Phoenix @ Oklahoma City

Tip-off 5:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for OKC

Sim

87%

Books

77%

ESPN model

81%

Median score

101-117

PHX - OKC

OKC -10.5

67%

sim cover rate

Total 220.5

44%

over · sim avg 218

Moneyline

-410

OKC · PHX +320

NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details

How the sim saw it

The sim has Oklahoma City winning 86.7% of 5,000 games, against 77% from the books. The median score is Oklahoma City 117, Phoenix 101. In the most typical game: Oklahoma City leads by as many as 5 in the first half; tied 59-59 at the break. Oklahoma City's 9-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing. Holmgren puts Oklahoma City ahead for good with 3:20 left in the 3rd. Gilgeous-Alexander finds Holmgren 4 times. McCain goes 7 of 12 off Oklahoma City's bench. Oklahoma City leads by 20 at its high point in the 4th. Phoenix gets within 10. Booker scores last; final 117-100 Oklahoma City.

Phoenix wins 666 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 16+ threes (it wins 27%), wins the turnover battle (26%) or gets 29+ from Booker (22%). The matchup to watch is Oklahoma City's ball security against Phoenix's hands. Oklahoma City covers -10.5 in 67% and the game goes over 220.5 in 44%.

Full breakdown

Last time they met (Apr 12), Phoenix won in Oklahoma City, 135-103.
Tonight Oklahoma City is without Nikola Topić, Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams.
Tonight Phoenix is without Mark Williams.
Oklahoma City went 64-18 last season (best record in the NBA).
Phoenix went 45-37 last season (13th best record in the NBA).
Oklahoma City won the season series 3-2.
Isaiah Hartenstein missed 4 of the 5 meetings.
Brooks Barnhizer missed 4 of the 5 meetings.
Devin Booker missed 3 of the 5 meetings.
Oklahoma City: gone: Luguentz Dort (now ATL), Isaiah Joe (now DET), Aaron Wiggins (now ATL); new: Jared McCain (from PHI), Micah Peavy (from NOP), Aday Mara (no NBA minutes last season), Josh Dix (no NBA minutes last season), Bennett Stirtz (no NBA minutes last season).
Phoenix: gone: Royce O'Neale (now CHA), Grayson Allen (now CHA); new: Miles Bridges (from CHA), Luke Kennard (from ATL), Pat Spencer (from GSW), Drew Timme (from LAL), Duop Reath (from POR).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
OKC: Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, Mitchell, Hartenstein, Caruso
Bench: McCain, J. Williams, Peavy, Mara, K. Williams (+3 under 8 min)
Out: Sorber, Topić, Wallace, J. Williams
No NBA history: Dix (undrafted, 3 min from past rookies)
PHX: Booker, Bridges, Brooks, Gillespie, Green
Bench: Goodwin, Kennard, Dunn, Spencer, Bouyea (+5 under 8 min)
Out: M. Williams
Maybe: Ighodaro (20% to play, minutes scaled)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +3.8 points vs their usual FG% against Jared McCain and +1.9 against Collin Gillespie.
The stoppers on threes: Collin Gillespie held shooters 3.1 points under their usual 3P%, Chet Holmgren held shooters 1.9 points under their usual 3P%.
The matchup to watch: Oklahoma City's ball security vs Phoenix's hands.
Oklahoma City turned it over on 11.8% of possessions last season (fewest).
Phoenix forced turnovers on 15.5% (3rd most), with 9.5 steals (4th) and 4.2 blocks (25th) a game.
Shot diets.
Oklahoma City: 42.6% of shots from three (13th), 30.0% at the rim (15th).
