Gametime

Washington @ Chicago

Tip-off 5:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for CHI

Sim
70%
Books
53%
ESPN model
47%
Median score
121-128
WAS - CHI
CHI -2.5
65%
sim cover rate
Total 244.5
60%
over · sim avg 250
Moneyline
-122
CHI · WAS +102

NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details

How the sim saw it

The sim has Chicago winning 69.6% of 5,000 games, against 53% from the books. The median score is Chicago 129, Washington 121. In the most typical game: Chicago leads by as many as 20 in the first half; Chicago leads 71-54 at the break. Washington's 11-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Jones puts Chicago ahead for good with 10:44 left in the 2nd. Young finds Davis 4 times. Jones goes 5 of 7 off Chicago's bench. Chicago leads by 14 at its high point in the 4th. Washington gets within 5. Mann scores last; final 129-120 Chicago.

Washington wins 1,521 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 15+ threes (it wins 49%), wins the turnover battle (38%) or gets 26+ from Davis (40%). The matchup to watch is Chicago's ball security against Washington's hands. Chicago covers -2.5 in 65% and the game goes over 244.5 in 60%.

Full breakdown

  1. Last time they met (Apr 9), Chicago won in Washington, 119-108.

    Tonight Chicago is without Nic Claxton.

    Tonight Washington is without Jamir Watkins.

    Chicago went 31-51 last season (22nd best record in the NBA).

    Washington went 17-65 last season (30th best record in the NBA).

    Chicago won the season series 3-0.

    Josh Giddey missed 2 of the 3 meetings.

    Matas Buzelis missed 2 of the 3 meetings.

    Isaac Okoro missed 2 of the 3 meetings.

    Jalen Smith missed 2 of the 3 meetings.

    Kyshawn George missed 2 of the 3 meetings.

    Alex Sarr missed 2 of the 3 meetings.

    Tre Johnson missed 3 of the 3 meetings.

    Chicago: gone: Nikola Vučević (now ORL), Ayo Dosunmu (now MIN); new: Caleb Wilson (no NBA minutes last season), Norman Powell (from MIA), Buddy Hield (from GSW), Tobe Awaka (no NBA minutes last season), Jaylin Sellers (no NBA minutes last season), Jordan Hawkins (from NOP), Dailyn Swain (rookie, #15 pick).

    Washington: new: Anthony Davis (from DAL), Trae Young (from ATL), Deandre Ayton (from LAL), Reece Beekman (no NBA minutes last season), Tre Mann (from CHA), Felix Okpara (no NBA minutes last season).

  2. Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):

    CHI: Wilson, Giddey, Powell, Buzelis, Okoro

    Bench: Jones, Smith, Williams, Miller, Collins, Hield, Awaka, Sellers (+2 under 8 min)

    Out: Claxton

    No NBA history: Swain (#15 pick, 8 min from past rookies)

    WAS: Davis, George, Young, Sarr, Coulibaly

    Bench: Carrington, Ayton, Johnson, Middleton, Champagnie, Riley, Gill (+3 under 8 min)

    Out: Dybantsa, Vukčević, Watkins

  3. Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +5.6 points vs their usual FG% against Norman Powell and +3.4 against Josh Giddey.

    The stoppers on threes: Bilal Coulibaly held shooters 1.7 points under their usual 3P%, Tre Jones held shooters 1.5 points under their usual 3P%.

    In the sim, Alex Sarr sees Powell on 12% of their shots.

  4. The matchup to watch: Chicago's ball security vs Washington's hands.

    Chicago turned it over on 14.0% of possessions last season (21st fewest).

    Washington forced turnovers on 12.6% (22nd most), with 8.0 steals (21st) and 5.5 blocks (5th) a game.

  5. Shot diets.

    Chicago: 44.3% of shots from three (8th), 36.7% at the rim (3rd).

    Washington: 40.3% of shots from three (20th), 29.2% at the rim (18th).

    Chicago's defense: 28th fewest rim attempts allowed, 23rd lowest opponent three-point % (36.8%).

