Los Angeles @ Utah
Tip-off 2:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for LAL
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Los Angeles winning 69.0% of 5,000 games, against 68% from the books. The median score is Utah 118, Los Angeles 125. In the most typical game: Los Angeles leads by as many as 17 in the first half; Los Angeles leads 64-49 at the break. Utah's 9-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Grimes puts Los Angeles ahead for good with 9:44 left in the 2nd. George finds Filipowski 3 times. Dončić finds Kessler 3 times. Filipowski goes 8 of 9 off Utah's bench. Los Angeles leads by 12 at its high point in the 4th. Utah gets within 4. Dončić scores last; final 126-118 Los Angeles.
Utah wins 1,550 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 16+ threes (it wins 49%), wins the turnover battle (45%) or gets 27+ from Markkanen (41%). The matchup to watch is Utah's ball security against Los Angeles's hands. Los Angeles covers -6.5 in 54% and the game goes over 237.5 in 62%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Apr 12), Los Angeles won in Los Angeles, 131-107.
Tonight Utah is without Jusuf Nurkić.
Utah went 22-60 last season (26th best record in the NBA).
Los Angeles went 53-29 last season (6th best record in the NBA).
Los Angeles won the season series 4-0.
Lauri Markkanen missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Kyle Filipowski missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Austin Reaves missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Jarred Vanderbilt missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Bronny James missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Utah: gone: Cody Williams (now MIN); new: Darryn Peterson (no NBA minutes last season), Jaren Jackson Jr. (from MEM), Jaxson Hayes (from LAL), Josh Okogie (from HOU), Josh Green (from CHA), Tony Bradley (from IND), Harrison Ingram (from SAS).
Los Angeles: gone: LeBron James (now PHI), Deandre Ayton (now WAS), Rui Hachimura (now LAC), Marcus Smart (now HOU), Jaxson Hayes (now UTA); new: Walker Kessler (from UTA), Quentin Grimes (from PHI), Ziaire Williams (from BKN), Collin Sexton (from CHA), Sandro Mamukelashvili (from TOR), Matisse Thybulle (from POR), Jaden Hardy (from WAS), Kevon Looney (from NOP), Arthur Kaluma (no NBA minutes last season), AK Okereke (no NBA minutes last season).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
UTA: Markkanen, George, Peterson, Jackson, Bailey
Bench: Collier, Mykhailiuk, Sensabaugh, Filipowski, Hayes, Okogie (+4 under 8 min)
Out: Alexander, Nurkić
LAL: Dončić, Reaves, Kessler, Grimes, LaRavia
Bench: Williams, Sexton, Mamukelashvili, Thybulle, Vanderbilt, Hardy, Looney (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Carr, Thiero
No NBA history: Kaluma (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies), Okereke (undrafted, 2 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +2.3 points vs their usual FG% against Keyonte George and +1.6 against Austin Reaves.
The stoppers on threes: Lauri Markkanen held shooters 5.8 points under their usual 3P%, Luka Dončić held shooters 4.7 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Austin Reaves sees George on 24% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Utah's ball security vs Los Angeles's hands.
Utah turned it over on 14.3% of possessions last season (23rd fewest).
Los Angeles forced turnovers on 13.9% (11th most), with 8.5 steals (14th) and 4.3 blocks (22nd) a game.
Shot diets.
Utah: 40.2% of shots from three (21st), 28.8% at the rim (23rd).
Los Angeles: 39.4% of shots from three (22nd), 29.2% at the rim (20th).
Utah's defense: 4th fewest rim attempts allowed, 27th lowest opponent three-point % (37.2%).
Los Angeles's defense: 17th fewest rim attempts allowed, 9th lowest opponent three-point % (35.2%).
Los Angeles's offense runs through Luka Dončić on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 10.8 a game last season, most in the NBA.
1.04 points per play (top 10%), turnover on 13% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Los Angeles's roll men scored 1.17 (7th in the league). Sandro Mamukelashvili alone: 1.02.
Utah faced 13.1 of those a game (29th most) and ranked 28th defending them. Against the roll man: 27th.
In the sim: 1.25 Dončić-to-Reaves baskets a game (last season: 1.05).
With 9+ Dončić assists, Los Angeles wins 77.3%.
Utah's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 20th, 12th, 10th, 18th in points per play on them.
Los Angeles's defense ranked 6th, 8th, 8th, 29th against those same four.
Lauri Markkanen in one split:
Cuts: 1.56 points per play (top 6%), 2.4 a game.
Off-screen shots: 1.02 points per play (top 40%), 4.5 a game.
Los Angeles's defense: 1st against off-screen shots, 29th against cuts.
Where Utah can hit back:
- Los Angeles was 30th defending the roll man. Lauri Markkanen ran 2.1 a game at 0.85 per play
- Los Angeles was 29th defending cuts. Lauri Markkanen ran 2.4 a game at 1.56 per play
One check against real life:
Luka Dončić scored 38.3 points in his 3 games against Utah last season, 45 of them on Dec 18. In our 5,000 sims: 34.6.
