Gametime

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Saturday, October 24 · 14 fights · 5,000 sims each

UFC backtest: the books beat this sim on winners, and method bets that looked good in training lost on the holdout. Read it as context. Details

Main card parlays

Winner chances lean on the books: on UFC winners the books have beaten this sim, so each fight's chance is the backtest's blend, mostly the books with a small push from the sim. Rounds chances are the sim's own. Prices are the book's. Fights are independent, so a parlay's chance is the legs multiplied. Each leg carries the book's cut, so most parlays expect to lose a little; a parlay is only worth it when its legs have an edge.

1. Favorites, skipping the likeliest upset

The three most likely winners on the main card, leaving out Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov, the fight where the books' underdog has the best shot.

LegOur chancePrice
Petr YanPetr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili60%-142
Aaron PicoAaron Pico vs Losene Keita60%-148
Alexander VolkovAlexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev54%-122

Hits about 20% of the time. $100 pays $520 if every leg hits. Expected result per $100: +$3.

2. Call the upset

Most cards have an upset. The likeliest one here is the books' underdog Ramazan Temirov at 50%, paired with the two safest favorites. It sits well next to parlay 1: they share two legs, so if the upset hits this one pays, and parlay 1 can still pay too.

LegOur chancePrice
Ramazan TemirovLone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov50%-108
Petr YanPetr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili60%-142
Aaron PicoAaron Pico vs Losene Keita60%-148

Hits about 18% of the time. $100 pays $550 if every leg hits. Expected result per $100: +$0.

3. Rounds, the sim's opinion only

The main-card fights where the sim and the book disagree most on fight length, 5+ points, taking the sim's side. This is not a proven edge: the backtest found ESPN's rounds prices badly mis-calibrated, so the rounds profits it showed came from bad prices, not from the sim. The chances are the sim's own and the expected result is not trustworthy.

LegOur chancePrice
Over 1.5 roundsAaron Pico vs Losene Keita73%-154
Over 2.5 roundsLone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov64%-125
Over 4.5 roundsPetr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili80%-345

Hits about 37% of the time. $100 pays $383 if every leg hits. Expected result per $100: +$43.

Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev

Featherweight · 5 rounds · Alexander Volkanovski -110 · Movsar Evloev -110 · win chance for Movsar Evloev

Sim
54%
Books
50%
FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Alexander Volkanovski11%3%33%46%
Movsar Evloev12%6%36%54%

When it ends: R1 8% · R2 7% · R3 6% · R4 6% · distance 68%

The breakdown

  1. Alexander Volkanovski: 15-3 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Diego Lopes by decision (Feb 2026).

    Movsar Evloev: 10-0 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Lerone Murphy by decision (Mar 2026).

  2. Styles, ranked among 85 active featherweights:

    Volkanovski throws 10.5 significant strikes a minute at distance (71 of 85), lands 54% of distance strikes (1 of 85), shoots 5.6 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (39 of 85), attempts 0.6 submissions per 5 minutes on top (74 of 85).

    Evloev throws 11.5 significant strikes a minute at distance (50 of 85), lands 43% of distance strikes (52 of 85), shoots 13.0 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (9 of 85), attempts 0.3 submissions per 5 minutes on top (85 of 85).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Volkanovski gets dropped once every 172 strikes absorbed (46 of 85). Evloev scores a knockdown every 371 landed strikes (84 of 85).

    Evloev gets taken down on 42% of attempts (67 of 85). Volkanovski shoots 5.6 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (39 of 85).

  4. Evloev's engine: completes 53% of takedowns (3 of 85).

    Volkanovski gets taken down on 36% of attempts (39 of 85).

    In the sim Evloev lands 5.5 takedowns a fight.

  5. Where Volkanovski hits back: lands 54% of distance strikes (1 of 85).

    Evloev gets hit by 38% of distance strikes (9 of 85).

  6. One check against real life:

    Volkanovski landed 101 significant strikes and 1.0 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 92 and 2.0.

    Evloev landed 48 significant strikes and 6.0 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 80 and 5.5.

    Both fought Diego Lopes: Volkanovski beat Lopes by decision (Feb 2026), Evloev beat Lopes by decision (May 2023).

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • End R1: Volkanovski lands 15, Evloev lands 19; takedowns: Evloev 2
    • R2 4:00 Evloev threatens a submission, Volkanovski survives
    • End R2: Volkanovski lands 6, Evloev lands 16; takedowns: Evloev 2
    • End R3: Volkanovski lands 10, Evloev lands 16; takedowns: Evloev 1
    • End R4: Volkanovski lands 13, Evloev lands 15
    • End R5: Volkanovski lands 17, Evloev lands 5; takedowns: Volkanovski 1
    • Decision: Evloev (0-3 judges for Volkanovski)

  8. How Volkanovski wins (2,320 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 10.8%, submission 3.0%, decision 32.5%
    • Out-landing Evloev (happens in 63% of sims): then Volkanovski wins 66%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 59% of sims): then Volkanovski wins 53%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 15% of sims): then Volkanovski wins 55%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Volkanovski wins 46.4%. The books have Volkanovski at 50%.

    Volkanovski: KO 11%, sub 3%, decision 33%

    Evloev: KO 12%, sub 6%, decision 36%

    Goes the distance 68%

    Over 4.5 rounds in 71%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatAlexander VolkanovskiMovsar Evloev
Distance strikes / min10.502711.4833
Distance accuracy0.53680.4293
Opponent accuracy against0.39830.3753
Takedown tries / min0.37180.8633
Takedown accuracy0.32280.5262
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.35720.4232
Sub attempts / control min0.12320.0664
Knockdowns per landed0.00330.0027
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00580.0031
Weighted fights of history8.02016.2788
Most typical fight
R1 0:30 Movsar Evloev takes Alexander Volkanovski down
R1 1:00 Alexander Volkanovski works back to the feet
R1 3:00 Movsar Evloev takes Alexander Volkanovski down
R1 3:00 Alexander Volkanovski works back to the feet
End R1: Alexander Volkanovski lands 15, Movsar Evloev lands 19
R2 0:30 Movsar Evloev takes Alexander Volkanovski down
R2 2:00 Alexander Volkanovski works back to the feet
R2 2:30 Movsar Evloev takes Alexander Volkanovski down
R2 4:00 Movsar Evloev threatens a submission, Alexander Volkanovski survives
End R2: Alexander Volkanovski lands 6, Movsar Evloev lands 16
R3 4:30 Movsar Evloev takes Alexander Volkanovski down
R3 5:00 Alexander Volkanovski works back to the feet
End R3: Alexander Volkanovski lands 10, Movsar Evloev lands 16
End R4: Alexander Volkanovski lands 13, Movsar Evloev lands 15
R5 2:00 Alexander Volkanovski takes Movsar Evloev down
R5 4:00 Movsar Evloev works back to the feet
End R5: Alexander Volkanovski lands 17, Movsar Evloev lands 5
Decision: Movsar Evloev (0-3 judges for Alexander Volkanovski)

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili

Bantamweight · 5 rounds · Petr Yan -142 · Merab Dvalishvili +120 · win chance for Petr Yan

Sim
74%
Books
56%

Big disagreement with the books. Often thin history, a short-notice change or news the sim can't see.

FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Petr Yan9%4%61%74%
Merab Dvalishvili3%5%17%26%

When it ends: R1 4% · R2 5% · R3 4% · R4 4% · distance 78%

The breakdown

  1. Petr Yan: 12-4 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Merab Dvalishvili by decision (Dec 2025).

    Merab Dvalishvili: 14-3 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: lost to Petr Yan by decision (Dec 2025).

    They've met before: Yan lost to Dvalishvili by decision (Mar 2023); Yan beat Dvalishvili by decision (Dec 2025).

  2. Styles, ranked among 81 active bantamweights:

    Yan throws 10.6 significant strikes a minute at distance (56 of 81), lands 51% of distance strikes (4 of 81), shoots 5.5 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (50 of 81), attempts 0.4 submissions per 5 minutes on top (74 of 81).

    Dvalishvili throws 13.4 significant strikes a minute at distance (17 of 81), lands 36% of distance strikes (77 of 81), shoots 23.1 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (1 of 81), attempts 0.5 submissions per 5 minutes on top (63 of 81).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Dvalishvili gets tapped on 27% of submission attempts against (61 of 81). Yan attempts 0.4 submissions per 5 minutes on top (74 of 81).

  4. Yan's engine: lands 51% of distance strikes (4 of 81).

    Dvalishvili gets hit by 46% of distance strikes (60 of 81).

    In the sim Yan lands 121 significant strikes a fight.

  5. Where Dvalishvili hits back: shoots 23.1 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (1 of 81).

    Yan gets taken down on 16% of attempts (1 of 81).

  6. One check against real life:

    Yan landed 114 significant strikes and 2.3 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 121 and 2.4.

    Dvalishvili landed 100 significant strikes and 9.0 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 87 and 2.9.

    Both fought José Aldo: Yan beat Aldo by KO/TKO in R5 (Jul 2020), Dvalishvili beat Aldo by decision (Aug 2022).

    Both fought John Dodson: Yan beat Dodson by decision (Feb 2019), Dvalishvili beat Dodson by decision (Aug 2020).

    Both fought Sean O'Malley: Yan lost to O'Malley by decision (Oct 2022), Dvalishvili beat O'Malley by submission in R3 (Jun 2025).

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • R1 0:30 Yan drops Dvalishvili with a clean shot (knockdown)
    • End R1: Yan lands 23, Dvalishvili lands 20; takedowns: Dvalishvili 1
    • End R2: Yan lands 17, Dvalishvili lands 5; takedowns: Yan 1
    • End R3: Yan lands 29, Dvalishvili lands 17; takedowns: Yan 2
    • End R4: Yan lands 31, Dvalishvili lands 28
    • End R5: Yan lands 29, Dvalishvili lands 8; takedowns: Yan 1
    • Decision: Yan (3-0 judges for Yan)

  8. How Dvalishvili wins (1,298 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 3.4%, submission 5.2%, decision 17.3%
    • Out-landing Yan (happens in 18% of sims): then Dvalishvili wins 79%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 77% of sims): then Dvalishvili wins 27%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 5% of sims): then Dvalishvili wins 34%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Yan wins 74.0%. The books have Yan at 56%.

    Yan: KO 9%, sub 4%, decision 61%

    Dvalishvili: KO 3%, sub 5%, decision 17%

    Goes the distance 78%

    Over 4.5 rounds in 80%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatPetr YanMerab Dvalishvili
Distance strikes / min10.590713.3719
Distance accuracy0.51420.3571
Opponent accuracy against0.39320.4607
Takedown tries / min0.36741.5426
Takedown accuracy0.43340.3261
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.16170.3039
Sub attempts / control min0.07210.1066
Knockdowns per landed0.00440.0017
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00190.0025
Weighted fights of history7.72237.8798
Most typical fight
R1 0:30 Petr Yan drops Merab Dvalishvili with a clean shot (knockdown)
R1 2:30 Merab Dvalishvili takes Petr Yan down
R1 2:30 Petr Yan works back to the feet
End R1: Petr Yan lands 23, Merab Dvalishvili lands 20
R2 0:30 Petr Yan takes Merab Dvalishvili down
R2 4:00 Merab Dvalishvili works back to the feet
End R2: Petr Yan lands 17, Merab Dvalishvili lands 5
R3 2:00 Petr Yan takes Merab Dvalishvili down
R3 3:00 Merab Dvalishvili works back to the feet
R3 4:00 Petr Yan takes Merab Dvalishvili down
R3 4:00 Merab Dvalishvili works back to the feet
End R3: Petr Yan lands 29, Merab Dvalishvili lands 17
End R4: Petr Yan lands 31, Merab Dvalishvili lands 28
R5 1:00 Petr Yan takes Merab Dvalishvili down
R5 3:30 Merab Dvalishvili works back to the feet
End R5: Petr Yan lands 29, Merab Dvalishvili lands 8
Decision: Petr Yan (3-0 judges for Petr Yan)

Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov

Flyweight · 3 rounds · Lone'er Kavanagh -112 · Ramazan Temirov -108 · win chance for Ramazan Temirov

Sim
57%
Books
50%
FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Lone'er Kavanagh9%6%28%43%
Ramazan Temirov23%5%29%57%

When it ends: R1 17% · R2 14% · distance 57%

The breakdown

  1. Lone'er Kavanagh: 4-2 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: lost to Brandon Royval by submission in R3 (Jul 2026).

    Ramazan Temirov: 3-0 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Steve Erceg by KO/TKO in R1 (Jul 2026).

  2. Styles, ranked among 43 active flyweights:

    Kavanagh throws 10.3 significant strikes a minute at distance (29 of 43), lands 47% of distance strikes (8 of 43), shoots 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (33 of 43), attempts 1.2 submissions per 5 minutes on top (19 of 43).

    Temirov throws 10.9 significant strikes a minute at distance (20 of 43), lands 41% of distance strikes (27 of 43), shoots 4.4 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (34 of 43), attempts 1.2 submissions per 5 minutes on top (21 of 43).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Kavanagh gets tapped on 26% of submission attempts against (30 of 43). Temirov attempts 1.2 submissions per 5 minutes on top (21 of 43).

    Temirov gets tapped on 24% of submission attempts against (22 of 43). Kavanagh attempts 1.2 submissions per 5 minutes on top (19 of 43).

  4. Temirov's engine: scores a knockdown every 65 landed strikes (2 of 43).

    Kavanagh gets dropped once every 224 strikes absorbed (14 of 43).

    In the sim Temirov scores a knockdown in 42% of fights.

  5. Where Kavanagh hits back: lands 47% of distance strikes (8 of 43).

    Temirov gets hit by 36% of distance strikes (4 of 43).

  6. One check against real life:

    Kavanagh landed 71 significant strikes and 0.7 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 48 and 1.0.

    Temirov landed 35 significant strikes and 0.3 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 48 and 0.7.

    Both fought Charles Johnson: Kavanagh lost to Johnson by KO/TKO in R2 (Aug 2025), Temirov beat Johnson by decision (Mar 2025).