    Washington's defense: 30th fewest rim attempts allowed, 24th lowest opponent three-point % (36.8%).

  6. Chicago's offense runs through Josh Giddey on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 7.2 a game last season, 15th most in the NBA.

    0.77 points per play (bottom 33%), turnover on 23% of them.

    When it goes to the roller: Chicago's roll men scored 1.06 (24th in the league). Jalen Smith alone: 1.15.

  7. Washington faced 17.1 of those a game (19th most) and ranked 27th defending them. Against the roll man: 6th.

    In the sim: 1.63 Giddey-to-Wilson baskets a game.

    With 12+ Giddey assists, Chicago wins 77.8%.

  8. Washington's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, the roll man. It ranked 30th, 30th, 6th, 11th in points per play on them.

    Chicago's defense ranked 21st, 11th, 10th, 26th against those same four.

  9. Where Washington can hit back:

    • Chicago was 29th defending post-ups. Alex Sarr ran 1.4 a game at 1.13 per play
    • Chicago was 26th defending the roll man. Alex Sarr ran 3.8 a game at 1.08 per play

  10. One check against real life:

    Josh Giddey scored 18 in his one game against Washington last season. In our 5,000 sims: 15.0.

  11. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • Chicago leads by as many as 20 in the first half; Chicago leads 71-54 at the break
    • Washington's 11-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
    • Jones puts Chicago ahead for good with 10:44 left in the 2nd
    • Young finds Davis 4 times
    • Jones goes 5 of 7 off Chicago's bench
    • Chicago leads by 14 at its high point in the 4th. Washington gets within 5. Mann scores last; final 129-120 Chicago

  12. How Washington wins (1,521 of the 5,000):

    • It makes threes: 13.7 a game in its wins, 11.7 in its losses. At 15 or more, it wins 49%
    • It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 38%
    • Davis scores 26 or more: then it wins 40%

  13. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Chicago wins 69.6%. The books (Draft Kings) have Chicago at 53%, ESPN's model at 47%.

    Median score: Chicago 129, Washington 121

    Chicago covers -2.5 in 65%

    Over 244.5 in 60%

    Leans:

    Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Trae Young assists line 11.5, sim 7.2; Trae Young pts+ast line 32.5, sim 24.3; Anthony Davis rebounds line 11.5, sim 8.9

    Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.3 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated

    • Jalen Smith under 21.5 pts+reb (94%, sim avg 13.4)
    • Jalen Smith under 8.5 rebounds (91%, sim avg 5.2)
    • Jalen Smith under 13.5 points (88%, sim avg 8.2)
    • Alex Sarr under 6.5 rebounds (77%, sim avg 4.9)

  14. Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.