Phoenix: 45.3% of shots from three (7th), 25.0% at the rim (29th).
Oklahoma City's defense: 2nd fewest rim attempts allowed, 25th lowest opponent three-point % (36.9%).
Phoenix's defense: 16th fewest rim attempts allowed, 2nd lowest opponent three-point % (34.7%).
Oklahoma City's offense runs through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 9.2 a game last season, 2nd most in the NBA.
1.20 points per play (top 4%), turnover on 9% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Oklahoma City's roll men scored 1.11 (15th in the league). Chet Holmgren alone: 1.33.
Phoenix faced 15.2 of those a game (28th most) and ranked 11th defending them. Against the roll man: 24th.
In the sim: 1.47 Gilgeous-Alexander-to-Holmgren baskets a game (last season: 1.42).
With 8+ Gilgeous-Alexander assists, Oklahoma City wins 90.5%.
Phoenix's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, the pick-and-roll ball handler, transition, isolation. It ranked 9th, 14th, 19th, 7th in points per play on them.
Oklahoma City's defense ranked 18th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd against those same four.
Devin Booker in one split:
Spot-up shots: 1.23 points per play (top 12%), 2.5 a game.
The pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.93 points per play (top 31%), 8.1 a game.
Oklahoma City's defense: 2nd against the pick-and-roll ball handler, 18th against spot-up shots.
Where Phoenix can hit back:
- Oklahoma City was 18th defending spot-up shots. Dillon Brooks ran 6.1 a game at 1.00 per play
- Oklahoma City was 9th defending off-screen shots. Devin Booker ran 1.8 a game at 1.02 per play
One check against real life:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 30.0 points in his 3 games against Phoenix last season, 37 of them on Nov 28. In our 5,000 sims: 36.3.
Devin Booker scored 22.5 points in his 2 games against Oklahoma City last season, 24 of them on Jan 4. In our 5,000 sims: 22.9.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Oklahoma City leads by as many as 5 in the first half; tied 59-59 at the break
- Oklahoma City's 9-0 run in the 3rd quarter is the biggest swing
- Holmgren puts Oklahoma City ahead for good with 3:20 left in the 3rd
- Gilgeous-Alexander finds Holmgren 4 times
- McCain goes 7 of 12 off Oklahoma City's bench
- Oklahoma City leads by 20 at its high point in the 4th. Phoenix gets within 10. Booker scores last; final 117-100 Oklahoma City
How Phoenix wins (666 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 15.7 a game in its wins, 12.9 in its losses. At 16 or more, it wins 27%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 26%
- Booker scores 29 or more: then it wins 22%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Oklahoma City wins 86.7%. The books (Draft Kings) have Oklahoma City at 77%, ESPN's model at 81%.
Median score: Oklahoma City 117, Phoenix 101
Oklahoma City covers -10.5 in 67%
Over 220.5 in 44%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Miles Bridges rebounds line 5.5, sim 6.4; Miles Bridges assists line 2.5, sim 2.3; Miles Bridges pts+ast line 17.5, sim 16.8
- Khaman Maluach under 15.5 pts+reb (100%, sim avg 4.2)
- Khaman Maluach under 7.5 rebounds (100%, sim avg 2.4)
- Khaman Maluach under 7.5 points (99%, sim avg 1.8)
- Jordan Goodwin under 1.5 threes (75%, sim avg 0.9)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.

