Indiana @ New Orleans
Tip-off 5:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for NOP
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has New Orleans winning 53.0% of 5,000 games, against 42% from the books. The median score is New Orleans 123, Indiana 122. In the most typical game: Indiana leads by as many as 15 in the first half; Indiana leads 69-57 at the break. Indiana's 10-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. McGowens puts New Orleans ahead for good with 1:53 left in the 4th. Murphy finds Williamson 3 times. Jackson goes 7 of 11 off Indiana's bench. New Orleans leads by 4 at its high point in the 4th. Indiana pulls even late. Brown scores last; final 123-121 New Orleans.
Indiana wins 2,348 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 16+ threes (it wins 65%), wins the turnover battle (60%) or gets 28+ from Siakam (59%). The matchup to watch is Indiana's ball security against New Orleans's hands. Indiana covers -3.5 in 40% and the game goes over 238.5 in 64%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Jan 16), Indiana won in Indiana, 127-119.
Tonight Indiana is without Johnny Furphy, T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith.
New Orleans went 26-56 last season (23rd best record in the NBA).
Indiana went 19-63 last season (29th best record in the NBA).
New Orleans won the season series 1-1.
New Orleans: new: Julian Reese (from WAS), Bennedict Mathurin (from IND).
Indiana: gone: Micah Potter (now POR); new: Kelly Oubre Jr. (from PHI), Tyrese Haliburton (no NBA minutes last season), Ivica Zubac (from LAC).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
NOP: Murphy, Bey, Fears, Williamson, Murray
Bench: Queen, Jones, Missi, McGowens, Reese, Mathurin
IND: Siakam, Haliburton, Nembhard, Walker, Zubac
Bench: Brown, Huff, Oubre, Jackson, Sheppard, Slawson
Out: Furphy, McConnell, Nesmith
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +5.0 points vs their usual FG% against Herbert Jones and +4.1 against Andrew Nembhard.
The stoppers on threes: Saddiq Bey held shooters 2.9 points under their usual 3P%, Zion Williamson held shooters 1.9 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Tyrese Haliburton sees Jones on 11% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Indiana's ball security vs New Orleans's hands.
Indiana turned it over on 13.4% of possessions last season (14th fewest).
New Orleans forced turnovers on 13.2% (19th most), with 8.9 steals (9th) and 5.2 blocks (9th) a game.
Shot diets.
New Orleans: 35.5% of shots from three (26th), 41.0% at the rim (1st).
Indiana: 42.2% of shots from three (14th), 28.9% at the rim (22nd).
New Orleans's defense: 23rd fewest rim attempts allowed, 5th lowest opponent three-point % (35.0%).
Indiana's defense: 27th fewest rim attempts allowed, 14th lowest opponent three-point % (35.5%).
New Orleans's offense runs through Jeremiah Fears on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 4.8 a game last season, 38th most in the NBA.
0.84 points per play (top 50%), turnover on 16% of them.
When it goes to the roller: New Orleans's roll men scored 1.12 (14th in the league). Derik Queen alone: 1.11.
Indiana faced 18.1 of those a game (14th most) and ranked 30th defending them. Against the roll man: 21st.
In the sim: 0.71 Fears-to-Murphy baskets a game (last season: 0.73).
With 5+ Fears assists, New Orleans wins 61.6%.
Indiana's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, transition, the pick-and-roll ball handler, cuts. It ranked 26th, 20th, 4th, 21st in points per play on them.
New Orleans's defense ranked 17th, 22nd, 14th, 14th against those same four.
Pascal Siakam in one split:
Post-ups: 1.01 points per play (top 45%), 3.0 a game.
Transition: 1.11 points per play (bottom 44%), 4.6 a game.
New Orleans's defense: 22nd against transition, 25th against post-ups.
Where Indiana can hit back:
- New Orleans was 25th defending post-ups. Ivica Zubac ran 3.6 a game at 0.97 per play
- New Orleans was 23rd defending putbacks. Ivica Zubac ran 2.5 a game at 1.15 per play
One check against real life:
Jeremiah Fears scored 10.5 points in his 2 games against Indiana last season, 16 of them on Jan 16. In our 5,000 sims: 15.3.
Pascal Siakam scored 24.5 points in his 2 games against New Orleans last season, 27 of them on Jan 16. In our 5,000 sims: 22.1.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Indiana leads by as many as 15 in the first half; Indiana leads 69-57 at the break
- Indiana's 10-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- McGowens puts New Orleans ahead for good with 1:53 left in the 4th
- Murphy finds Williamson 3 times
- Jackson goes 7 of 11 off Indiana's bench
- New Orleans leads by 4 at its high point in the 4th. Indiana pulls even late. Brown scores last; final 123-121 New Orleans
How Indiana wins (2,348 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 14.6 a game in its wins, 12.7 in its losses. At 16 or more, it wins 65%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 60%
- Siakam scores 28 or more: then it wins 59%
Across all 5,000 sims:
New Orleans wins 53.0%. The books (Draft Kings) have New Orleans at 42%, ESPN's model at 39%.