Most typical game, play by play (WAS score first)
Quarter 1
Q1CHIIsaac Okoro scores at the rim (assist Josh Giddey)0-2
Q1WASAnthony Davis misses at the rim0-2
Q1CHINorman Powell scores three (assist Zach Collins)0-5
Q1WASAlex Sarr misses three0-5
Q1CHICaleb Wilson scores in the paint0-7
Q1WASKhris Middleton scores from midrange2-7
Q1CHIPatrick Williams misses three, offensive rebound2-7
Q1CHITre Jones scores at the rim2-9
Q1WASTrae Young scores at the rim (assist Anthony Davis)4-9
Q1CHICaleb Wilson turns it over4-9
Q1WASAnthony Davis goes to the line, makes 2 of 26-9
Q1CHICaleb Wilson misses in the paint6-9
Q1WASKyshawn George misses three6-9
Q1CHITre Jones misses three6-9
Q1WASWill Riley misses at the rim6-9
Q1CHIJosh Giddey misses in the paint6-9
Q1WASKhris Middleton turns it over6-9
Q1CHIIsaac Okoro scores in the paint (assist Caleb Wilson)6-11
Q1WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim (assist Justin Champagnie)8-11
Q1CHIPatrick Williams misses three8-11
Q1WASAnthony Davis misses in the paint8-11
Q1CHITobe Awaka misses at the rim8-11
Q1WASTre Johnson misses in the paint8-11
Q1CHIMatas Buzelis misses three, offensive rebound8-11
Q1CHIJosh Giddey turns it over8-11
Q1WASBilal Coulibaly scores at the rim (assist Trae Young), and one11-11
Q1CHIMatas Buzelis misses three11-11
Q1WASTre Johnson goes to the line, makes 1 of 212-11
Q1CHIMatas Buzelis misses three, offensive rebound12-11
Q1CHIJosh Giddey goes to the line, makes 0 of 212-11
Q1WASAnthony Gill misses three12-11
Q1CHIMatas Buzelis misses corner three, offensive rebound12-11
Q1CHICaleb Wilson misses three12-11
Q1WASTre Johnson misses three, offensive rebound12-11
Q1WASWill Riley scores three15-11
Q1CHIPatrick Williams misses at the rim, offensive rebound15-11
Q1CHILeonard Miller misses at the rim15-11
Q1WASAnthony Davis scores in the paint (assist Kyshawn George)17-11
Q1CHICaleb Wilson misses three17-11
Q1WASKhris Middleton misses three17-11
Q1CHIMatas Buzelis scores at the rim17-13
Q1WASTrae Young goes to the line, makes 2 of 219-13
Q1CHICaleb Wilson scores in the paint (assist Matas Buzelis)19-15
Q1WASKyshawn George scores in the paint21-15
Q1CHIJaylin Sellers goes to the line, makes 2 of 221-17
Q1WASKhris Middleton misses from midrange, offensive rebound21-17
Q1WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim23-17
Q1CHIIsaac Okoro scores in the paint23-19
Q1WASKyshawn George misses from midrange23-19
Q1CHIZach Collins goes to the line, makes 2 of 223-21
Q1WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim (assist Khris Middleton)25-21
Q1CHIPatrick Williams goes to the line, makes 2 of 225-23
Q1WASBilal Coulibaly misses in the paint25-23
Q1CHINorman Powell misses in the paint25-23
Q1WASReece Beekman scores in the paint (assist Kyshawn George), and one28-23
Q1CHITre Jones scores in the paint28-25
Q1WASKhris Middleton misses three, offensive rebound28-25
Q1WASAlex Sarr misses three28-25
Q1CHIJosh Giddey misses three, offensive rebound28-25
Q1CHIJalen Smith scores three (assist Isaac Okoro)28-28
Q1WASKyshawn George turns it over28-28
Q1CHIJosh Giddey turns it over28-28
Q1WASTrae Young misses three28-28
Quarter 2
Q2CHINorman Powell scores from midrange28-30
Q2WASKhris Middleton scores three (assist Trae Young)31-30
Q2CHIZach Collins misses corner three31-30
Q2WASBilal Coulibaly misses at the rim31-30
Q2CHITre Jones scores at the rim (assist Jalen Smith)31-32
Q2WASTrae Young turns it over31-32
Q2CHIJalen Smith scores three (assist Matas Buzelis)31-35
Q2WASAlex Sarr goes to the line, makes 1 of 232-35
Q2CHIJosh Giddey turns it over32-35
Q2WASAlex Sarr misses corner three32-35
Q2CHITre Jones goes to the line, makes 2 of 232-37
Q2WASAnthony Davis misses from midrange, offensive rebound32-37
Q2WASAnthony Davis misses at the rim, offensive rebound32-37
Q2WASKyshawn George scores in the paint34-37
