Indiana @ Milwaukee
Tip-off 5:00 PM PT · Draft Kings lines · 5,000 sims · win chance for IND
NBA backtest: the books beat this sim on sides and totals; props run slightly above base rates. Details
How the sim saw it
The sim has Indiana winning 52.6% of 5,000 games, against 60% from the books. The median score is Milwaukee 120, Indiana 121. In the most typical game: Indiana leads by as many as 8 in the first half; Indiana leads 67-64 at the break. Indiana's 8-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing. Nembhard puts Indiana ahead for good with 8:10 left in the 4th. Nembhard finds Oubre 3 times. Toppin goes 8 of 12 off Indiana's bench. Indiana leads by 6 at its high point in the 4th. Milwaukee pulls even late. Turner scores last; final 121-120 Indiana.
Milwaukee wins 2,369 of the 5,000. Its chances rise when it makes 20+ threes (it wins 69%), wins the turnover battle (64%) or gets 25+ from Herro (57%). The matchup to watch is Indiana's ball security against Milwaukee's hands. Indiana covers -4.5 in 43% and the game goes over 238.5 in 55%.
Full breakdown
Last time they met (Mar 15), Milwaukee won in Milwaukee, 134-123.
Tonight Indiana is without Johnny Furphy, T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard.
Milwaukee went 32-50 last season (21st best record in the NBA).
Indiana went 19-63 last season (29th best record in the NBA).
Milwaukee won the season series 4-0.
Andrew Nembhard missed 2 of the 4 meetings.
Milwaukee: gone: Bobby Portis (now MIA), Kevin Porter Jr. (off the league rosters); new: Tyler Herro (from MIA), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (from MIA), Kel'el Ware (from MIA), Kasparas Jakučionis (from MIA), Caris LeVert (from DET), Kam Jones (from IND).
Indiana: gone: Micah Potter (now POR); new: Tyrese Haliburton (no NBA minutes last season), Kelly Oubre Jr. (from PHI), Ivica Zubac (from LAC), Larry Nance Jr. (from CLE), Braden Smith (rookie, #38 pick).
Who's in the sim (top five by projected minutes listed first):
MIL: Herro, Rollins, Jaquez, Kuzma, Turner
Bench: Green, Ryan, Ware, Trent, Jakučionis, Dieng, Sims, LeVert, P. Nance, Jones
IND: Haliburton, Siakam, Nembhard, Oubre, Nesmith
Bench: Zubac, Walker, Slawson, Huff, Toppin, Jackson, Brown (+2 under 8 min)
Out: Furphy, McConnell, Sheppard
No NBA history: Smith (#38 pick, 3 min from past rookies)
Who gets hunted: last season shooters hit +4.1 points vs their usual FG% against Andrew Nembhard and +3.9 against Tyler Herro.
The stoppers on threes: Kelly Oubre Jr. held shooters 1.8 points under their usual 3P%, Aaron Nesmith held shooters 1.6 points under their usual 3P%.
In the sim, Tyler Herro sees Nembhard on 43% of their shots.
The matchup to watch: Indiana's ball security vs Milwaukee's hands.
Indiana turned it over on 13.4% of possessions last season (14th fewest).
Milwaukee forced turnovers on 12.3% (25th most), with 7.4 steals (26th) and 4.0 blocks (27th) a game.
Shot diets.
Milwaukee: 45.7% of shots from three (5th), 27.1% at the rim (26th).
Indiana: 42.2% of shots from three (14th), 28.9% at the rim (22nd).
Milwaukee's defense: 9th fewest rim attempts allowed, 28th lowest opponent three-point % (37.5%).
Indiana's defense: 27th fewest rim attempts allowed, 14th lowest opponent three-point % (35.5%).
Indiana's offense runs through Andrew Nembhard on the pick-and-roll ball handler: 6.7 a game last season, 18th most in the NBA.
0.94 points per play (top 28%), turnover on 13% of them.
When it goes to the roller: Indiana's roll men scored 1.13 (12th in the league). Ivica Zubac alone: 0.98.
Milwaukee faced 15.3 of those a game (27th most) and ranked 19th defending them. Against the roll man: 27th.
In the sim: 1.24 Nembhard-to-Siakam baskets a game (last season: 2.33).