Most typical game, play by play (PHX score first)

Quarter 1

Q1OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores from midrange0-2

Q1PHXDevin Booker scores at the rim (assist Oso Ighodaro)2-2

Q1OKCAlex Caruso misses at the rim2-2

Q1PHXOso Ighodaro scores at the rim (assist Devin Booker)4-2

Q1OKCJaylin Williams scores three (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)4-5

Q1PHXJamaree Bouyea scores in the paint6-5

Q1OKCAjay Mitchell misses three, offensive rebound6-5

Q1OKCAjay Mitchell misses in the paint6-5

Q1PHXMiles Bridges scores corner three (assist Drew Timme)9-5

Q1OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores three9-8

Q1PHXDillon Brooks misses at the rim9-8

Q1OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores in the paint9-10

Q1PHXDevin Booker misses three9-10

Q1OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three9-10

Q1PHXCollin Gillespie scores at the rim11-10

Q1OKCIsaiah Hartenstein scores at the rim11-12

Q1PHXDevin Booker turns it over11-12

Q1OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander turns it over11-12

Q1PHXLuke Kennard scores in the paint (assist Collin Gillespie)13-12

Q1OKCAjay Mitchell misses three13-12

Q1PHXJalen Green scores at the rim15-12

Q1OKCAjay Mitchell misses corner three15-12

Q1PHXJalen Green misses from midrange15-12

Q1OKCChet Holmgren goes to the line, makes 2 of 215-14

Q1PHXDevin Booker misses in the paint15-14

Q1OKCMicah Peavy misses three15-14

Q1PHXJalen Green misses from midrange15-14

Q1OKCJared McCain scores three (assist Alex Caruso)15-17

Q1PHXMiles Bridges turns it over15-17

Q1OKCIsaiah Hartenstein misses in the paint15-17

Q1PHXDevin Booker scores at the rim17-17

Q1OKCJared McCain misses corner three, offensive rebound17-17

Q1OKCAjay Mitchell scores in the paint17-19

Q1PHXJalen Green scores three (assist Collin Gillespie)20-19

Q1OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores in the paint20-21

Q1PHXDillon Brooks scores at the rim (assist Devin Booker)22-21

Q1OKCJosh Dix scores at the rim (assist Jaylin Williams)22-23

Q1PHXJalen Green misses three22-23

Q1OKCJared McCain misses three, offensive rebound22-23

Q1OKCAlex Caruso scores at the rim (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)22-25

Q1PHXJordan Goodwin goes to the line, makes 1 of 223-25

Q1PHXJalen Green turns it over23-25

Q1OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander turns it over23-25

Q1PHXCollin Gillespie scores corner three (assist Miles Bridges)26-25

Q1OKCAjay Mitchell turns it over26-25

Q1PHXLuke Kennard misses in the paint26-25

Q1OKCJaylin Williams scores three (assist Alex Caruso)26-28

Q1PHXDevin Booker misses corner three26-28

Q1OKCChet Holmgren misses at the rim26-28

Q1PHXMiles Bridges misses in the paint, offensive rebound26-28

Q1PHXKhaman Maluach misses three26-28

Q1OKCIsaiah Hartenstein scores at the rim (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)26-30

Q1PHXKhaman Maluach misses at the rim26-30

Q1OKCJared McCain misses in the paint26-30

Q1PHXDevin Booker turns it over26-30

Quarter 2

Q2OKCJared McCain misses three, offensive rebound26-30

Q2OKCChet Holmgren misses three26-30

Q2PHXDillon Brooks scores three29-30

Q2OKCJared McCain scores at the rim (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)29-32

Q2PHXDillon Brooks misses in the paint, offensive rebound29-32

Q2PHXDevin Booker goes to the line, makes 2 of 231-32

Q2OKCIsaiah Hartenstein scores at the rim (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)31-34

Q2PHXDevin Booker scores in the paint33-34

Q2OKCChet Holmgren scores three (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)33-37

Q2PHXDevin Booker goes to the line, makes 2 of 235-37

Q2OKCChet Holmgren scores three (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)35-40

Q2PHXDevin Booker misses three, offensive rebound35-40

Q2PHXDevin Booker turns it over35-40

Q2OKCChet Holmgren misses in the paint35-40

Q2PHXDevin Booker scores at the rim (assist Rasheer Fleming)37-40

Q2OKCKenrich Williams misses corner three, offensive rebound37-40

Q2OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses in the paint, offensive rebound37-40

Q2OKCChet Holmgren turns it over37-40

Q2PHXJalen Green scores at the rim (assist Devin Booker)39-40

Q2OKCIsaiah Hartenstein goes to the line, makes 1 of 239-41

Q2PHXRasheer Fleming misses from midrange39-41

Q2OKCAjay Mitchell misses corner three39-41

Q2PHXMiles Bridges scores in the paint41-41

Q2OKCJared McCain scores three (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)41-44

Q2PHXJalen Green goes to the line, makes 2 of 243-44

Q2OKCAday Mara misses corner three43-44

Q2PHXDevin Booker goes to the line, makes 2 of 245-44

Q2OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses in the paint45-44

Q2PHXDevin Booker scores in the paint (assist Drew Timme)47-44

Q2OKCChet Holmgren misses three47-44

Q2PHXMiles Bridges goes to the line, makes 2 of 249-44

Q2OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses in the paint, offensive rebound49-44