Q2CHIMatas Buzelis misses corner three34-37
Q2WASDeandre Ayton scores at the rim36-37
Q2CHIJosh Giddey scores three36-40
Q2WASAlex Sarr turns it over36-40
Q2CHIBuddy Hield scores three36-43
Q2WASBilal Coulibaly misses in the paint, offensive rebound36-43
Q2WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim (assist Trae Young)38-43
Q2CHIJosh Giddey scores at the rim38-45
Q2WASBilal Coulibaly turns it over38-45
Q2CHIIsaac Okoro scores at the rim (assist Patrick Williams)38-47
Q2WASAnthony Davis misses at the rim38-47
Q2CHICaleb Wilson misses three, offensive rebound38-47
Q2CHIJordan Hawkins turns it over38-47
Q2WASAnthony Davis misses in the paint38-47
Q2CHINorman Powell scores corner three (assist Tre Jones)38-50
Q2WASTrae Young scores in the paint40-50
Q2CHICaleb Wilson scores at the rim (assist Norman Powell)40-52
Q2WASTre Johnson scores from midrange42-52
Q2CHIDailyn Swain misses at the rim42-52
Q2WASAlex Sarr misses in the paint42-52
Q2CHILeonard Miller goes to the line, makes 1 of 242-53
Q2CHITre Jones scores at the rim (assist Matas Buzelis)42-55
Q2WASAlex Sarr misses at the rim42-55
Q2CHIJosh Giddey scores at the rim42-57
Q2WASTrae Young turns it over42-57
Q2CHINorman Powell scores at the rim42-59
Q2WASAlex Sarr misses in the paint42-59
Q2CHITre Jones misses at the rim42-59
Q2WASTrae Young goes to the line, makes 2 of 244-59
Q2CHIBuddy Hield scores three (assist Tre Jones)44-62
Q2WASJustin Champagnie scores three47-62
Q2CHIPatrick Williams misses corner three47-62
Q2WASKyshawn George turns it over47-62
Q2CHIIsaac Okoro turns it over47-62
Q2WASBub Carrington misses three47-62
Q2CHINorman Powell scores at the rim (assist Tre Jones)47-64
Q2WASTrae Young scores from midrange (assist Kyshawn George)49-64
Q2CHIMatas Buzelis scores at the rim (assist Zach Collins)49-66
Q2WASTre Johnson misses three, offensive rebound49-66
Q2WASAnthony Davis turns it over49-66
Q2CHIJalen Smith scores corner three (assist Caleb Wilson)49-69
Q2WASJustin Champagnie scores three (assist Will Riley)52-69
Q2CHIDailyn Swain scores at the rim (assist Jalen Smith)52-71
Q2WASAnthony Davis scores from midrange54-71
Quarter 3
Q3CHIZach Collins scores corner three (assist Josh Giddey)54-74
Q3WASKyshawn George turns it over54-74
Q3CHIBuddy Hield scores three (assist Isaac Okoro)54-77
Q3WASTre Mann scores in the paint (assist Bub Carrington)56-77
Q3CHITobe Awaka scores in the paint (assist Tre Jones)56-79
Q3WASTrae Young scores from midrange58-79
Q3CHICaleb Wilson goes to the line, makes 2 of 258-81
Q3WASAnthony Davis turns it over58-81
Q3CHICaleb Wilson goes to the line, makes 1 of 258-82
Q3WASAnthony Davis goes to the line, makes 1 of 259-82
Q3WASBilal Coulibaly goes to the line, makes 1 of 260-82
Q3CHITre Jones goes to the line, makes 2 of 260-84
Q3WASDeandre Ayton turns it over60-84
Q3CHINorman Powell misses three60-84
Q3WASAlex Sarr turns it over60-84
Q3CHIIsaac Okoro misses at the rim60-84
Q3WASDeandre Ayton scores from midrange (assist Bub Carrington)62-84
Q3CHINorman Powell turns it over62-84
Q3WASAlex Sarr scores in the paint64-84
Q3CHICaleb Wilson scores from midrange64-86
Q3WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim66-86
Q3CHILeonard Miller turns it over66-86
Q3WASAlex Sarr misses in the paint66-86
Q3CHILeonard Miller misses three66-86
Q3WASWill Riley scores at the rim68-86
Q3CHIPatrick Williams scores three68-89
Q3WASKhris Middleton scores in the paint (assist Kyshawn George)70-89
Q3CHIZach Collins misses three70-89
Q3WASKhris Middleton scores three (assist Anthony Davis)73-89
Q3CHINorman Powell scores at the rim (assist Josh Giddey)73-91
Q3WASBilal Coulibaly misses at the rim73-91
Q3CHITre Jones goes to the line, makes 2 of 273-93
Q3WASTre Johnson scores corner three76-93
Q3CHINorman Powell misses three, offensive rebound76-93
Q3CHIJosh Giddey scores at the rim76-95