With 8+ Nembhard assists, Indiana wins 60.7%.
Milwaukee's offense lives on four plays: spot-up shots, the pick-and-roll ball handler, transition, the roll man. It ranked 2nd, 25th, 26th, 5th in points per play on them.
Indiana's defense ranked 21st, 30th, 24th, 21st against those same four.
Tyler Herro in one split:
Isolation: 1.27 points per play (top 3%), 1.9 a game.
Spot-up shots: 1.18 points per play (top 19%), 6.0 a game.
Indiana's defense: 21st against spot-up shots, 29th against isolation.
Where Milwaukee can hit back:
- Indiana was 30th defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. Ryan Rollins ran 7.0 a game at 0.89 per play
- Indiana was 29th defending isolation. Jaime Jaquez Jr. ran 2.3 a game at 0.88 per play
One check against real life:
Andrew Nembhard scored 18.0 points in his 2 games against Milwaukee last season, 22 of them on Feb 6. In our 5,000 sims: 12.8.
Things you'll notice in the sim:
- Indiana leads by as many as 8 in the first half; Indiana leads 67-64 at the break
- Indiana's 8-0 run in the 1st quarter is the biggest swing
- Nembhard puts Indiana ahead for good with 8:10 left in the 4th
- Nembhard finds Oubre 3 times
- Toppin goes 8 of 12 off Indiana's bench
- Indiana leads by 6 at its high point in the 4th. Milwaukee pulls even late. Turner scores last; final 121-120 Indiana
How Milwaukee wins (2,369 of the 5,000):
- It makes threes: 18.2 a game in its wins, 15.7 in its losses. At 20 or more, it wins 69%
- It wins the turnover battle: then it wins 64%
- Herro scores 25 or more: then it wins 57%
Across all 5,000 sims:
Indiana wins 52.6%. The books (Draft Kings) have Indiana at 60%, ESPN's model at 64%.
Median score: Milwaukee 120, Indiana 121
Indiana covers -4.5 in 43%
Over 238.5 in 55%
Leans:
Biggest role disagreements (new to the team or the league, the books see a different role): Kasparas Jakučionis pts+reb line 10.5, sim 6.5; Kasparas Jakučionis pts+ast line 10.5, sim 6.6; Kel'el Ware pts+reb line 17.5, sim 12.7
Caution: tonight the sim sits 1.5 under the books' prop lines on average, so unders are inflated
- Kyle Kuzma under 5.5 rebounds (78%, sim avg 4.0)
- Myles Turner under 5.5 rebounds (75%, sim avg 4.2)
- Pascal Siakam under 31.5 pts+reb (73%, sim avg 27.3)
- Myles Turner under 16.5 pts+reb (72%, sim avg 13.7)
Fine print: one game isn't a prediction. The percentages are the signal.
Our own backtest (2024-26): the books beat this sim on sides and totals. Prop leans beat the base rate by 1-4 points out of sample, not enough to prove profit. Treat it as a lens, not a bet.
Most typical game, play by play (IND score first)
Top 10 prop ideas
The sim's 10 strongest prop leans, logged Mon Oct 26, 8:12 AM and graded after the game. Players new to their team are left out. Not a proven edge: on 2024-26 games, picking each game's 10 strongest leans lost 4-7% at the books' prices, because the books already lean the same way. ESPN doesn't say which posted price is the over, so the price shown is the worse of the two. Prop ideas so far: 73-70 (51%), -14.4 units at the worse price.
| Player | Idea | Sim | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma | under 5.5 rebounds | 78% | -121 | |
| Myles Turner | under 5.5 rebounds | 75% | -130 | |
| Pascal Siakam | under 31.5 pts+reb | 73% | -124 | |
| Myles Turner | under 16.5 pts+reb | 72% | -123 | |
| Pascal Siakam | under 6.5 rebounds | 71% | -143 | |
| Pascal Siakam | under 3.5 assists | 68% | -169 | |
| Andrew Nembhard | under 17.5 pts+reb | 67% | -122 | |
| Pascal Siakam | under 27.5 pts+ast | 67% | -124 | |
| Andrew Nembhard | under 21.5 pts+ast | 66% | -125 | |
| Kyle Kuzma | under 17.5 pts+reb | 66% | -128 |
All player props
Sorted by how far the sim sits from 50%. Players new to their team are tagged: the sim is least sure about their role.