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • R1 1:00 Kavanagh drops Temirov with a clean shot (knockdown)
    • R1 5:00 Temirov drops Kavanagh with a clean shot (knockdown)
    • End R1: Kavanagh lands 23, Temirov lands 23
    • R2 0:30 Temirov drops Kavanagh with a clean shot (knockdown)
    • End R2: Kavanagh lands 17, Temirov lands 25
    • R3 1:00 Temirov drops Kavanagh with a clean shot (knockdown)
    • R3 2:00 Temirov drops Kavanagh with a clean shot (knockdown)
    • End R3: Kavanagh lands 25, Temirov lands 33

  8. How Kavanagh wins (2,138 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 8.7%, submission 6.1%, decision 28.0%
    • Out-landing Temirov (happens in 47% of sims): then Kavanagh wins 72%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 25% of sims): then Kavanagh wins 62%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 19% of sims): then Kavanagh wins 55%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Kavanagh wins 42.8%. The books have Kavanagh at 50%.

    Kavanagh: KO 9%, sub 6%, decision 28%

    Temirov: KO 23%, sub 5%, decision 29%

    Goes the distance 57%

    Over 2.5 rounds in 64%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatLone'er KavanaghRamazan Temirov
Distance strikes / min10.273110.9079
Distance accuracy0.46650.4093
Opponent accuracy against0.42250.3633
Takedown tries / min0.30120.2942
Takedown accuracy0.40050.3738
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.26330.2883
Sub attempts / control min0.24420.2379
Knockdowns per landed0.00580.0155
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00450.0046
Weighted fights of history4.58292.6846
Most typical fight
R1 1:00 Lone'er Kavanagh drops Ramazan Temirov with a clean shot (knockdown)
R1 5:00 Ramazan Temirov drops Lone'er Kavanagh with a clean shot (knockdown)
End R1: Lone'er Kavanagh lands 23, Ramazan Temirov lands 23
R2 0:30 Ramazan Temirov drops Lone'er Kavanagh with a clean shot (knockdown)
End R2: Lone'er Kavanagh lands 17, Ramazan Temirov lands 25
R3 1:00 Ramazan Temirov drops Lone'er Kavanagh with a clean shot (knockdown)
R3 2:00 Ramazan Temirov drops Lone'er Kavanagh with a clean shot (knockdown)
End R3: Lone'er Kavanagh lands 25, Ramazan Temirov lands 33
Decision: Ramazan Temirov (0-3 judges for Lone'er Kavanagh)

Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev

Heavyweight · 3 rounds · Alexander Volkov -122 · Rizvan Kuniev +100 · win chance for Alexander Volkov

Sim
62%
Books
52%
FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Alexander Volkov20%3%39%62%
Rizvan Kuniev19%2%17%38%

When it ends: R1 17% · R2 15% · distance 56%

The breakdown

  1. Alexander Volkov: 14-5 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Waldo Cortes Acosta by decision (May 2026).

    Rizvan Kuniev: 4-1 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Tyrell Fortune by KO/TKO in R3 (Jul 2026).

  2. Styles, ranked among 49 active heavyweights:

    Volkov throws 10.2 significant strikes a minute at distance (15 of 49), lands 54% of distance strikes (6 of 49), shoots 2.0 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (45 of 49), attempts 0.6 submissions per 5 minutes on top (11 of 49).

    Kuniev throws 9.3 significant strikes a minute at distance (33 of 49), lands 45% of distance strikes (31 of 49), shoots 2.7 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (36 of 49), attempts 0.2 submissions per 5 minutes on top (46 of 49).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Volkov gets taken down on 37% of attempts (26 of 49). Kuniev shoots 2.7 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (36 of 49).

    Kuniev gets hit by 45% of distance strikes (25 of 49). Volkov throws 10.2 significant strikes a minute at distance (15 of 49).

  4. Volkov's engine: lands 54% of distance strikes (6 of 49).

    Kuniev gets hit by 45% of distance strikes (25 of 49).

    In the sim Volkov lands 58 significant strikes a fight.

  5. Where Kuniev hits back: holds top position 197 seconds per takedown (5 of 49).

    Volkov stays under 103 seconds per takedown (4 of 49).

  6. One check against real life:

    Volkov landed 50 significant strikes and 1.0 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 58 and 0.3.

    Kuniev landed 51 significant strikes and 0.0 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 46 and 0.7.

    Both fought Curtis Blaydes: Volkov lost to Blaydes by decision (Jun 2020), Kuniev lost to Blaydes by decision (Jun 2025).

    Both fought Jailton Almeida: Volkov beat Almeida by decision (Oct 2025), Kuniev beat Almeida by decision (Feb 2026).

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • End R1: Volkov lands 21, Kuniev lands 21; takedowns: Kuniev 1
    • R2 0:30 Volkov drops Kuniev with a clean shot (knockdown)
    • End R2: Volkov lands 26, Kuniev lands 8
    • End R3: Volkov lands 23, Kuniev lands 14
    • Decision: Volkov (3-0 judges for Volkov)

  8. How Kuniev wins (1,913 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 19.2%, submission 2.0%, decision 17.1%
    • Out-landing Volkov (happens in 28% of sims): then Kuniev wins 75%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 17% of sims): then Kuniev wins 49%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 18% of sims): then Kuniev wins 45%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Volkov wins 61.7%. The books have Volkov at 52%.

    Volkov: KO 20%, sub 3%, decision 39%

    Kuniev: KO 19%, sub 2%, decision 17%

    Goes the distance 56%

    Over 2.5 rounds in 62%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatAlexander VolkovRizvan Kuniev
Distance strikes / min10.17269.3393
Distance accuracy0.54290.4489
Opponent accuracy against0.43640.4481
Takedown tries / min0.13620.1789
Takedown accuracy0.43190.4341
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.36890.1813
Sub attempts / control min0.12470.0438
Knockdowns per landed0.00410.0073
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00380.0048
Weighted fights of history8.14514.0217
Most typical fight
R1 4:00 Rizvan Kuniev takes Alexander Volkov down
End R1: Alexander Volkov lands 21, Rizvan Kuniev lands 21
R2 0:30 Alexander Volkov drops Rizvan Kuniev with a clean shot (knockdown)
End R2: Alexander Volkov lands 26, Rizvan Kuniev lands 8
End R3: Alexander Volkov lands 23, Rizvan Kuniev lands 14
Decision: Alexander Volkov (3-0 judges for Alexander Volkov)

Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita

Featherweight · 3 rounds · Aaron Pico -148 · Losene Keita +124 · win chance for Aaron Pico

Sim
64%
Books
57%
FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Aaron Pico13%7%45%64%
Losene Keita23%4%9%36%

When it ends: R1 19% · R2 16% · distance 53%

The breakdown

  1. Aaron Pico: 1-1 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Patricio Pitbull by decision (Apr 2026).

    Losene Keita: 1-1 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Muhammad Naimov by KO/TKO in R1 (Sep 2026).

  2. Styles, ranked among 87 active featherweights:

    Pico throws 13.1 significant strikes a minute at distance (22 of 87), lands 49% of distance strikes (14 of 87), shoots 11.0 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (13 of 87), attempts 0.6 submissions per 5 minutes on top (76 of 87).

    Keita throws 9.9 significant strikes a minute at distance (80 of 87), lands 44% of distance strikes (48 of 87), shoots 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (70 of 87), attempts 0.9 submissions per 5 minutes on top (41 of 87).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Pico gets dropped once every 130 strikes absorbed (69 of 87). Keita scores a knockdown every 95 landed strikes (7 of 87).

  4. Pico's engine: shoots 11.0 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (13 of 87).

    Keita gets taken down on 36% of attempts (40 of 87).

    In the sim Pico lands 2.4 takedowns a fight.