Q3WASAnthony Davis misses in the paint76-95
Q3CHIIsaac Okoro scores three (assist Tre Jones)76-98
Q3WASKhris Middleton misses three, offensive rebound76-98
Q3WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim (assist Trae Young)78-98
Q3CHIJosh Giddey scores three78-101
Q3WASTre Mann scores in the paint80-101
Q3CHIMatas Buzelis misses in the paint80-101
Q3WASKhris Middleton misses three80-101
Q3CHILeonard Miller misses three80-101
Q3WASAlex Sarr scores at the rim82-101
Q3CHINorman Powell misses three82-101
Q3WASBub Carrington scores three (assist Tre Mann), and one86-101
Q3CHINorman Powell misses in the paint86-101
Q3WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim (assist Trae Young), and one89-101
Q3CHIPatrick Williams scores in the paint89-103
Q3WASBub Carrington misses from midrange, offensive rebound89-103
Q3WASWill Riley misses at the rim, offensive rebound89-103
Q3WASAlex Sarr scores at the rim (assist Anthony Davis)91-103
Q3CHIPatrick Williams misses at the rim, offensive rebound91-103
Q3CHIJosh Giddey misses at the rim91-103
Q3WASReece Beekman scores at the rim93-103
Q3CHIJosh Giddey turns it over93-103
Q3WASBilal Coulibaly misses at the rim93-103
Quarter 4
Q4CHIDailyn Swain turns it over93-103
Q4WASBilal Coulibaly scores at the rim95-103
Q4CHIJosh Giddey scores at the rim95-105
Q4WASAlex Sarr misses three95-105
Q4CHICaleb Wilson scores three (assist Zach Collins)95-108
Q4WASAnthony Davis scores at the rim (assist Trae Young)97-108
Q4CHIMatas Buzelis goes to the line, makes 2 of 297-110
Q4WASTrae Young goes to the line, makes 2 of 299-110
Q4CHIJosh Giddey misses in the paint99-110
Q4WASBilal Coulibaly misses three99-110
Q4CHIJalen Smith goes to the line, makes 1 of 299-111
Q4WASTre Johnson misses three99-111
Q4CHIJordan Hawkins misses from midrange99-111
Q4WASAnthony Gill goes to the line, makes 2 of 2101-111
Q4CHITre Jones scores at the rim (assist Patrick Williams)101-113
Q4WASKyshawn George turns it over101-113
Q4CHIJalen Smith goes to the line, makes 2 of 2101-115
Q4WASTrae Young goes to the line, makes 2 of 2103-115
Q4CHIJalen Smith misses at the rim, offensive rebound103-115
Q4CHINorman Powell misses three, offensive rebound103-115
Q4CHITobe Awaka scores at the rim (assist Jalen Smith)103-117
Q4WASKhris Middleton misses in the paint103-117
Q4CHIJalen Smith misses from midrange103-117
Q4WASTre Mann scores in the paint105-117
Q4CHIMatas Buzelis turns it over105-117
Q4WASKyshawn George goes to the line, makes 2 of 2107-117
Q4CHINorman Powell misses in the paint107-117
Q4WASTrae Young scores three (assist Alex Sarr)110-117
Q4CHICaleb Wilson scores three (assist Josh Giddey)110-120
Q4WASKyshawn George turns it over110-120
Q4CHIJaylin Sellers misses at the rim110-120
Q4WASAnthony Gill scores at the rim112-120
Q4CHIJosh Giddey misses in the paint112-120
Q4WASAnthony Davis misses in the paint112-120
Q4CHIJosh Giddey misses in the paint112-120
Q4WASTrae Young scores three115-120
Q4CHITre Jones goes to the line, makes 1 of 2115-121
Q4WASAlex Sarr misses three115-121
Q4CHINorman Powell misses from midrange115-121
Q4WASBub Carrington misses in the paint115-121
Q4CHIBuddy Hield scores three (assist Tre Jones)115-124
Q4WASBub Carrington scores in the paint117-124
Q4CHIMatas Buzelis goes to the line, makes 1 of 2117-125
Q4CHIZach Collins scores in the paint (assist Patrick Williams)117-127
Q4WASKhris Middleton misses in the paint117-127
Q4CHIPatrick Williams scores at the rim117-129
Q4WASDeandre Ayton turns it over117-129
Q4CHIJosh Giddey misses at the rim117-129
Q4WASTre Johnson misses corner three117-129
Q4CHIBuddy Hield misses three, offensive rebound117-129
Q4CHIJordan Hawkins turns it over117-129
Q4WASAlex Sarr misses three117-129
Q4CHIMatas Buzelis turns it over117-129
Q4WASTre Mann scores three (assist Will Riley)120-129