Median score: New Orleans 123, Indiana 122
Indiana covers -3.5 in 40%
Over 238.5 in 64%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Kelly Oubre Jr. pts+reb line 17.5, sim 10.6; Ivica Zubac rebounds line 11.5, sim 7.6; Bennedict Mathurin pts+reb line 16.5, sim 10.3
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.2 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Yves Missi under 14.5 pts+reb (86%, sim avg 10.1)
- Yves Missi under 7.5 rebounds (86%, sim avg 5.0)
- Trey Murphy III under 26.5 pts+reb (77%, sim avg 21.8)
- Dejounte Murray under 5.5 rebounds (77%, sim avg 4.1)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (IND score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
No prop ideas logged for this game: not enough props were posted before tip-off.
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Oubre Jr.new team | pts+reb | 17.5 | 10.6 | 7% | under 93% | |
| Ivica Zubacnew team | rebounds | 11.5 | 7.6 | 8% | under 92% | |
| Bennedict Mathurinnew team | pts+reb | 16.5 | 10.3 | 9% | under 91% | |
| Bennedict Mathurinnew team | pts+ast | 14.5 | 8.9 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Ivica Zubacnew team | pts+reb | 26.5 | 19.6 | 11% | under 89% | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.new team | points | 12.5 | 7.6 | 12% | under 88% | |
| Bennedict Mathurinnew team | points | 12.5 | 7.7 | 13% | under 87% | |
| Yves Missi | pts+reb | 14.5 | 10.1 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Yves Missi | rebounds | 7.5 | 5.0 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Bennedict Mathurinnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.7 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.new team | threes | 1.5 | 0.8 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.new team | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.0 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Ivica Zubacnew team | pts+ast | 17.5 | 13.6 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Ivica Zubacnew team | assists | 2.5 | 1.6 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Ivica Zubacnew team | points | 15.5 | 12.0 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Trey Murphy III | pts+reb | 26.5 | 21.8 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | pts+ast | 28.5 | 24.0 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Dejounte Murray | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.1 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Zion Williamson | pts+reb | 27.5 | 23.1 | 23% | under 77% | |
| Herbert Jones | pts+reb | 11.5 | 8.7 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Trey Murphy III | pts+ast | 24.5 | 20.2 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Jeremiah Fears | pts+ast | 14.5 | 18.9 | 76% | over 76% | |
| Pascal Siakam | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.0 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Jeremiah Fears | pts+reb | 14.5 | 18.9 | 75% | over 75% | |
| Herbert Jones | threes | 1.5 | 1.0 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Pascal Siakam | assists | 3.5 | 2.6 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Bennedict Mathurinnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.6 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Jeremiah Fears | points | 11.5 | 15.3 | 74% | over 74% | |
| Herbert Jones | points | 8.5 | 6.3 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Dejounte Murray | assists | 6.5 | 5.3 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Herbert Jones | pts+ast | 10.5 | 8.4 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | points | 19.5 | 16.3 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Yves Missi | points | 6.5 | 5.1 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Trey Murphy III | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.4 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Trey Murphy III | points | 20.5 | 17.3 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Zion Williamson | points | 21.5 | 18.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Zion Williamson | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.5 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Zion Williamson | pts+ast | 24.5 | 21.6 | 30% | under 70% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | pts+reb | 22.5 | 19.6 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Jeremiah Fears | rebounds | 2.5 | 3.5 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Jeremiah Fears | assists | 2.5 | 3.5 | 69% | over 69% | |
| Bennedict Mathurinnew team | assists | 1.5 | 1.1 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Jarace Walker | pts+reb | 13.5 | 16.5 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Trey Murphy III | assists | 3.5 | 2.8 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Jarace Walker | rebounds | 3.5 | 4.6 | 68% | over 68% | |
| Herbert Jones | assists | 2.5 | 2.0 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Jarace Walker | points | 9.5 | 11.9 | 65% | over 65% | |
| Zion Williamson | assists | 3.5 | 3.0 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | assists | 8.5 | 7.7 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Dejounte Murray | pts+reb | 21.5 | 19.8 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Dejounte Murray | pts+ast | 22.5 | 21.0 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Jarace Walker | pts+ast | 12.5 | 14.3 | 61% | over 61% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.2 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Jeremiah Fears | threes | 1.5 | 1.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Pascal Siakam | points | 20.5 | 22.1 | 58% | over 58% | |
| Jarace Walker | assists | 2.5 | 2.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Herbert Jones | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.4 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | pts+reb | 16.5 | 15.9 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Pascal Siakam | pts+ast | 23.5 | 24.7 | 54% | over 54% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | pts+ast | 19.5 | 19.2 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Pascal Siakam | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.5 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Jarace Walker | threes | 1.5 | 1.8 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | points | 13.5 | 13.3 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | assists | 5.5 | 5.8 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Trey Murphy III | threes | 2.5 | 2.8 | 53% | over 53% | |
| Pascal Siakam | pts+reb | 26.5 | 27.1 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Dejounte Murray | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Dejounte Murray | points | 15.5 | 15.7 | 49% | under 51% |