  5. Where Keita hits back: scores a knockdown every 95 landed strikes (7 of 87).

    Pico gets dropped once every 130 strikes absorbed (69 of 87).

  6. One check against real life:

    Pico landed 56 significant strikes and 4.0 takedowns a fight over the last 2. The sims: 59 and 2.4.

    Keita landed 35 significant strikes and 0.0 takedowns a fight over the last 2. The sims: 40 and 0.7.

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • End R1: Pico lands 34, Keita lands 24
    • End R2: Pico lands 26, Keita lands 11; takedowns: Pico 2
    • End R3: Pico lands 28, Keita lands 21
    • Decision: Pico (3-0 judges for Pico)

  8. How Keita wins (1,782 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 23.3%, submission 3.5%, decision 8.8%
    • Out-landing Pico (happens in 19% of sims): then Keita wins 76%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 15% of sims): then Keita wins 42%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 38% of sims): then Keita wins 35%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Pico wins 64.4%. The books have Pico at 57%.

    Pico: KO 13%, sub 7%, decision 45%

    Keita: KO 23%, sub 4%, decision 9%

    Goes the distance 53%

    Over 1.5 rounds in 73%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatAaron PicoLosene Keita
Distance strikes / min13.05199.8536
Distance accuracy0.48570.4376
Opponent accuracy against0.45140.3827
Takedown tries / min0.73160.2311
Takedown accuracy0.43990.3807
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.38070.3594
Sub attempts / control min0.12230.18
Knockdowns per landed0.00450.0105
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00770.0051
Weighted fights of history1.89091.8909
Most typical fight
End R1: Aaron Pico lands 34, Losene Keita lands 24
R2 3:30 Aaron Pico takes Losene Keita down
R2 4:00 Losene Keita works back to the feet
R2 5:00 Aaron Pico takes Losene Keita down
End R2: Aaron Pico lands 26, Losene Keita lands 11
End R3: Aaron Pico lands 28, Losene Keita lands 21
Decision: Aaron Pico (3-0 judges for Aaron Pico)

Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes

Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds · Azamat Murzakanov -198 · Dominick Reyes +164 · win chance for Azamat Murzakanov

Sim
66%
Books
64%
FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Azamat Murzakanov42%4%20%66%
Dominick Reyes20%3%11%34%

When it ends: R1 32% · R2 21% · distance 31%

The breakdown

  1. Azamat Murzakanov: 7-1 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: lost to Paulo Costa by KO/TKO in R3 (Apr 2026).

    Dominick Reyes: 10-5 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Johnny Walker by decision (Apr 2026).

  2. Styles, ranked among 48 active light heavyweights:

    Murzakanov throws 8.0 significant strikes a minute at distance (41 of 48), lands 48% of distance strikes (15 of 48), shoots 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (25 of 48), attempts 0.9 submissions per 5 minutes on top (12 of 48).

    Reyes throws 8.1 significant strikes a minute at distance (40 of 48), lands 49% of distance strikes (13 of 48), shoots 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (44 of 48), attempts 0.8 submissions per 5 minutes on top (14 of 48).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Reyes gets dropped once every 103 strikes absorbed (37 of 48). Murzakanov scores a knockdown every 71 landed strikes (3 of 48).

  4. Murzakanov's engine: scores a knockdown every 71 landed strikes (3 of 48).

    Reyes gets dropped once every 103 strikes absorbed (37 of 48).

    In the sim Murzakanov scores a knockdown in 43% of fights.

  5. Where Reyes hits back: lands 49% of distance strikes (13 of 48).

    Murzakanov gets hit by 44% of distance strikes (18 of 48).

  6. One check against real life:

    Murzakanov landed 21 significant strikes and 0.3 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 38 and 0.5.

    Reyes landed 16 significant strikes and 0.0 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 34 and 0.2.

    Both fought Dustin Jacoby: Murzakanov beat Jacoby by decision (Apr 2023), Reyes beat Jacoby by KO/TKO in R1 (Jun 2024).

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • R1 2:00 Murzakanov lands flush and finishes it: KO/TKO

  8. How Reyes wins (1,714 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 20.3%, submission 2.7%, decision 11.2%
    • Out-landing Murzakanov (happens in 38% of sims): then Reyes wins 59%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 24% of sims): then Reyes wins 42%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Murzakanov wins 65.7%. The books have Murzakanov at 64%.

    Murzakanov: KO 42%, sub 4%, decision 20%

    Reyes: KO 20%, sub 3%, decision 11%

    Goes the distance 31%

    Over 1.5 rounds in 57%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatAzamat MurzakanovDominick Reyes
Distance strikes / min8.02388.0584
Distance accuracy0.48380.4856
Opponent accuracy against0.44270.4882
Takedown tries / min0.27740.1139
Takedown accuracy0.29810.3411
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.26730.2475
Sub attempts / control min0.17430.163
Knockdowns per landed0.01420.0096
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00770.0097
Weighted fights of history5.52837.5455
Most typical fight
R1 2:00 Azamat Murzakanov lands flush and finishes it: KO/TKO

Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds · Nikita Krylov +440 · Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev -600 · win chance for Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Sim
54%
Books
82%

Big disagreement with the books. Often thin history, a short-notice change or news the sim can't see.

FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Nikita Krylov19%10%16%46%
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev31%15%8%54%

When it ends: R1 38% · R2 24% · distance 24%

The breakdown

  1. Nikita Krylov: 8-8 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: lost to Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO in R3 (Jul 2026).

    Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev: 4-0 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Julius Walker by KO/TKO in R1 (Jun 2026).

  2. Styles, ranked among 48 active light heavyweights:

    Krylov throws 10.9 significant strikes a minute at distance (9 of 48), lands 45% of distance strikes (30 of 48), shoots 9.4 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (8 of 48), attempts 0.8 submissions per 5 minutes on top (16 of 48).

    Yakhyaev throws 9.6 significant strikes a minute at distance (27 of 48), lands 47% of distance strikes (24 of 48), shoots 6.9 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (15 of 48), attempts 1.3 submissions per 5 minutes on top (6 of 48).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Krylov gets taken down on 38% of attempts (37 of 48). Yakhyaev shoots 6.9 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (15 of 48).

    Yakhyaev gets taken down on 33% of attempts (26 of 48). Krylov shoots 9.4 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (8 of 48).

  4. Yakhyaev's engine: scores a knockdown every 66 landed strikes (2 of 48).

    Krylov gets dropped once every 126 strikes absorbed (23 of 48).

    In the sim Yakhyaev scores a knockdown in 33% of fights.

  5. Where Krylov hits back: shoots 9.4 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (8 of 48).

    Yakhyaev gets taken down on 33% of attempts (26 of 48).

  6. One check against real life:

    Krylov landed 46 significant strikes and 1.3 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 36 and 1.3.

    Yakhyaev landed 6 significant strikes and 1.0 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 30 and 1.1.

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • R1 1:00 Yakhyaev lands flush and finishes it: KO/TKO

  8. How Krylov wins (2,285 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 19.1%, submission 10.2%, decision 16.5%
    • Out-landing Yakhyaev (happens in 60% of sims): then Krylov wins 62%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 37% of sims): then Krylov wins 63%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 22% of sims): then Krylov wins 56%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Krylov wins 45.7%. The books have Krylov at 18%.

