Memphis @ Utah
Tip-off 6:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for MEM
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Memphis winning 52.2% of 5,000 games, against 50% from the books. The median score is Utah 127, Memphis 128. In the most typical game: Utah leads by as many as 9 in the first half; tied 57-57 at the break. Utah's 10-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing. Prosper puts Memphis ahead for good with 9:41 left in the 3rd. Collier finds J. Jackson 4 times. Spencer goes 4 of 7 off Memphis's bench. Memphis leads by 12 at its high point in the 4th. Utah gets within 1. Collier scores last; final 127-126 Memphis.
Utah wins 2,391 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 18+ threes (it wins 72%), wins the turnover battle (67%) or gets 29+ from Markkanen (60%). The matchup to watch is Utah's ball security against Memphis's hands. Memphis covers -1.5 in 50% and the game goes over 237.5 in 80%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Apr 10), Utah won in Utah, 147-101.
Tonight Utah is without Jusuf Nurkić.
Tonight Memphis is without Zach Edey.
Utah went 22-60 last season (26th best record in the NBA).
Memphis went 25-57 last season (25th best record in the NBA).
Utah won the season series 2-2.
Lauri Markkanen missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Keyonte George missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Svi Mykhailiuk missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Cedric Coward missed 3 of the 4 meetings.
Javon Small missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
GG Jackson missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Utah: gone: Cody Williams (now MIN); new: Jaren Jackson Jr. (from MEM), Darryn Peterson (no NBA minutes last season), Jaxson Hayes (from LAL), Josh Okogie (from HOU), Josh Green (from CHA), Tony Bradley (from IND), Kobe Bufkin (from LAL).
Memphis: gone: Jaren Jackson Jr. (now UTA), Santi Aldama (now DAL), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (now PHI), Jock Landale (now ATL); new: Cameron Boozer (no NBA minutes last season), Jerami Grant (from POR), Kris Murray (from POR), Isaiah Stewart (from DET), Quinten Post (from GSW).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
UTA: Markkanen, George, J. Jackson, Peterson, Bailey
Bench: Collier, Mykhailiuk, Sensabaugh, Filipowski, Hayes, Okogie, Green (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Alexander, Nurkić
MEM: Boozer, Grant, Wells, Coward, Jerome
Bench: Mashack, Spencer, Murray, Stewart, Small, Pippen, G. Jackson, Prosper, Hendricks, Post
Out: Edey, López
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +2.5 points vs their usual FG% against Jerami Grant and +2.3 against Keyonte George.
The stoppers on threes: Lauri Markkanen held shooters 5.8 points under their usual 3P%, Jaylen Wells held shooters 2.1 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Lauri Markkanen sees Grant on 22% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Utah's ball security vs Memphis's hands.
Utah turned it over on 14.3% of possessions last season (23rd fewest).
Memphis forced turnovers on 14.4% (8th most), with 8.8 steals (10th) and 4.8 blocks (16th) a game.
Shot diets.
Utah: 40.2% of shots from three (21st), 28.8% at the rim (23rd).
Memphis: 43.6% of shots from three (10th), 27.1% at the rim (27th).
Utah's defense: 4th fewest rim attempts allowed, 27th lowest opponent three-point % (37.2%).
Memphis's defense: 21st fewest rim attempts allowed, 21st lowest opponent three-point % (36.4%).
Memphis's offense runs through Cam Spencer on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 3.6 a game last season, 66th most in the NBA.
1.06 points per play (top 7%), turnover on 12% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Memphis's roll men scored 1.12 (13th in the league). Isaiah Stewart alone: 1.04.
Utah faced 13.1 of those a game (29th most) and ranked 28th defending them. Against the roll man: 27th.
In the sim: 0.60 Spencer-to-Boozer baskets a game.
With 5+ Spencer assists, Memphis wins 57.2%.
Utah's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 20th, 12th, 10th, 18th in points per play on them.
Memphis's defense ranked 19th, 15th, 25th, 30th against those same four.
Lauri Markkanen in one split:
Cuts: 1.56 points per play (top 6%), 2.4 a game.
Off-screen shots: 1.02 points per play (top 40%), 4.5 a game.
Memphis's defense: 27th against off-screen shots, 30th against cuts.
Where Utah can hit back:
- Memphis was 30th defending cuts. Lauri Markkanen ran 2.4 a game at 1.56 per play
- Memphis was 27th defending isolation. Keyonte George ran 3.0 a game at 0.87 per play
One check against real life:
Cam Spencer scored 13.7 points in his 3 games against Utah last season, 20 of them on Dec 12. In our 5,000 sims: 6.6.