Q2OKCChet Holmgren goes to the line, makes 2 of 249-46

Q2PHXDevin Booker misses three49-46

Q2OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores three49-49

Q2PHXRasheer Fleming misses at the rim49-49

Q2OKCChet Holmgren scores in the paint (assist Isaiah Hartenstein)49-51

Q2PHXDevin Booker misses from midrange, offensive rebound49-51

Q2PHXDevin Booker scores in the paint51-51

Q2OKCJared McCain turns it over51-51

Q2PHXDevin Booker misses three51-51

Q2OKCJaylin Williams scores in the paint51-53

Q2PHXJordan Goodwin scores at the rim53-53

Q2OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three53-53

Q2PHXCollin Gillespie turns it over53-53

Q2OKCAjay Mitchell scores in the paint (assist Isaiah Hartenstein)53-55

Q2PHXCollin Gillespie misses three, offensive rebound53-55

Q2PHXDillon Brooks scores in the paint55-55

Q2OKCJaylin Williams misses from midrange55-55

Q2PHXDevin Booker misses from midrange, offensive rebound55-55

Q2PHXJordan Goodwin misses three55-55

Q2OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander turns it over55-55

Q2PHXJalen Green scores at the rim57-55

Q2OKCChet Holmgren scores in the paint (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)57-57

Q2PHXJordan Goodwin turns it over57-57

Q2OKCAjay Mitchell scores at the rim57-59

Q2PHXDevin Booker misses in the paint, offensive rebound57-59

Q2PHXDevin Booker scores at the rim (assist Miles Bridges)59-59

Quarter 3

Q3OKCAlex Caruso misses three59-59

Q3PHXCollin Gillespie misses from midrange59-59

Q3OKCChet Holmgren scores in the paint (assist Kenrich Williams)59-61

Q3PHXLuke Kennard scores three (assist Devin Booker)62-61

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores from midrange62-63

Q3PHXRyan Dunn scores at the rim (assist Devin Booker)64-63

Q3OKCChet Holmgren scores at the rim (assist Ajay Mitchell)64-65

Q3PHXDillon Brooks scores at the rim66-65

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores in the paint66-67

Q3PHXDillon Brooks misses three, offensive rebound66-67

Q3PHXMiles Bridges scores in the paint68-67

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander turns it over68-67

Q3PHXDillon Brooks goes to the line, makes 2 of 270-67

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander turns it over70-67

Q3PHXCollin Gillespie misses three, offensive rebound70-67

Q3PHXDillon Brooks misses three70-67

Q3OKCChet Holmgren misses in the paint, offensive rebound70-67

Q3OKCIsaiah Hartenstein misses in the paint70-67

Q3PHXLuke Kennard scores at the rim72-67

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses at the rim72-67

Q3PHXJalen Green misses three72-67

Q3OKCAlex Caruso misses corner three72-67

Q3PHXLuke Kennard misses at the rim72-67

Q3OKCAlex Caruso misses corner three, offensive rebound72-67

Q3OKCChet Holmgren scores corner three (assist Isaiah Hartenstein)72-70

Q3PHXDevin Booker turns it over72-70

Q3OKCAlex Caruso misses three72-70

Q3PHXJalen Green scores in the paint74-70

Q3OKCMicah Peavy scores in the paint74-72

Q3PHXDillon Brooks misses from midrange74-72

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three, offensive rebound74-72

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses at the rim74-72

Q3PHXCollin Gillespie misses three74-72

Q3OKCJared McCain scores at the rim74-74

Q3PHXMiles Bridges misses three74-74

Q3OKCBrooks Barnhizer turns it over74-74

Q3PHXDillon Brooks misses in the paint74-74

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three, offensive rebound74-74

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores in the paint, and one74-77

Q3PHXKhaman Maluach scores corner three (assist Pat Spencer)77-77

Q3OKCChet Holmgren scores three (assist Isaiah Hartenstein)77-80

Q3PHXMiles Bridges turns it over77-80

Q3OKCAday Mara scores in the paint77-82

Q3PHXDuop Reath misses at the rim77-82

Q3OKCAday Mara turns it over77-82

Q3PHXLuke Kennard misses three, offensive rebound77-82

Q3PHXDillon Brooks turns it over77-82

Q3OKCJared McCain goes to the line, makes 2 of 277-84

Q3PHXDillon Brooks turns it over77-84

Q3OKCChet Holmgren misses in the paint77-84

Q3PHXDillon Brooks misses at the rim77-84

Q3OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses corner three, offensive rebound77-84