Lauri Markkanen scored 25.5 points in his 2 games against Los Angeles last season, 31 of them on Nov 18. In our 5,000 sims: 21.5.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Los Angeles leads by as many as 17 in the first half; Los Angeles leads 64-49 at the break
- Utah's 9-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- Grimes puts Los Angeles ahead for good with 9:44 left in the 2nd
- George finds Filipowski 3 times
- Dončić finds Kessler 3 times
- Filipowski goes 8 of 9 off Utah's bench
- Los Angeles leads by 12 at its high point in the 4th. Utah gets within 4. Dončić scores last; final 126-118 Los Angeles
How Utah wins (1,550 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.0 a game in its wins, 12.7 in its losses. At 16 or more, it wins 49%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 45%
- Markkanen scores 27 or more: then it wins 41%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Los Angeles wins 69.0%. The books (Draft Kings) have Los Angeles at 68%, ESPN's model at 62%.
Median score: Utah 118, Los Angeles 125
Los Angeles covers -6.5 in 54%
Over 237.5 in 62%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Jaxson Hayes rebounds line 6.5, sim 3.0; Jaxson Hayes pts+reb line 13.5, sim 7.2; Walker Kessler pts+reb line 27.5, sim 18.7
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.2 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Isaiah Collier over 4.5 assists (78%, sim avg 6.5)
- Austin Reaves under 29.5 pts+ast (75%, sim avg 25.1)
- Austin Reaves under 28.5 pts+reb (74%, sim avg 24.3)
- Austin Reaves under 23.5 points (71%, sim avg 20.2)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (LAL score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Sun Oct 25, 8:06 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Collier | over 4.5 assists | 78% | -128 | 6 ✓ |
| Austin Reaves | under 29.5 pts+ast | 75% | -115 | 33 ✗ |
| Austin Reaves | under 28.5 pts+reb | 74% | -124 | 30 ✗ |
| Austin Reaves | under 23.5 points | 71% | -119 | 29 ✗ |
| Keyonte George | under 26.5 pts+ast | 68% | -120 | 34 ✗ |
| Keyonte George | under 23.5 pts+reb | 67% | -124 | 33 ✗ |
| Luka Dončić | over 3.5 threes | 66% | -131 | 8 ✓ |
| Keyonte George | over 1.5 threes | 66% | -180 | 2 ✓ |
| Austin Reaves | under 5.5 assists | 65% | -146 | 4 ✓ |
| Lauri Markkanen | under 30.5 pts+reb | 65% | -115 | 35 ✗ |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Hayesnew team | rebounds | 6.5 | 3.0 | 3% | under 97% | |
| Jaxson Hayesnew team | pts+reb | 13.5 | 7.2 | 5% | under 95% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | pts+reb | 27.5 | 18.7 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | points | 16.5 | 9.4 | 6% | under 94% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | pts+reb | 8.5 | 4.5 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.6 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 1.3 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.8 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Jaxson Hayesnew team | points | 6.5 | 4.2 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Matisse Thybullenew team | points | 5.5 | 3.2 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | rebounds | 6.5 | 4.8 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Ziaire Williamsnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.4 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Isaiah Collier | assists | 4.5 | 6.5 | 78% | over 78% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | pts+ast | 16.5 | 12.7 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | pts+reb | 17.5 | 13.9 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | pts+reb | 14.5 | 11.4 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Austin Reaves | pts+ast | 29.5 | 25.1 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Austin Reaves | pts+reb | 28.5 | 24.3 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | points | 12.5 | 9.8 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.6 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Austin Reaves | points | 23.5 | 20.2 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Ziaire Williamsnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.1 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Keyonte George | pts+ast | 26.5 | 23.8 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Walker Kesslernew team | rebounds | 10.5 | 9.3 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvilinew team | points | 9.5 | 7.9 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Keyonte George | pts+reb | 23.5 | 20.8 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Luka Dončić | threes | 3.5 | 4.5 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Keyonte George | threes | 1.5 | 2.2 | 66% | over 66% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | assists | 3.5 | 2.9 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Ziaire Williamsnew team | pts+reb | 11.5 | 10.1 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | pts+reb | 24.5 | 22.2 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Austin Reaves | assists | 5.5 | 4.8 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | pts+reb | 30.5 | 27.9 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Keyonte George | points | 19.5 | 17.5 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | points | 23.5 | 21.5 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Austin Reaves | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.0 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Luka Dončić | rebounds | 7.5 | 7.0 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.2 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Darryn Petersonnew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.1 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | assists | 1.5 | 2.0 | 60% | over 60% | |
| Ace Bailey | pts+reb | 15.5 | 14.4 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Luka Dončić | assists | 7.5 | 7.0 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Keyonte George | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.3 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Austin Reaves | threes | 2.5 | 2.3 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Luka Dončić | points | 32.5 | 34.6 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Luka Dončić | pts+reb | 39.5 | 41.6 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Ace Bailey | pts+ast | 13.5 | 12.7 | 42% | under 58% | |
| Isaiah Collier | points | 6.5 | 7.7 | 57% | over 57% | |
| Ace Bailey | points | 11.5 | 11.0 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Ace Bailey | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.4 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.4 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | rebounds | 6.5 | 6.3 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Ace Bailey | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | pts+reb | 14.5 | 14.3 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Keyonte George | assists | 6.5 | 6.3 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Luka Dončić | pts+ast | 40.5 | 41.7 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | points | 17.5 | 17.4 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | pts+ast | 13.5 | 13.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | pts+ast | 19.5 | 19.4 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Quentin Grimesnew team | points | 10.5 | 11.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Ziaire Williamsnew team | points | 7.5 | 7.7 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.new team | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Lauri Markkanen | threes | 2.5 | 2.7 | 50% | over 50% |