    Krylov: KO 19%, sub 10%, decision 16%

    Yakhyaev: KO 31%, sub 15%, decision 8%

    Goes the distance 24%

    Over 1.5 rounds in 50%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatNikita KrylovAbdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
Distance strikes / min10.8539.621
Distance accuracy0.45460.4662
Opponent accuracy against0.44610.4504
Takedown tries / min0.62870.4618
Takedown accuracy0.3840.4174
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.37930.3268
Sub attempts / control min0.15140.2541
Knockdowns per landed0.0080.0152
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00790.0081
Weighted fights of history7.72233.3917
Most typical fight
R1 1:00 Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev lands flush and finishes it: KO/TKO

Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston

Middleweight · 3 rounds · Abus Magomedov -125 · Cam Rowston +105 · win chance for Cam Rowston

Sim
51%
Books
47%
FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Abus Magomedov11%16%22%49%
Cam Rowston22%5%24%51%

When it ends: R1 22% · R2 18% · distance 46%

The breakdown

  1. Abus Magomedov: 5-3 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Michal Oleksiejczuk by submission in R1 (Jun 2026).

    Cam Rowston: 4-1 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Robert Bryczek by decision (May 2026).

  2. Styles, ranked among 75 active middleweights:

    Magomedov throws 9.1 significant strikes a minute at distance (62 of 75), lands 46% of distance strikes (30 of 75), shoots 6.3 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (32 of 75), attempts 0.9 submissions per 5 minutes on top (24 of 75).

    Rowston throws 12.2 significant strikes a minute at distance (14 of 75), lands 44% of distance strikes (51 of 75), shoots 6.8 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (26 of 75), attempts 0.5 submissions per 5 minutes on top (65 of 75).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Magomedov gets dropped once every 119 strikes absorbed (59 of 75). Rowston scores a knockdown every 114 landed strikes (19 of 75).

    Rowston gets taken down on 47% of attempts (73 of 75). Magomedov shoots 6.3 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (32 of 75).

  4. Rowston's engine: holds top position 149 seconds per takedown (8 of 75).

    Magomedov stays under 153 seconds per takedown (67 of 75).

    In the sim Rowston spends 1.0 minutes on top a fight.

  5. Where Magomedov hits back: completes 47% of takedowns (5 of 75).

    Rowston gets taken down on 47% of attempts (73 of 75).

  6. One check against real life:

    Magomedov landed 33 significant strikes and 0.7 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 39 and 1.8.

    Rowston landed 49 significant strikes and 1.0 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 43 and 0.9.

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • End R1: Magomedov lands 17, Rowston lands 13; takedowns: Rowston 2
    • End R2: Magomedov lands 13, Rowston lands 32; takedowns: Rowston 1
    • End R3: Magomedov lands 13, Rowston lands 19; takedowns: Magomedov 1
    • Decision: Rowston (0-3 judges for Magomedov)

  8. How Magomedov wins (2,471 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 11.4%, submission 16.2%, decision 21.8%
    • Out-landing Rowston (happens in 43% of sims): then Magomedov wins 77%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 54% of sims): then Magomedov wins 58%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 20% of sims): then Magomedov wins 54%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Magomedov wins 49.4%. The books have Magomedov at 53%.

    Magomedov: KO 11%, sub 16%, decision 22%

    Rowston: KO 22%, sub 5%, decision 24%

    Goes the distance 46%

    Over 1.5 rounds in 69%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatAbus MagomedovCam Rowston
Distance strikes / min9.117912.2009
Distance accuracy0.4610.4404
Opponent accuracy against0.4290.457
Takedown tries / min0.4170.4524
Takedown accuracy0.47120.3892
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.28260.4737
Sub attempts / control min0.17520.0965
Knockdowns per landed0.00740.0088
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00840.0053
Weighted fights of history5.52834.0217
Most typical fight
R1 4:30 Cam Rowston takes Abus Magomedov down
R1 4:30 Abus Magomedov works back to the feet
R1 5:00 Cam Rowston takes Abus Magomedov down
End R1: Abus Magomedov lands 17, Cam Rowston lands 13
R2 3:00 Cam Rowston takes Abus Magomedov down
End R2: Abus Magomedov lands 13, Cam Rowston lands 32
R3 5:00 Abus Magomedov takes Cam Rowston down
End R3: Abus Magomedov lands 13, Cam Rowston lands 19
Decision: Cam Rowston (0-3 judges for Abus Magomedov)

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev

Lightweight · 3 rounds · Grant Dawson -115 · Nurullo Aliev -105 · win chance for Grant Dawson

Sim
59%
Books
51%
FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Grant Dawson12%12%35%59%
Nurullo Aliev15%5%20%41%

When it ends: R1 18% · R2 15% · distance 55%

The breakdown

  1. Grant Dawson: 13-2 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Mateusz Rębecki by submission in R3 (May 2026).

    Nurullo Aliev: 5-0 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Mike Davis by decision (Jul 2026).

  2. Styles, ranked among 96 active lightweights:

    Dawson throws 12.9 significant strikes a minute at distance (35 of 96), lands 39% of distance strikes (82 of 96), shoots 18.3 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (4 of 96), attempts 0.7 submissions per 5 minutes on top (47 of 96).

    Aliev throws 10.5 significant strikes a minute at distance (80 of 96), lands 40% of distance strikes (77 of 96), shoots 13.0 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (11 of 96), attempts 0.4 submissions per 5 minutes on top (89 of 96).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Dawson gets hit by 49% of distance strikes (85 of 96). Aliev throws 10.5 significant strikes a minute at distance (80 of 96).

  4. Dawson's engine: shoots 18.3 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (4 of 96).

    Aliev gets taken down on 29% of attempts (21 of 96).

    In the sim Dawson lands 2.2 takedowns a fight.

  5. Where Aliev hits back: completes 46% of takedowns (3 of 96).

    Dawson gets taken down on 31% of attempts (31 of 96).

  6. One check against real life:

    Dawson landed 33 significant strikes and 2.3 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 42 and 2.2.

    Aliev landed 33 significant strikes and 3.7 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 34 and 1.8.

    Both fought Joe Solecki: Dawson beat Solecki by decision (Jun 2024), Aliev beat Solecki by decision (Jan 2025).

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • End R1: Dawson lands 25, Aliev lands 10; takedowns: Dawson 1, Aliev 1
    • End R2: Dawson lands 18, Aliev lands 2; takedowns: Dawson 3, Aliev 1
    • R3 0:30 Dawson drops Aliev with a clean shot (knockdown)
    • End R3: Dawson lands 6, Aliev lands 16; takedowns: Aliev 2
    • Decision: Dawson (3-0 judges for Dawson)

  8. How Aliev wins (2,059 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 15.3%, submission 5.5%, decision 20.4%
    • Out-landing Dawson (happens in 32% of sims): then Aliev wins 74%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 54% of sims): then Aliev wins 48%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 18% of sims): then Aliev wins 48%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Dawson wins 58.8%. The books have Dawson at 51%.