Q3OKCKenrich Williams misses corner three77-84

Q3PHXDevin Booker turns it over77-84

Q3OKCIsaiah Hartenstein scores at the rim (assist Josh Dix)77-86

Q3PHXMiles Bridges scores at the rim (assist Devin Booker)79-86

Quarter 4

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three79-86

Q4PHXDevin Booker misses at the rim79-86

Q4OKCAlex Caruso misses at the rim79-86

Q4PHXPat Spencer misses in the paint79-86

Q4OKCJared McCain scores at the rim (assist Kenrich Williams)79-88

Q4PHXMiles Bridges misses corner three, offensive rebound79-88

Q4PHXDevin Booker scores three82-88

Q4OKCChet Holmgren scores corner three (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)82-91

Q4PHXDevin Booker scores at the rim (assist Jalen Green)84-91

Q4OKCJared McCain misses three84-91

Q4PHXDillon Brooks misses from midrange84-91

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander scores in the paint84-93

Q4PHXMiles Bridges scores at the rim (assist Jalen Green)86-93

Q4OKCAjay Mitchell misses three86-93

Q4PHXDevin Booker misses at the rim86-93

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses from midrange, offensive rebound86-93

Q4OKCJared McCain scores three (assist Brooks Barnhizer)86-96

Q4PHXDevin Booker scores from midrange88-96

Q4OKCIsaiah Hartenstein scores in the paint (assist Jaylin Williams)88-98

Q4PHXLuke Kennard misses corner three, offensive rebound88-98

Q4PHXJalen Green misses three88-98

Q4OKCChet Holmgren scores corner three88-101

Q4PHXMiles Bridges misses in the paint88-101

Q4OKCKenrich Williams turns it over88-101

Q4PHXJalen Green turns it over88-101

Q4OKCIsaiah Hartenstein scores corner three (assist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)88-104

Q4PHXDevin Booker turns it over88-104

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses from midrange88-104

Q4PHXDevin Booker misses from midrange88-104

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three, offensive rebound88-104

Q4OKCChet Holmgren misses at the rim88-104

Q4PHXLuke Kennard misses in the paint88-104

Q4OKCChet Holmgren misses three88-104

Q4PHXDevin Booker goes to the line, makes 2 of 290-104

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three90-104

Q4PHXMiles Bridges misses three, offensive rebound90-104

Q4PHXDevin Booker scores at the rim (assist Dillon Brooks)92-104

Q4OKCIsaiah Hartenstein misses in the paint, offensive rebound92-104

Q4OKCChet Holmgren misses at the rim, offensive rebound92-104

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses from midrange, offensive rebound92-104

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three, offensive rebound92-104

Q4OKCMicah Peavy scores at the rim92-106

Q4PHXCollin Gillespie misses three92-106

Q4OKCChet Holmgren goes to the line, makes 2 of 292-108

Q4PHXCollin Gillespie misses three92-108

Q4OKCAjay Mitchell misses three, offensive rebound92-108

Q4OKCJaylin Williams scores in the paint (assist Chet Holmgren)92-110

Q4PHXDillon Brooks misses in the paint92-110

Q4OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander goes to the line, makes 2 of 292-112

Q4PHXMiles Bridges scores corner three (assist Collin Gillespie)95-112

Q4OKCJared McCain scores at the rim (assist Ajay Mitchell)95-114

Q4PHXDevin Booker misses from midrange, offensive rebound95-114

Q4PHXJalen Green scores three98-114

Q4OKCKenrich Williams scores three (assist Chet Holmgren)98-117

Q4PHXDevin Booker scores at the rim100-117

Top 10 prop ideas

The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Mon Oct 26, 8:12 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.

Player	Idea	Sim	Price
Khaman Maluach	under 15.5 pts+reb	100%	-121
Khaman Maluach	under 7.5 rebounds	100%	-136
Khaman Maluach	under 7.5 points	99%	-118
Jordan Goodwin	under 1.5 threes	75%	-208
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	over 35.5 pts+reb	74%	-115
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	over 31.5 points	72%	-114
Collin Gillespie	under 2.5 threes	70%	-191
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	over 38.5 pts+ast	70%	-118
Ajay Mitchell	under 20.5 pts+ast	69%	-123
Devin Booker	under 5.5 assists	68%	-120

All player props

Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.

