GB @ DET
Kickoff 1:25 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for DET
NFL backtest: the books beat this sim on every period. Read it as context, not a bet. Details
Out: Cade Mays, Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, Ben Bartch, Devin White, Tom Kennedy, Zaire Franklin, Luke Musgrave, Micah Parsons, Jonathan Ford, Javon Hargrave, Skyy Moore
How the sim saw it
The sim has the Lions winning 66.0% of 5,000 games, against 62% from the books. The median score is Lions 27, Packers 21. In the most typical game: At the half: Lions 14, Packers 7. Biggest leads: Lions by 14, Packers by 7. Q3: Jordan Love to Bo Melton, 20 yards for the longest score of the day. Turnovers: Packers 1, Lions 1. 0 lead changes. Final: Lions 28-21.
The Packers win 1,679 of the 5,000. Their chances rise when Jordan Love throws for 313+ (they win 55%), with no interceptions (38%) or when they run for 116+ (61%). The Lions cover -3 in 61% and the game goes over 53.5 in 38%. Typical lines: Jared Goff: 252 passing yards; Jordan Love: 252 passing yards; Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6.6 catches for 65 yards; Christian Watson: 4.3 catches for 61 yards.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (2026 week 7), the Lions won 20-17 in Detroit.
The Lions are 4-2 this season.
The Packers are 4-3 this season.
Out tonight, starters only: Cade Mays, Brian Branch, Ben Bartch, Zaire Franklin.
Who's in the sim:
DET: QB Jared Goff
Targets: Brown 27%, LaPorta 17%, Williams 16%, Gibbs 16%
Carries: Gibbs 27, Vaki 2
GB: QB Jordan Love
Targets: Watson 22%, Kraft 20%, Golden 17%, Smith 14%
Carries: Strong 8, Lloyd 6
Flagged: Tyler Conklin (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); DeAndre Carter (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Jonnu Smith (new to the team, role scaled to 90%); Bo Melton (questionable, role scaled to 70%); Kaleb Johnson (new to the team, role scaled to 90%)
Who gets hunted: Jordan Love.
The Packers line has given up a sack on 4.9% of dropbacks (24th most). The Lions get home on 7.3% (7th most).
Down the field, the Lions allow 41.7% completions on throws of 20+ air yards (10th most in the league).
The matchup: how each team moves the ball.
The Lions: run-leaning on early downs (12th in pass rate over expected), 7.1 yards per dropback (7th), 4.4 per carry (9th). The Packers defense: 5th against the pass, 14th against the run.
The Packers: pass-leaning on early downs (5th in pass rate over expected), 6.6 yards per dropback (14th), 3.2 per carry (32nd). The Lions defense: 17th against the pass, 15th against the run.
The Lions engine: play-action. 25.6% of their throws (2nd most), 8.2 yards per attempt (16th).
The Packers rank 6th defending play-action (6.0 yards per attempt allowed).
Amon-Ra St. Brown in one split:
Play-action: 11.8 yards per target on 12 targets (top 39% of receivers).
The Packers rank 6th against play-action.
Where the Packers hit back:
- The Lions are 4th worst defending play-action (9.3 yards per attempt). Christian Watson sees the most of those targets.
- The Lions are 10th worst defending deep shots (41.7% completed). Matthew Golden sees the most of those targets.
One check against real life:
Jared Goff threw for 303 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 255.
Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 9 for 153. The sims: 6.6 for 70.
Jordan Love threw for 274 yards in the last meeting. In our 5,000 sims: 255.
Christian Watson caught 5 for 57. The sims: 4.3 for 67.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- At the half: Lions 14, Packers 7
- Biggest leads: Lions by 14, Packers by 7
- Q3: Jordan Love to Bo Melton, 20 yards for the longest score of the day
- Turnovers: Packers 1, Lions 1
- 0 lead changes. Final: Lions 28-21
How the Packers win (1,679 of the 5,000):
- Jordan Love throws for 313+: then they win 55%
- No interceptions: 38%, vs 27% with one or more
- 116+ rushing yards: 61%
Across all 5,000 sims:
The Lions win 66.0%. The books (Draft Kings) have them at 62%.
Median score: Lions 27, Packers 21
The Lions cover -3 in 61%
Over 53.5 in 38%
Typical lines:
- Jared Goff: 252 passing yards
- Jordan Love: 252 passing yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6.6 catches for 65 yards
- Christian Watson: 4.3 catches for 61 yards
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): out of sample the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.653 vs 0.625), and no spread or total rule made money. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Player projections
Median, with the 10th-90th percentile range.
| Player | Team | Role | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | pass yds 252 (177-338) · pass TD 2 (0-3) · rush yds 5 (0-20) |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RUSH/REC | rush yds 124 (69-191) · rec yds 31 (9-63) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Sione Vaki | DET | RUSH/REC | rush yds 4 (0-18) · rec yds 0 (0-15) · catches 0 (0-1) |
| Jameson Williams | DET | RUSH/REC | rush yds 0 (0-9) · rec yds 43 (12-92) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Jacob Saylors | DET | RUSH | rush yds 0 (0-5) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | REC | rec yds 65 (27-116) · catches 6 (3-10) |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | REC | rec yds 42 (14-86) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Tyler Conklin | DET | REC | rec yds 16 (0-44) · catches 2 (0-4) |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET | REC | rec yds 11 (0-41) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| Brock Wright | DET | REC | rec yds 7 (0-27) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| DeAndre Carter | DET | REC | rec yds 0 (0-18) · catches 0 (0-2) |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | pass yds 252 (168-347) · pass TD 2 (0-3) · rush yds 11 (0-32) |
| Pierre Strong | GB | RUSH/REC | rush yds 25 (6-56) · rec yds 10 (0-32) · catches 1 (0-3) |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | RUSH/REC | rush yds 15 (1-42) · rec yds 3 (0-20) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Kaleb Johnson | GB | RUSH | rush yds 14 (1-37) |
| Savion Williams | GB | RUSH/REC | rush yds 3 (0-15) · rec yds 4 (0-24) · catches 1 (0-2) |
| Christian Watson | GB | REC | rec yds 61 (19-122) · catches 4 (2-7) |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | REC | rec yds 51 (17-101) · catches 5 (2-7) |
| Matthew Golden | GB | REC | rec yds 42 (9-95) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Jonnu Smith | GB | REC | rec yds 25 (5-59) · catches 3 (1-6) |
| Josh Whyle | GB | REC | rec yds 11.5 (0-37) · catches 2 (0-3) |
| Bo Melton | GB | REC | rec yds 5 (0-31.1) · catches 1 (0-2) |