    Dawson: KO 12%, sub 12%, decision 35%

    Aliev: KO 15%, sub 5%, decision 20%

    Goes the distance 55%

    Over 2.5 rounds in 61%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatGrant DawsonNurullo Aliev
Distance strikes / min12.851310.5098
Distance accuracy0.39440.4014
Opponent accuracy against0.49420.4203
Takedown tries / min1.21920.8666
Takedown accuracy0.3970.4598
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.30730.2879
Sub attempts / control min0.14750.0824
Knockdowns per landed0.0040.0043
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00890.0046
Weighted fights of history7.72234.0217
Most typical fight
R1 1:30 Nurullo Aliev takes Grant Dawson down
R1 1:30 Grant Dawson works back to the feet
R1 3:30 Grant Dawson takes Nurullo Aliev down
End R1: Grant Dawson lands 25, Nurullo Aliev lands 10
R2 1:00 Nurullo Aliev takes Grant Dawson down
R2 1:30 Grant Dawson works back to the feet
R2 2:30 Grant Dawson takes Nurullo Aliev down
R2 3:30 Nurullo Aliev works back to the feet
R2 4:00 Grant Dawson takes Nurullo Aliev down
R2 4:00 Nurullo Aliev works back to the feet
R2 4:30 Grant Dawson takes Nurullo Aliev down
End R2: Grant Dawson lands 18, Nurullo Aliev lands 2
R3 0:30 Grant Dawson drops Nurullo Aliev with a clean shot (knockdown)
R3 0:30 Nurullo Aliev takes Grant Dawson down
R3 4:30 Grant Dawson works back to the feet
R3 5:00 Nurullo Aliev takes Grant Dawson down
End R3: Grant Dawson lands 6, Nurullo Aliev lands 16
Decision: Grant Dawson (3-0 judges for Grant Dawson)

Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov

Bantamweight · 3 rounds · Colby Thicknesse +440 · Asaf Chopurov -600 · win chance for Colby Thicknesse

Sim
52%
Books
18%

Big disagreement with the books. Often thin history, a short-notice change or news the sim can't see.

FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Colby Thicknesse9%10%34%52%
Asaf Chopurov8%10%30%48%

When it ends: R1 14% · R2 11% · distance 64%

The breakdown

  1. Colby Thicknesse: 2-1 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Vince Morales by decision (May 2026).

    Asaf Chopurov makes a UFC debut. The sim starts from how past debutants fought, and debutants have won about 40% against UFC veterans.

  2. Styles, ranked among 82 active bantamweights:

    Thicknesse throws 11.0 significant strikes a minute at distance (47 of 82), lands 38% of distance strikes (71 of 82), shoots 12.3 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (13 of 82), attempts 1.6 submissions per 5 minutes on top (4 of 82).

    Chopurov: no UFC numbers yet

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Thicknesse gets taken down on 44% of attempts (73 of 82). Chopurov shoots 7.2 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (37 of 82).

  4. Thicknesse's engine: holds top position 148 seconds per takedown (2 of 82).

    Chopurov stays under 93 seconds per takedown (45 of 82).

    In the sim Thicknesse spends 1.0 minutes on top a fight.

  5. Where Chopurov hits back: scores a knockdown every 194 landed strikes (30 of 82).

    Thicknesse gets dropped once every 270 strikes absorbed (29 of 82).

  6. One check against real life:

    Thicknesse landed 49 significant strikes and 0.7 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 47 and 1.2.

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • End R1: Thicknesse lands 22, Chopurov lands 18; takedowns: Thicknesse 1
    • End R2: Thicknesse lands 23, Chopurov lands 7; takedowns: Thicknesse 1
    • R3 4:30 Chopurov threatens a submission, Thicknesse survives
    • End R3: Thicknesse lands 22, Chopurov lands 22; takedowns: Chopurov 1
    • Decision: Thicknesse (3-0 judges for Thicknesse)

  8. How Chopurov wins (2,388 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 7.8%, submission 9.6%, decision 30.4%
    • Out-landing Thicknesse (happens in 42% of sims): then Chopurov wins 81%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 52% of sims): then Chopurov wins 57%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 14% of sims): then Chopurov wins 59%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Thicknesse wins 52.2%. The books have Thicknesse at 18%.

    Thicknesse: KO 9%, sub 10%, decision 34%

    Chopurov: KO 8%, sub 10%, decision 30%

    Goes the distance 64%

    Over 2.5 rounds in 70%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatColby ThicknesseAsaf Chopurov
Distance strikes / min11.011211.4079
Distance accuracy0.37940.4258
Opponent accuracy against0.42280.4258
Takedown tries / min0.82060.4828
Takedown accuracy0.17620.3491
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.4380.3491
Sub attempts / control min0.32960.1676
Knockdowns per landed0.00360.0052
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00370.0052
Weighted fights of history2.68460
Most typical fight
R1 3:00 Colby Thicknesse takes Asaf Chopurov down
R1 3:00 Asaf Chopurov works back to the feet
End R1: Colby Thicknesse lands 22, Asaf Chopurov lands 18
R2 2:30 Colby Thicknesse takes Asaf Chopurov down
R2 4:30 Asaf Chopurov works back to the feet
End R2: Colby Thicknesse lands 23, Asaf Chopurov lands 7
R3 3:00 Asaf Chopurov takes Colby Thicknesse down
R3 4:30 Asaf Chopurov threatens a submission, Colby Thicknesse survives
R3 4:30 Colby Thicknesse works back to the feet
End R3: Colby Thicknesse lands 22, Asaf Chopurov lands 22
Decision: Colby Thicknesse (3-0 judges for Colby Thicknesse)

Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun

Middleweight · 3 rounds · Abubakar Vagaev -162 · Jacob Malkoun +136 · win chance for Jacob Malkoun

Sim
59%
Books
41%

Big disagreement with the books. Often thin history, a short-notice change or news the sim can't see.

FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Abubakar Vagaev13%7%22%41%
Jacob Malkoun14%7%38%59%

When it ends: R1 16% · R2 13% · distance 60%

The breakdown

  1. Abubakar Vagaev: 1-0 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Saygid Izagakhmaev by decision (Jul 2026).

    Jacob Malkoun: 6-3 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Gerald Meerschaert by decision (May 2026).

  2. Styles, ranked among 76 active middleweights:

    Vagaev throws 11.1 significant strikes a minute at distance (32 of 76), lands 40% of distance strikes (70 of 76), shoots 10.9 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (13 of 76), attempts 0.5 submissions per 5 minutes on top (69 of 76).

    Malkoun throws 12.0 significant strikes a minute at distance (19 of 76), lands 51% of distance strikes (8 of 76), shoots 16.5 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (4 of 76), attempts 0.7 submissions per 5 minutes on top (42 of 76).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Malkoun gets taken down on 36% of attempts (43 of 76). Vagaev shoots 10.9 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (13 of 76).

  4. Malkoun's engine: shoots 16.5 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (4 of 76).

    Vagaev gets taken down on 34% of attempts (36 of 76).

    In the sim Malkoun lands 2.4 takedowns a fight.

  5. Where Vagaev hits back: throws 11.1 significant strikes a minute at distance (32 of 76).

    Malkoun gets hit by 41% of distance strikes (15 of 76).

  6. One check against real life:

    Vagaev landed 27 significant strikes and 4.0 takedowns a fight over the last 1. The sims: 39 and 1.9.

    Malkoun landed 58 significant strikes and 1.7 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 47 and 2.4.