Player	Market	Line	Sim avg	Sim over	Lean
Khaman Maluach	pts+reb	15.5	4.2	0%	under 100%
Khaman Maluach	rebounds	7.5	2.4	0%	under 100%
Khaman Maluach	points	7.5	1.8	1%	under 99%
Jordan Goodwin	threes	1.5	0.9	25%	under 75%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	pts+reb	35.5	40.9	74%	over 74%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	points	31.5	36.3	72%	over 72%
Collin Gillespie	threes	2.5	1.9	30%	under 70%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	pts+ast	38.5	42.9	70%	over 70%
Ajay Mitchell	pts+ast	20.5	17.9	31%	under 69%
Devin Booker	assists	5.5	4.6	32%	under 68%
Ajay Mitchell	points	16.5	14.2	32%	under 68%
Jordan Goodwin	points	6.5	5.3	33%	under 67%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	rebounds	3.5	4.6	67%	over 67%
Ajay Mitchell	threes	1.5	1.2	33%	under 67%
Collin Gillespie	pts+ast	13.5	11.7	33%	under 67%
Dillon Brooks	pts+ast	17.5	15.5	34%	under 66%
Devin Booker	rebounds	3.5	4.4	65%	over 65%
Ajay Mitchell	pts+reb	19.5	17.7	36%	under 64%
Isaiah Hartenstein	rebounds	7.5	8.7	64%	over 64%
Jalen Green	assists	2.5	2.1	36%	under 64%
Jordan Goodwin	rebounds	3.5	4.4	63%	over 63%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	threes	1.5	2.1	63%	over 63%
Miles Bridgesnew team	rebounds	5.5	6.4	63%	over 63%
Dillon Brooks	points	15.5	14.1	37%	under 63%
Collin Gillespie	points	9.5	8.4	38%	under 62%
Jordan Goodwin	pts+reb	10.5	9.7	38%	under 62%
Dillon Brooks	pts+reb	19.5	18.0	38%	under 62%
Chet Holmgren	assists	1.5	1.4	39%	under 61%
Jalen Green	pts+ast	17.5	16.2	39%	under 61%
Isaiah Hartenstein	assists	2.5	3.1	61%	over 61%
Miles Bridgesnew team	assists	2.5	2.3	41%	under 59%
Collin Gillespie	assists	3.5	3.3	41%	under 59%
Collin Gillespie	rebounds	3.5	4.1	59%	over 59%
Dillon Brooks	assists	1.5	1.4	42%	under 58%
Devin Booker	pts+ast	28.5	27.5	42%	under 58%
Miles Bridgesnew team	pts+ast	17.5	16.8	43%	under 57%
Devin Booker	threes	1.5	1.9	57%	over 57%
Dillon Brooks	rebounds	3.5	4.0	57%	over 57%
Jalen Green	pts+reb	18.5	17.8	43%	under 57%
Chet Holmgren	rebounds	8.5	9.1	56%	over 56%
Dillon Brooks	threes	1.5	1.9	56%	over 56%
Jalen Green	threes	1.5	1.9	56%	over 56%
Jalen Green	points	14.5	14.0	45%	under 55%
Chet Holmgren	pts+ast	17.5	18.4	54%	over 54%
Ajay Mitchell	rebounds	3.5	3.5	46%	under 54%
Devin Booker	pts+reb	27.5	27.3	47%	under 53%
Collin Gillespie	pts+reb	12.5	12.5	47%	under 53%
Miles Bridgesnew team	points	14.5	14.5	47%	under 53%
Chet Holmgren	pts+reb	25.5	26.2	53%	over 53%
Jalen Green	rebounds	3.5	3.8	52%	over 52%
Ajay Mitchell	assists	3.5	3.8	52%	over 52%
Isaiah Hartenstein	pts+ast	11.5	12.0	51%	over 51%
Isaiah Hartenstein	pts+reb	17.5	17.6	49%	under 51%
Chet Holmgren	points	16.5	17.0	51%	over 51%
Miles Bridgesnew team	pts+reb	20.5	20.9	51%	over 51%
Isaiah Hartenstein	points	8.5	8.9	49%	under 51%
Miles Bridgesnew team	threes	1.5	1.7	51%	over 51%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	assists	6.5	6.6	50%	under 50%
Devin Booker	points	22.5	22.9	50%	over 50%