Top 10 prop ideas

The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sat Oct 24, 9:17 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.

PlayerIdeaSimPriceResult
Jalen Smithunder 21.5 pts+reb94%-12517 ✓
Jalen Smithunder 8.5 rebounds91%-1313 ✓
Jalen Smithunder 13.5 points88%-11714 ✗
Alex Sarrunder 6.5 rebounds77%-1192 ✓
Kyshawn Georgeunder 13.5 points74%-12322 ✗
Matas Buzelisunder 2.5 threes68%-1872 ✓
Alex Sarrunder 1.5 threes68%-2020 ✓
Jalen Smithunder 1.5 threes68%-1232 ✗
Josh Giddeyover 19.5 pts+reb66%-12017 ✗
Josh Giddeyover 12.5 points65%-1199 ✗

All player props

Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.

PlayerMarketLineSim avgSim overLeanSim + you
Trae Youngnew teamassists11.57.25%under 95%
Jalen Smithpts+reb21.513.46%under 94%
Jalen Smithrebounds8.55.29%under 91%
Trae Youngnew teampts+ast32.524.311%under 89%
Jalen Smithpoints13.58.212%under 88%
Anthony Davisnew teamrebounds11.58.917%under 83%
Anthony Davisnew teampts+reb35.530.021%under 79%
Alex Sarrrebounds6.54.923%under 77%
Trae Youngnew teampoints21.517.124%under 76%
Kyshawn Georgepoints13.510.526%under 74%
Matas Buzelisthrees2.52.032%under 68%
Alex Sarrthrees1.51.132%under 68%
Jalen Smiththrees1.51.132%under 68%
Anthony Davisnew teampoints23.521.134%under 66%
Josh Giddeypts+reb19.522.366%over 66%
Josh Giddeypoints12.515.065%over 65%
Caleb Wilsonnew teamthrees1.52.264%over 64%
Josh Giddeypts+ast22.524.964%over 64%
Trae Youngnew teamthrees2.52.237%under 63%
Matas Buzelispoints15.513.937%under 63%
Matas Buzelisrebounds5.54.937%under 63%
Matas Buzelispts+reb20.518.837%under 63%
Norman Powellnew teampoints20.518.737%under 63%
Alex Sarrpts+reb18.517.340%under 60%
Josh Giddeyrebounds6.57.360%over 60%
Caleb Wilsonnew teampoints17.519.359%over 59%
Caleb Wilsonnew teamrebounds5.55.343%under 57%
Caleb Wilsonnew teampts+reb23.524.654%over 54%
Alex Sarrpoints11.512.454%over 54%
Norman Powellnew teamthrees2.52.546%under 54%
Josh Giddeyassists9.59.954%over 54%
Kyshawn Georgethrees1.51.649%under 51%
Josh Giddeythrees1.51.750%over 50%