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • R1 4:30 Malkoun drops Vagaev with a clean shot (knockdown)
    • End R1: Vagaev lands 9, Malkoun lands 30; takedowns: Malkoun 1
    • End R2: Vagaev lands 10, Malkoun lands 12; takedowns: Vagaev 1, Malkoun 1
    • End R3: Vagaev lands 11, Malkoun lands 9; takedowns: Vagaev 1, Malkoun 1
    • Decision: Malkoun (0-3 judges for Vagaev)

  8. How Vagaev wins (2,063 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 12.6%, submission 7.1%, decision 21.6%
    • Out-landing Malkoun (happens in 34% of sims): then Vagaev wins 75%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 57% of sims): then Vagaev wins 49%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 17% of sims): then Vagaev wins 46%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Vagaev wins 41.3%. The books have Vagaev at 59%.

    Vagaev: KO 13%, sub 7%, decision 22%

    Malkoun: KO 14%, sub 7%, decision 38%

    Goes the distance 60%

    Over 2.5 rounds in 65%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatAbubakar VagaevJacob Malkoun
Distance strikes / min11.117611.9934
Distance accuracy0.40390.5138
Opponent accuracy against0.40890.4127
Takedown tries / min0.72921.0995
Takedown accuracy0.37620.4203
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.33660.3599
Sub attempts / control min0.09030.1338
Knockdowns per landed0.00610.0048
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.0060.0053
Weighted fights of history15.9252
Most typical fight
R1 2:30 Jacob Malkoun takes Abubakar Vagaev down
R1 4:00 Abubakar Vagaev works back to the feet
R1 4:30 Jacob Malkoun drops Abubakar Vagaev with a clean shot (knockdown)
End R1: Abubakar Vagaev lands 9, Jacob Malkoun lands 30
R2 0:30 Abubakar Vagaev takes Jacob Malkoun down
R2 2:00 Jacob Malkoun works back to the feet
R2 3:30 Jacob Malkoun takes Abubakar Vagaev down
R2 5:00 Abubakar Vagaev works back to the feet
End R2: Abubakar Vagaev lands 10, Jacob Malkoun lands 12
R3 1:00 Abubakar Vagaev takes Jacob Malkoun down
R3 2:30 Jacob Malkoun works back to the feet
R3 3:30 Jacob Malkoun takes Abubakar Vagaev down
End R3: Abubakar Vagaev lands 11, Jacob Malkoun lands 9
Decision: Jacob Malkoun (0-3 judges for Abubakar Vagaev)

Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos

Featherweight · 3 rounds · Bolaji Oki -105 · Daniel Santos -115 · win chance for Bolaji Oki

Sim
58%
Books
49%
FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Bolaji Oki17%3%38%58%
Daniel Santos24%4%14%42%

When it ends: R1 20% · R2 16% · distance 52%

The breakdown

  1. Bolaji Oki: 3-3 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: lost to Manoel Sousa by KO/TKO in R3 (Mar 2026).

    Daniel Santos: 4-2 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: lost to Dooho Choi by KO/TKO in R2 (May 2026).

  2. Styles, ranked among 86 active featherweights:

    Oki throws 15.5 significant strikes a minute at distance (5 of 86), lands 44% of distance strikes (47 of 86), shoots 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (62 of 86), attempts 0.6 submissions per 5 minutes on top (76 of 86).

    Santos throws 15.8 significant strikes a minute at distance (4 of 86), lands 38% of distance strikes (78 of 86), shoots 10.4 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (14 of 86), attempts 0.4 submissions per 5 minutes on top (84 of 86).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Oki gets dropped once every 116 strikes absorbed (76 of 86). Santos scores a knockdown every 171 landed strikes (45 of 86).

    Santos gets hit by 48% of distance strikes (76 of 86). Oki throws 15.5 significant strikes a minute at distance (5 of 86).

  4. Oki's engine: throws 15.5 significant strikes a minute at distance (5 of 86).

    Santos gets hit by 48% of distance strikes (76 of 86).

    In the sim Oki lands 72 significant strikes a fight.

  5. Where Santos hits back: shoots 10.4 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (14 of 86).

    Oki gets taken down on 33% of attempts (33 of 86).

  6. One check against real life:

    Oki landed 86 significant strikes and 0.3 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 72 and 0.8.

    Santos landed 63 significant strikes and 2.3 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 51 and 1.6.

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • End R1: Oki lands 25, Santos lands 11; takedowns: Oki 1, Santos 2
    • End R2: Oki lands 16, Santos lands 16; takedowns: Santos 3
    • End R3: Oki lands 45, Santos lands 19; takedowns: Santos 1
    • Decision: Oki (3-0 judges for Oki)

  8. How Santos wins (2,085 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 24.3%, submission 3.7%, decision 13.7%
    • Out-landing Oki (happens in 20% of sims): then Santos wins 82%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 46% of sims): then Santos wins 42%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 32% of sims): then Santos wins 45%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Oki wins 58.3%. The books have Oki at 49%.

    Oki: KO 17%, sub 3%, decision 38%

    Santos: KO 24%, sub 4%, decision 14%

    Goes the distance 52%

    Over 2.5 rounds in 58%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatBolaji OkiDaniel Santos
Distance strikes / min15.513415.7838
Distance accuracy0.43810.3761
Opponent accuracy against0.37410.475
Takedown tries / min0.25070.6954
Takedown accuracy0.42410.3387
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.33470.3323
Sub attempts / control min0.11810.0727
Knockdowns per landed0.00550.0059
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00860.0061
Weighted fights of history4.58294.5829
Most typical fight
R1 0:30 Daniel Santos takes Bolaji Oki down
R1 2:30 Bolaji Oki works back to the feet
R1 3:30 Daniel Santos takes Bolaji Oki down
R1 4:00 Bolaji Oki works back to the feet
R1 4:30 Bolaji Oki takes Daniel Santos down
End R1: Bolaji Oki lands 25, Daniel Santos lands 11
R2 0:30 Daniel Santos takes Bolaji Oki down
R2 0:30 Bolaji Oki works back to the feet
R2 1:00 Daniel Santos takes Bolaji Oki down
R2 1:30 Bolaji Oki works back to the feet
R2 2:30 Daniel Santos takes Bolaji Oki down
End R2: Bolaji Oki lands 16, Daniel Santos lands 16
R3 4:30 Daniel Santos takes Bolaji Oki down
R3 4:30 Bolaji Oki works back to the feet
End R3: Bolaji Oki lands 45, Daniel Santos lands 19
Decision: Bolaji Oki (3-0 judges for Bolaji Oki)

Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon

Lightweight · 3 rounds · Kody Steele -162 · Noah Gugnon +136 · win chance for Noah Gugnon

Sim
58%
Books
41%

Big disagreement with the books. Often thin history, a short-notice change or news the sim can't see.

FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Kody Steele18%11%14%42%
Noah Gugnon13%13%32%58%

When it ends: R1 23% · R2 18% · distance 45%

The breakdown

  1. Kody Steele: 2-1 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Dom Mar Fan by submission in R1 (May 2026).

    Noah Gugnon: 1-0 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Milos Janicic by submission in R1 (Aug 2026).

  2. Styles, ranked among 97 active lightweights:

    Steele throws 12.5 significant strikes a minute at distance (45 of 97), lands 36% of distance strikes (92 of 97), shoots 5.6 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (53 of 97), attempts 1.1 submissions per 5 minutes on top (23 of 97).

