4-47) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Sean Tucker | TB | RUSH/REC | rush yds 15 (2-39) · rec yds 0 (0-18) · catches 0 (0-2) |
| Tez Johnson | TB | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-5) · rec yds 14 (0-46) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-4) · rec yds 45 (15-90) · catches 5 (2-8) |
| Cade Otton | TB | REC | rec yds 37 (11-77) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| David Sills | TB | REC | rec yds 6 (0-30) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Ted Hurst III | TB | REC | rec yds 5 (0-31) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Payne Durham | TB | REC | rec yds 5 (0-27) · catches 1 (0-2) |