Lauri Markkanen scored 26 in his one game against Memphis last season. In our 5,000 sims: 23.5.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Utah leads by as many as 9 in the first half; tied 57-57 at the break
- Utah's 10-0 run in the 2nd quarter is the biggest swing
- Prosper puts Memphis ahead for good with 9:41 left in the 3rd
- Collier finds J. Jackson 4 times
- Spencer goes 4 of 7 off Memphis's bench
- Memphis leads by 12 at its high point in the 4th. Utah gets within 1. Collier scores last; final 127-126 Memphis
How Utah wins (2,391 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.8 a game in its wins, 13.6 in its losses. At 18 or more, it wins 72%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 67%
- Markkanen scores 29 or more: then it wins 60%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Memphis wins 52.2%. The books (Draft Kings) have Memphis at 50%, ESPN's model at 41%.
Median score: Utah 127, Memphis 128
Memphis covers -1.5 in 50%
Over 237.5 in 80%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Cameron Boozer rebounds line 9.5, sim 7.5; Darryn Peterson threes line 1.5, sim 0.9; Darryn Peterson points line 12.5, sim 10.6
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.0 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Ty Jerome under 33.5 pts+ast (98%, sim avg 19.9)
- Ty Jerome under 29.5 pts+reb (96%, sim avg 18.0)
- Ty Jerome under 26.5 points (95%, sim avg 15.6)
- Ty Jerome under 6.5 assists (86%, sim avg 4.3)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (MEM score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Mon Oct 26, 8:12 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Jerome | under 33.5 pts+ast | 98% | -123 | |
| Ty Jerome | under 29.5 pts+reb | 96% | -116 | |
| Ty Jerome | under 26.5 points | 95% | -120 | |
| Ty Jerome | under 6.5 assists | 86% | -123 | |
| Ty Jerome | under 3.5 threes | 86% | -170 | |
| Ty Jerome | under 3.5 rebounds | 79% | -144 | |
| Isaiah Collier | over 4.5 assists | 78% | -115 | |
| Jaylen Wells | under 15.5 pts+reb | 72% | -127 | |
| Cedric Coward | under 16.5 pts+ast | 71% | -127 | |
| Jaylen Wells | under 13.5 pts+ast | 69% | -123 |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Jerome | pts+ast | 33.5 | 19.9 | 2% | under 98% | |
| Ty Jerome | pts+reb | 29.5 | 18.0 | 4% | under 96% | |
| Ty Jerome | points | 26.5 | 15.6 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Ty Jerome | assists | 6.5 | 4.3 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Ty Jerome | threes | 3.5 | 2.0 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Ty Jerome | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.3 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Isaiah Collier | assists | 4.5 | 6.5 | 78% | over 78% | |
| Cameron Boozernew team | rebounds | 9.5 | 7.5 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.9 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Jaylen Wells | pts+reb | 15.5 | 12.6 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Cedric Coward | pts+ast | 16.5 | 13.8 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Jaylen Wells | pts+ast | 13.5 | 11.3 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Isaiah Collier | pts+ast | 11.5 | 14.0 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Cedric Coward | pts+reb | 18.5 | 16.1 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | points | 12.5 | 10.6 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | pts+ast | 15.5 | 13.5 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | assists | 3.5 | 2.9 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Cedric Coward | points | 13.5 | 11.6 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | pts+reb | 16.5 | 14.8 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Jaylen Wells | points | 11.5 | 10.0 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Cameron Boozernew team | pts+reb | 26.5 | 24.2 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Jaylen Wells | assists | 1.5 | 1.3 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Ace Bailey | pts+reb | 17.5 | 15.9 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Cedric Coward | assists | 2.5 | 2.2 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Ace Bailey | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.0 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Cam Spencer | points | 7.5 | 6.6 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | assists | 2.5 | 2.2 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Jerami Grantnew team | points | 11.5 | 13.6 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.3 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Cedric Coward | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Keyonte George | assists | 7.5 | 7.0 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | assists | 2.5 | 2.3 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | pts+ast | 19.5 | 21.4 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Cameron Boozernew team | assists | 4.5 | 4.2 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Cameron Boozernew team | threes | 1.5 | 2.0 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | points | 17.5 | 19.1 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | rebounds | 7.5 | 7.2 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | threes | 2.5 | 3.0 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Ace Bailey | points | 12.5 | 11.9 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Cameron Boozernew team | points | 17.5 | 16.7 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Keyonte George | pts+reb | 23.5 | 22.8 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Keyonte George | threes | 2.5 | 2.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Isaiah Collier | points | 6.5 | 7.5 | 56% | over 56% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | rebounds | 5.5 | 5.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Cameron Boozernew team | pts+ast | 21.5 | 20.9 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Keyonte George | points | 19.5 | 19.1 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Keyonte George | pts+ast | 26.5 | 26.0 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Jerami Grantnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | pts+ast | 24.5 | 25.8 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | pts+reb | 29.5 | 30.7 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Cedric Coward | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Jaylen Wells | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 24.5 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | points | 22.5 | 23.5 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Jaylen Wells | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Keyonte George | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Ace Bailey | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 49% | under 51% |