    Gugnon throws 12.3 significant strikes a minute at distance (50 of 97), lands 45% of distance strikes (42 of 97), shoots 6.3 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (46 of 97), attempts 1.2 submissions per 5 minutes on top (13 of 97).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Steele gets hit by 47% of distance strikes (73 of 97). Gugnon throws 12.3 significant strikes a minute at distance (50 of 97).

    Gugnon gets dropped once every 171 strikes absorbed (55 of 97). Steele scores a knockdown every 152 landed strikes (32 of 97).

  4. Gugnon's engine: attempts 1.2 submissions per 5 minutes on top (13 of 97).

    Steele gets tapped on 32% of submission attempts against (43 of 97).

    In the sim Gugnon wins by submission 13% of the time.

  5. Where Steele hits back: scores a knockdown every 152 landed strikes (32 of 97).

    Gugnon gets dropped once every 171 strikes absorbed (55 of 97).

  6. One check against real life:

    Steele landed 36 significant strikes and 0.7 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 42 and 1.0.

    Gugnon landed 5 significant strikes and 0.0 takedowns a fight over the last 1. The sims: 54 and 1.0.

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • End R1: Steele lands 20, Gugnon lands 26; takedowns: Gugnon 1
    • End R2: Steele lands 22, Gugnon lands 40; takedowns: Gugnon 1
    • R3 5:00 Gugnon drops Steele with a clean shot (knockdown)
    • End R3: Steele lands 23, Gugnon lands 25; takedowns: Steele 1
    • Decision: Gugnon (0-3 judges for Steele)

  8. How Steele wins (2,103 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 17.6%, submission 10.7%, decision 13.7%
    • Out-landing Gugnon (happens in 30% of sims): then Steele wins 76%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 27% of sims): then Steele wins 54%
    • Scoring a knockdown (happens in 23% of sims): then Steele wins 45%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Steele wins 42.1%. The books have Steele at 59%.

    Steele: KO 18%, sub 11%, decision 14%

    Gugnon: KO 13%, sub 13%, decision 32%

    Goes the distance 45%

    Over 2.5 rounds in 52%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatKody SteeleNoah Gugnon
Distance strikes / min12.456112.2656
Distance accuracy0.36020.4501
Opponent accuracy against0.47210.428
Takedown tries / min0.3730.4179
Takedown accuracy0.32180.3448
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.32740.3447
Sub attempts / control min0.21710.2444
Knockdowns per landed0.00660.0059
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00590.0058
Weighted fights of history2.68461
Most typical fight
R1 3:00 Noah Gugnon takes Kody Steele down
R1 4:00 Kody Steele works back to the feet
End R1: Kody Steele lands 20, Noah Gugnon lands 26
R2 1:30 Noah Gugnon takes Kody Steele down
R2 1:30 Kody Steele works back to the feet
End R2: Kody Steele lands 22, Noah Gugnon lands 40
R3 1:30 Kody Steele takes Noah Gugnon down
R3 3:00 Noah Gugnon works back to the feet
R3 5:00 Noah Gugnon drops Kody Steele with a clean shot (knockdown)
End R3: Kody Steele lands 23, Noah Gugnon lands 25
Decision: Noah Gugnon (0-3 judges for Kody Steele)

Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari

Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds · Iasmin Lucindo -395 · Nicolle Caliari +310 · win chance for Iasmin Lucindo

Sim
58%
Books
77%

Big disagreement with the books. Often thin history, a short-notice change or news the sim can't see.

FighterKO/TKOSubDecisionWins
Iasmin Lucindo6%8%44%58%
Nicolle Caliari3%15%24%42%

When it ends: R1 12% · R2 10% · distance 69%

The breakdown

  1. Iasmin Lucindo: 5-2 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Angela Hill by decision (Aug 2025).

    Nicolle Caliari: 2-2 in the UFC in our data (since 2016). Last out: beat Shauna Bannon by submission in R3 (May 2026).

  2. Styles, ranked among 45 active women's strawweights:

    Lucindo throws 10.9 significant strikes a minute at distance (39 of 45), lands 42% of distance strikes (22 of 45), shoots 6.9 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (17 of 45), attempts 0.3 submissions per 5 minutes on top (40 of 45).

    Caliari throws 12.7 significant strikes a minute at distance (27 of 45), lands 38% of distance strikes (37 of 45), shoots 14.5 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (3 of 45), attempts 0.8 submissions per 5 minutes on top (11 of 45).

  3. Who gets hunted:

    Caliari gets dropped once every 342 strikes absorbed (36 of 45). Lucindo scores a knockdown every 872 landed strikes (33 of 45).

  4. Lucindo's engine: completes 47% of takedowns (4 of 45).

    Caliari gets taken down on 37% of attempts (26 of 45).

    In the sim Lucindo lands 1.8 takedowns a fight.

  5. Where Caliari hits back: shoots 14.5 takedowns per 15 minutes on the feet (3 of 45).

    Lucindo gets taken down on 34% of attempts (17 of 45).

  6. One check against real life:

    Lucindo landed 35 significant strikes and 2.3 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 50 and 1.8.

    Caliari landed 40 significant strikes and 2.7 takedowns a fight over the last 3. The sims: 41 and 1.8.

  7. Things you'll notice in the sim:

    • End R1: Lucindo lands 32, Caliari lands 31; takedowns: Caliari 1
    • End R2: Lucindo lands 22, Caliari lands 22
    • End R3: Lucindo lands 35, Caliari lands 15; takedowns: Lucindo 1
    • Decision: Lucindo (3-0 judges for Lucindo)

  8. How Caliari wins (2,114 of the 5,000):

    • By KO/TKO 3.1%, submission 14.9%, decision 24.3%
    • Out-landing Lucindo (happens in 32% of sims): then Caliari wins 82%
    • Landing 2+ takedowns (happens in 56% of sims): then Caliari wins 50%

  9. Across all 5,000 sims:

    Lucindo wins 57.7%. The books have Lucindo at 77%.

    Lucindo: KO 6%, sub 8%, decision 44%

    Caliari: KO 3%, sub 15%, decision 24%

    Goes the distance 69%

    Over 2.5 rounds in 74%

  10. Fine print: one fight isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.

    Our own backtest (Oct 2025 on): the books beat this sim on winners (log-loss 0.660 vs 0.587) and on method. KOs ended 47% of UFC fights in the last six months vs 32% before, so the sim's finish odds likely run low.

Fighter profiles
StatIasmin LucindoNicolle Caliari
Distance strikes / min10.940612.7386
Distance accuracy0.42130.3767
Opponent accuracy against0.37910.4314
Takedown tries / min0.46020.965
Takedown accuracy0.47270.3205
Opp. takedown accuracy against0.33710.3733
Sub attempts / control min0.06760.1567
Knockdowns per landed0.00110.0015
Knockdowns absorbed per landed0.00120.0029
Weighted fights of history5.08293.3917
Most typical fight
R1 2:30 Nicolle Caliari takes Iasmin Lucindo down
R1 2:30 Iasmin Lucindo works back to the feet
End R1: Iasmin Lucindo lands 32, Nicolle Caliari lands 31
End R2: Iasmin Lucindo lands 22, Nicolle Caliari lands 22
R3 3:30 Iasmin Lucindo takes Nicolle Caliari down
R3 4:00 Nicolle Caliari works back to the feet
End R3: Iasmin Lucindo lands 35, Nicolle Caliari lands 15
Decision: Iasmin Lucindo (3-0 judges for Iasmin Lucindo)