| Player | Market | Line | Sim avg | Sim over | Lean | Sim + you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasparas Jakučionisnew team | pts+reb | 10.5 | 6.5 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Kasparas Jakučionisnew team | pts+ast | 10.5 | 6.6 | 14% | under 86% | |
| Kel'el Warenew team | pts+reb | 17.5 | 12.7 | 15% | under 85% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | pts+reb | 22.5 | 17.3 | 17% | under 83% | |
| Kasparas Jakučionisnew team | threes | 1.5 | 0.8 | 18% | under 82% | |
| Kasparas Jakučionisnew team | points | 7.5 | 4.5 | 19% | under 81% | |
| Kel'el Warenew team | points | 10.5 | 7.1 | 20% | under 80% | |
| Kel'el Warenew team | rebounds | 7.5 | 5.6 | 21% | under 79% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.0 | 22% | under 78% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | points | 16.5 | 13.0 | 24% | under 76% | |
| Myles Turner | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.2 | 25% | under 75% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | pts+ast | 20.5 | 17.1 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.3 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | pts+ast | 29.5 | 25.6 | 26% | under 74% | |
| Pascal Siakam | pts+reb | 31.5 | 27.3 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | points | 23.5 | 19.7 | 27% | under 73% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | pts+ast | 27.5 | 23.8 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Myles Turner | pts+reb | 16.5 | 13.7 | 28% | under 72% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | pts+reb | 27.5 | 23.7 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Pascal Siakam | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.4 | 29% | under 71% | |
| Kasparas Jakučionisnew team | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.0 | 31% | under 69% | |
| Pascal Siakam | assists | 3.5 | 2.8 | 32% | under 68% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | pts+reb | 23.5 | 20.8 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | pts+reb | 17.5 | 15.4 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | points | 19.5 | 17.1 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Pascal Siakam | pts+ast | 27.5 | 24.7 | 33% | under 67% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | pts+ast | 21.5 | 19.3 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | pts+reb | 17.5 | 15.6 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Ryan Rollins | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.8 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | threes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Kasparas Jakučionisnew team | assists | 2.5 | 2.1 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | pts+ast | 15.5 | 13.8 | 34% | under 66% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | assists | 9.5 | 8.5 | 35% | under 65% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | points | 14.5 | 12.8 | 36% | under 64% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | rebounds | 4.5 | 4.0 | 37% | under 63% | |
| Ryan Rollins | threes | 1.5 | 2.1 | 62% | over 62% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | assists | 4.5 | 4.0 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | assists | 2.5 | 2.2 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Myles Turner | points | 10.5 | 9.4 | 38% | under 62% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | assists | 4.5 | 4.0 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Pascal Siakam | points | 23.5 | 21.9 | 39% | under 61% | |
| Aaron Nesmith | pts+reb | 14.5 | 13.5 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Kyle Kuzma | points | 12.5 | 11.6 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Aaron Nesmith | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.3 | 40% | under 60% | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.new team | threes | 0.5 | 0.9 | 59% | over 59% | |
| Ryan Rollins | pts+reb | 19.5 | 18.4 | 41% | under 59% | |
| Myles Turner | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 43% | under 57% | |
| Aaron Nesmith | points | 10.5 | 10.2 | 44% | under 56% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | threes | 1.5 | 1.5 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Ryan Rollins | pts+ast | 19.5 | 19.1 | 45% | under 55% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | assists | 6.5 | 6.4 | 46% | under 54% | |
| Ryan Rollins | assists | 4.5 | 4.5 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Andrew Nembhard | rebounds | 2.5 | 2.6 | 47% | under 53% | |
| Ryan Rollins | points | 14.5 | 14.6 | 48% | under 52% | |
| Aaron Nesmith | threes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 52% | over 52% | |
| Pascal Siakam | threes | 1.5 | 1.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | rebounds | 3.5 | 3.7 | 51% | over 51% | |
| Tyler Herronew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.6 | 49% | under 51% | |
| Tyrese Haliburtonnew team | threes | 2.5 | 2.7 | 50% | under 50% |